jm1220

Same overall situation applies as 3 days ago. We’re the poodles begging for table strips from the upper low, Boston on west I-90 and much of upstate NY feasts on the 25-lb turkey, stuffing, potatoes, pies, cranberry sauce, cookies, etc. The NAM, Euro earlier snuck us down a drumstick and mushed up pumpkin pie no one else wanted. I guess this run is the drool from the remainder of the raccoon and stray cat slaughtered carcass.

It’s been about where the backlash banding happens for us regardless. It’s been that way for 72 hours. Boston to the Catskills along with much of upstate NY and into NNE has been where to get the best of the storm. That’s been clear for quite some time. We’re the poodle yipping for table scraps.

And you can blame that on me moving up there. Guaranteed

The 6+ is based on a fairly narrow band developing and pivoting overhead. That can easily fall apart or be over another location, and NYC gets half that or less. The zone that should be the best overall for this hasn’t changed in 3 days: I-90 in MA, and much of upstate NY.

I could see my area doing quite well or total crap. Good luck to any forecaster.

In this case it’s just where the low decides to sit and if this banding really happens. It’s an energetic upper air system so it’s possible. The low is too close to Suffolk County for too long so it takes quite a while for the rain snow line to move East out of the city.

The low hovers too close to Long Island-hopefully it can trend East a little.

I’d say NYC and northern LI get an advisory for now. 2-5” is a generally good range for this area, which could be higher if the banding does happen.

It’s not far from the 12/5/03 case where the airmass was a little colder, and rain never made it to Long Island.

Yup, I’d say I-84 corridor/Rt 17 is in a good spot.

Looks to be due to where the back end snow band sets up. Hopefully for MBY it shifts East a little more. Round 1 won’t be a big producer unless you’re way north, so we’re mostly waiting for what the second part does.

Even if the low kinda pivots near Long Island for a time it might not be bad with the crashing temps due to the upper air low and possible CCB. If anything that might hurt eastern New England since it prolongs the onshore flow. As long as the low is east of your longitude it wouldn’t be bad.

If the CCB doesn’t pan out, NYC and coast might walk away with an inch or two or even less. If it’s a bunch of light snow or snow showers behind the low, it’ll struggle to accumulate outside of cold surfaces.

They’ve been locked in for at least a good event for 2-3 days. The upper air evolution is a classic for them. The here and there bumps would eventually work out for them as long as that lasted. I-90 Albany and East (maybe Syracuse and East) should average 12” right to Boston, maybe 18” in favored upslope spots on the easterly flow. Their climo is what it is for a reason. Sucks for down here but whatever we get will be good for beginning of December regardless, and there’s a slight chance of a surprise if the CCB does blow up.

You’re right, with the high to the north, cold surface air could hang on for a while for some ZR/sleet potential for a few hours. The snow potential would be brief though-all models have the mid level warmth coming in fast.

When the CCB sets up it’ll transition to snow pretty fast. On thermals I wouldnt trust it.

Forget about the initial WAA precip unless you’re well inland-it’ll be an hour or two of non-rain that gets washed away. That part’s for SNE. Essentially it’ll act like most SWFEs act here. What makes or breaks it for 80% of this sub forum is what happens behind the low and where/whether the CCB develops. This hasn’t really changed in 36 hours now.

I wouldn’t get too excited yet about relying on a CCB to produce big accums. We won’t know until it happens where it sets up and how heavy it is. It could be a slushy inch or 6 if it really does set up overhead. The axis for where it’s primed to be best between both the initial push and whatever happens after is the same Boston to Catskills area as yesterday. Areas south of that in the Hudson Valley, maybe NW NJ and inland CT should be okay too. Below there it’s really a crap shoot where it depends almost entirely on what rotates around after the upper low cools it down.

I would vomit if Long Island sat in the dryslot for that long. Essentially to a T what happened on 4/1/97. I’d probably burn anything that would display the radar loops too.

Like other models, we live or die near the coast on what rotates behind the upper low and we cool back down. It’s nice verbatim for the northern half of LI and even NYC but it could easily be hours of barely accumulating light snow or snow showers.

That closed low and what rotates around it likely determines how this ends up for most of us. If the south trend and later occluding is real, it could be a nice surprise. They can produce like Xmas 2002 but those are the rare cases.

This is likely one for the Hudson Valley and inland CT and the rest of us wait for whatever rotates around the low on Monday. Might be some light snow showers mostly or something that can accumulate. Maybe there’s an inch or two on the front end but it quickly gets washed away. It’ll be nice to have a brief period of snow on the ground (hopefully) but unless there are major changes at this point this is one that jackpots I-90. Models are keying in on Boston to around Monticello getting the brunt of the front end snow and wrap around from the low with little warming in between.

It's at the point now where models keying in on the Boston to Catskills jackpot swath is at least meaningful. The upper air evolution and closed off 500 low are classic for a SNE clobbering event.

Boston to the Catskills is probably the best place to be for this. Hopefully table scraps rotate down our way after the brief snow to drenching.

Essentially another 4-1-97. I’ll pass on that disaster. If I remember right it was actually supposed to be an okay event around NYC and the end result was practically nothing and an endless dryslot.