jm1220

Mid 40s this morning here. Brrrr

And very little where it’s needed over the I-35 corridor which is going into severe/extreme drought. It could be quite useful if this moved more and went NW instead of crawling north.

That trough diving in west of Dorian has to be watched closely over the next few days in case it's more amplified and can force a more NNE as opposed to NE track. Not out of the realm of possibility at all that the city/east can get a good period of rain/wind and certainly eastern Suffolk. Latest GFS has strong tropical storm conditions over Cape Cod. It will definitely cause a lot of beach erosion.

I wonder how big of an area was raked by these storms and the one earlier in the summer that also knocked out power for a chunk of Suffolk County. Maybe Islip/Bay Shore area?

Wow, there'll be lots of damage in the Ronkonkoma/Holbrook/Sayville area tomorrow as well as western Suffolk. Glad I missed the worst of the winds to my south. Would really suck losing power yet again.

Yeah, looks like the Southern State to Merrick Rd area is the place to be.

Pouring here. Not much wind or thunder.

This one may actually make it across the sound without collapsing. Hoping for something at least decent. Hearing thunder now.

Pray for major blocking to keep the storms south of us, or there will be endless cutters like last winter. Big Pacific Jet is all I need to know.

Talk about suppressed today-all that rain that was supposed to come through here on models yesterday looks like it’s headed for lower VA.

In Long Beach today. Had about 5 seconds of rain as one of the cells clipped us.

Looks like some street flooding in Long Beach, seeing some pics coming in. Gauges have over 2" around LB.

No, in Huntington. We had a heavy burst of rain for a few minutes but looked to be dying off as it went east. The LB area does look like it has a good soaking ongoing, maybe 1.5" so far.

Yet again, not optimistic east of the city for very much. So far just a couple light showers, and storms look to be training over NJ again. What is trying to sneak east is weakening, and models have little that makes it this far east. Typical Long Island summer snoozer.

Hopefully tomorrow we can finally get some rain here, lawns are seriously dried up, and practically no rain since the deluge late last month. What a dream pattern this would've been in the winter. There would be countless KU opportunities. The Euro is setting up another Baffin Bay block next week. With our luck we'll be right back to roaring Pacific jet, +NAO by Dec.

Seeing lightning in Long Beach already.

About 4” total in N Nassau/NW Suffolk.

Still not all the way there for sure though. The fact that a 40k person city (higher in the summer) still has no hospital is a major problem. Parking is even worse now from all the raised houses and additional no-parking driveways. The bay side is still as vulnerable to flooding as ever, and that's how most homes were flooded by Sandy (mine included) since that side of the city is lower in elevation than by the ocean. In many nor'easters it's a joke how much flooding there still is from the bay. The beach side is much better though.

Maybe the location right on the water added a degree to temps and it stuck less? Or they’re just wrong? LOL Congrats up there. Reminds me of the late March event we had last year that was widespread 12”+ here. It’s finally wintry looking outside here which is good but the warmth aloft screwed it from what it should’ve been. 4-5” instead of 8”.

Sleet line is south of Staten Island, around New Brunswick area. Most of NYC is snow except Rockaways. Poster from the Bronx said almost an inch already.

I agree. It's making good progress NE, and HRRR/RAP are keeping it going for a while. By the time it gets to Boston may be a different story, but the same models have been bringing the enhancement back a little in SE MA. Snow coming down good after an initial brief period of sleet in NYC. Hopefully this is one where many of us shafted ones can win at least a little.

I'm on team "stuff circled below", but crazy how much this is a nowcast event with the ludicrous shifts within 24 hours. And then we have the next event under 48 hours out subject to the same shifts based on this event. Glad I'm not doing this for a living tonight. Lots of egg about to be splattered on someone's face.

Maybe wishful thinking but the last HRRR/RAP run got a bit more potent further north. The radar does look encouraging coming into this area at least. Hopefully the sleet stops advancing-the same models change it over to snow when it gets going around NYC. But 0.5-1 degree too cold at 850 and it's mostly pellets.

If anyone's going to score from this, I'd think your area would be it, and then east toward Plymouth and the upper Cape. Hoping to get something decent down here, short range models other than the NAM are cold enough for a few inches. This winter, whatever falls is gladly taken.

If I had to pick a spot to be for this, it would definitely be just south of Roanoke, down I-81 to Bristol and the W NC mountains. You guys should get buried around there. Enjoy!