jm1220

Accumulating on colder surfaces now-moderate snow.

Light snow S Huntington.

Awesome, enjoy. Meanwhile I have a few mangled flakes now in Melville. Radar looks like things are consolidating here in western Suffolk.

A lot of times these narrow snow bands can be hard to forecast at much lead time. By the hour the evolution of this seems to be shifting.

6” salvaged for MBY on this run-I’ll gladly take it. I’ll count yesterday as 0.5”-coating of slop that melted last night.

There is a good amount of convection off the coast right now, maybe it’s really onto something?

It would be pretty hilarious if NYC ends up with more snow from this than BOS. I doubt that’s the case still but they only got 1.2” from yesterday and they’re sweating what happens today/tonight the same as us. The radar looks quite intriguing with the blowing up precip south of here but the evolution will have a mind of its own from here. Hopefully it keeps nudging east.

There’s some activity over E Suffolk that may be trying to form into a band also.

If that somehow heads its way up into Long Island, that would be sweet. Right now just chilly and dry here in Melville-there was some rain and a mangled flake or two earlier.

I wouldn’t worry yet East of the city about the precip-the low is slowly sliding East and heavy precip looks like it’s rotating NW towards the island. Overall nice trends today-hopefully many of us have 3-6” later today.

The idea that a wide swath was getting 10" of snow from that was likely overdone, yes. Maybe someone would but it seemed to be an area of more moderate snow that would be a 3-6" type deal. Hopefully tomorrow many of us get a few (more) inches, I wouldn't start hoping for more than that yet. One area it looks like I was wrong about was Boston-the city at least has been mostly rain and they're relying on part 2 for any more just like we are. They'll also be in the upper 30s or over 40 for quite a bit longer. East winds are torching them. Albany and the western half of MA have been the place to be for sure.

This is probably beyond the HRRR's good time range for part 2.

Getting windier here, trees are shaking pretty good. The ice/snow from earlier is all melted now. The dividing line for that here seemed to be around the LIE/Northern State. I drove from Long Beach this afternoon in rain/some sleet, then around Garden City the ground started to whiten. By Jericho Turnpike in Syosset it was half snow/sleet mix and the roads/ground were covered. Streets were horrendous when it was coming down.

With the north wind that would come with part 2, the surface temps should drop to freezing or close, enough for it to accumulate right away or quickly.

Hopefully the NAM is onto something for MBY anyway, was getting concerned about east of NYC consistently being dryslotted. What happens from the second part will be quite fickle and still nearly 24hrs away for most-the final story isn't close to here yet.

It’s not a surprise, and doesn’t mean much for the second part of the storm. There’s East wind driving in warm ocean air and will continue until the low starts pulling away. The question is how quick the upper low develops and where it tracks, this will cool us back down. Also, where the associated snow bands form.

Snow sleet mix in S Huntington. Coating on all surfaces including roads-which are treacherous.

I-90 jackpot on the Euro tonight and not much from any CCB. Essentially 1-3" from the city east, between the front/end. Ouch. Fills in CT as well to kick us even worse.

The I-90 feasting table will be banging and rowdy-lots of fisticuffs over a pivoting stray 3"/hr band or coastal enhancement. Hopefully the drunken Southie will slam down hard enough on his knuckles to make room for the drumstick, half pumpkin pie, leftover potatoes, cranberry sauce to mush down under the table. Or the Albany/Hudson Valley part of the table (kiddy table-they downslope a lot) will take pity on the begging dog and throw down a biscuit.

Jamaica Bay Jackpot? Flukes for the win? Broad Channel Bonanza? Thanks for your insight Don, still thinking 3-6" for NYC?

Coney Island to Sandy Hook Special on the Rgem. Party at Ambrose Light?

In all seriousness where the CCB band (table scraps) ends up and what that ends up as is far from settled. It’ll be a nowcast situation.

The redeveloping low has been trending toward hanging right off Fire Island and not clearing East until the dynamics weaken. Maybe that changes but it has to for whatever CCB to work out for East of the city.

We’re prepared for the table strips especially because the initial soaking rain cleanses our palates and sharp incisors.

I’m in LB now actually. For a fee I can remain here so you can enjoy what’s yours and I slink back on Tue AM.