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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    I'm trying to be patient too. Models on most every run showed the changeover being around 3 or 4 am here and 7 to 8 am around Knox. But the early snow/slush falling got my hopes up early.
  2. John1122
    Also Middleboro that was snowing earlier is now raining. Looked like the rain line was creeping into the snow line east of here as well. Maybe the 3 am switchover will be the case afterall.
  3. John1122
    Precip type radar I have access to shows snow here but it's 50/50 at best. Slushy nickel to quarter sized flakes and rain mix. All sleet from earlier is gone.
  4. John1122
    Absolutely pouring mix now. I'm hoping not but feeling the GFS might take home the win here. I've seen a lot of systems here but I've never seen one be a rain/snow true mix for hours on end. It usually either goes one way or another. If the rates are what they are now and it's not changing over I'm not sure what it will take. There's no dry air to ingest at this point and there is not great cold to the north to tap. Plus the precip type here and 800+ feet above me is also troubling. Maybe making too much of it, but not liking what I'm seeing so far.
  5. John1122
    I'm at 33.5 with slop falling. All raised surfaces are slush coated but there's a warm layer in there somewhere. I drove up to 2500 feet and it's slush falling there too. So 925 is also above freezing.
  6. John1122
    On the models with 6-9 inches here the changeover was modeled to happen at 3am. On the epic NAM run that dropped 14 inches here it changed over at 11. Looks like the 11pm full change should occur here.
  7. John1122
    Snow/rain mix and 34 now in Caryville about to head home. Wet flakes plopping down in the rain.
  8. John1122
    Mixed lignt snow/sleet/rain in Caryville now. 925 line is south of Campbell and the 850 is well south. So if precip rates pick up I could easily see all snow reaching the surface.
  9. John1122
    I believe it's just the front end sleeting as the column saturates. Like I said. It hadn't rained until this evening.
  10. John1122
    Looked out, in Caryville where I'm at, it's sleeting and 36.
  11. John1122
    I'm at a Christmas Party and am not sure what is going on back home. It hasn't even started raining when I left an hour ago.
  12. John1122
    850 0 degree line is roughly from Gatlinburg to Farragut and up the west side of the Plateau. All areas N/E of there are still sub 0 at 850. Still running well south of the predicted 850 temps at this hour. Not seem obs from Arkansas lately but their only sub 0 850 areas are in the first tier of counties in North Central Arkansas. Sub 0 925 runs from Cumberland Gap to NW Anderson County and westward along the TN/KY border to about Clarksville. 925 is very chilly in Arkansas. Bubble of 925 warmth is very evident in the eastern Valley as it bumps up into SWVA. 2M temps here were predicted to be 36 and are at 37.
  13. John1122
    I don't think I can sticky it myself but if anyone can that's fine with me.
  14. John1122
    I am at 37 now after a high of 39. Temps around my area appear to be generally in the upper 30s with mid to lower 30s above 2000 feet.
  15. John1122
    Honestly stunned by it. I guess they were waiting on the GFS to cave because the Euro/NAM/CMC/FV3/RGEM/WRF/3K weren't enough.
  16. John1122
    We are in a NWS mets vs models battle at this point. Will just have to see whom is right. There's a whole lot to be said for human knowledge of climatology. Nashville is forecasting 1/2 inch for Crossville total. Even the GFS has them at 2-3 inches.
  17. John1122
    Hah I did mean to put it there.
  18. John1122
    I started an obs thread since many started appearing here.
  19. John1122
    See obs in the storm thread, so we need an obs thread. Snow has fallen in various parts of the forum today, especially Western areas. Hopefully the 12z models are at the correct solution and this is a thread and obs archive I'm reading during hot summer days. Currently imby 38 degrees, dp 31.
  20. John1122
    I'm trying to see how far below the 0 degree 925 that frozen makes it to the ground. So hopefully you start seeing precip soon. It's going to creep north very slowly today.
  21. John1122
    The winds are blowing east over the mountains. I suspect that's downslope warming.
  22. John1122
    38/31dp here. 850 around -1, 925 at -1.
  23. John1122
    Ratios are simply how much liquid it takes to make an inch of snow. Snow at 30-32 is 10:1, if it gets above that they start changing. Other factors go into it as well. If it's 18 and snowing you might see 25:1 ratios. This will be a wet snow with 5:1 to 8:1 ratios across the areas it falls the way it looks now.
  24. John1122
    What is the elevation there? 900 feet maybe? The 925 I think is 2300 feet. So the flakes are surviving 1400 feet or so without melting if that's the case.
  25. John1122
    The 925 is close to 0 in your area, and the 850s are below, so you may have it for a bit.
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