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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    Quite a blossoming of the radar. You don't often see virtually the entire half of the state just blossom with returns over one radar cycle. Looks like some stout bands set up over the area. Don't know if it's rain or snow falling but looks really heavy around North Knox, Anderson, Southern Campbell, Morgan and Union County.
  2. John1122
    Heavy snow here as well, it had been heavy drizzle after some earlier snow showers for a good while but the system is finally generating enough lift to get moisture into the snow growth zone. I also have to say I've rarely seen snow or anything coming in from Middlesboro Kentucky. There's some 2800-3000ish peaks inbetween us, hopefully they squeeze out some of that moisture.
  3. John1122
    AO to go with the above post.
  4. John1122
    As we get towards Christmas the teleconnections look favorable. The AO is also forecast to tank towards late month. Tough to beat a strong +PNA, a -AO, -NAO, and the EPO falling rapidly towards negative and the WPO going towards negative helps too. When it's negative or neutral it doesn't effect our weather much. But when it's positive in January we tend to be slightly AN.
  5. John1122
    Unlikely to amount to much but once better returns arrived it's snowing big quarter to half dollar sized flakes.
  6. John1122
    Pure rain here. Above 3000ft on Cross Mountain where the NAM kept dropping 28-32 inches, it appears that about half that actually fell. While no one lives there, there was some tough travel across it this morning, including a wrecked plow.
  7. John1122
    I'll be taking a weather vacation after this one. Hopefully this wasn't the only winter storm of the season but you never know with how the last two have went. This event made me feel like I ran a marathon then tripped and broke my ankle when I could see the finish line. Some of you new folks, join in the day to day forum more. You're all appreciated when you show up. Blunderstorm, I hate that you got the shaft too on this one. It's tough seeing a historic event in every direction but being mainly left out. Had a weird streak like that here in the 2006-8 time frame. My avatar back in that time frame at Accu forums was that. Most importantly you learned something about your microclimate. We have a ton around here and I always say, know your microclimate around here. Odds are if it happened once it's gonna happen again. Maybe this year we can get a good slider that runs 40. It's December and the West side has two major winter events already and the far East side has one major one. That either means this winter will have plenty more potential to come or it's gonna torch in January! I think the former is more likely. Well, back to the Tennessee game. It's not making me too happy right now either but at least they are good enough to play with elite teams.
  8. John1122
    I've rarely been so mad at models but looking at them they were close for a long time. Hate to say it but the GFS whipped the Euro (and everyone else) badly on thermals. The NAM won the precip totals. Snow map, I'll give that to the rgem. It buried the NE areas and had the odd map where southern areas of Campbell got more snow than northern. And once you ratio the totals here were about right. All in all one for the books along 81, one for the the rest of the valley to remember with caution. When CAD is happening during a storm, it's unlikely to work for anyone west of Knoxville.
  9. John1122
    A warm layer just below 700mb. What a wonky system. I'm not even sure where they all were. At one point it was 33 and raining here while it was upper 30s and snowing east of here. It's going to be a favorite for some on the board and one of the all time let downs for others. I'm probably done now with 1.5 inches. Crazy that every model showed a much earlier change and missed by totals by 6-8 inches even as the event was underway. I've never seen such a micro screw job as what happened to Blunderstorm though.
  10. John1122
    The southern half of CC appears to be doing better than the northern half. So hopefully Runman is doing well. There are areas just north of me that have nothing.
  11. John1122
    About 1 inch down, probably the 2nd most disappointing weather event I've seen unfold here in a long time. Will have to see if we can pick up any additional accumulation this morning. Will be fighting the fact that it's day time the rest of the day. Hard to see that pounding rain for hours on end. Change over was 4 hours behind vs what was modeled.
  12. John1122
    MRX made no changes to the WSW and WWA and said the commahead will come through with heavy snow bands over the morning into afternoon hours. Hope some of you guys that were getting snow can avoid much freezing rain and that the front end thump at least looked great for a while. This warm nose means business if it manages to get to you.
  13. John1122
    I had 3 inches of sleet with about 3 inches of snow a few years ago, robbed me of an epic snow event as areas just north of me got 15 inches. But you don't see multi-inch sleet events very often on our side of the Apps.
  14. John1122
    About to hit the dryslot. With luck we can manage to get N winds soon.
  15. John1122
    Being east is winning this one. Had ssw winds here. Killed everything. East is getting e or ene winds and the snow line is holding fairly steady. Surprised the warm nose hasn't managed to make any progress that way but it seems to be stuck at Morristown or so.
  16. John1122
    Yes, just pouring rain here. No sleet and no snow recently either.
  17. John1122
    Up to 37 now as temps are torching at every level. Hopefully this is the last push of warmth from the system. It looks like Crossville may be falling and they had "precipitation" rather than rain last I saw.
  18. John1122
    Well, ignore my last post. I thought the NAM was at 15 hours but it was only at 5.
  19. John1122
    Looked at NAM wrong...ignore.
  20. John1122
    I managed some slush on the cars but that's been it. It's even rain at 2500 feet so the whole county is in the same boat right now.
  21. John1122
    You should be good for 6-8 inches of snow. I'll be surprised if you change back to anything liquid. I'm more surprised you found a way to not be snowing.
  22. John1122
    I've seen a lot of these events and it's tough for them to turn favorable once rain bores in like this. Especially if the energy transfers off the coast. We will be counting on a dying ULL to provide the punch.
  23. John1122
    Hopefully this is remotely correct for my area but I'm extremely skeptical at this point. Temp is now at 36, up 3 degrees. There's not a lot of cold to be found as the high moves east and the sw flow keeps pumping. MRX is bullish for SW Virginia where it bumped totals to 6-12. Lowered my area to 1-4. I'll count 2 as a win right now.
  24. John1122
    The 925 and 850s are so bad at this point I'll be surprised if they can work out anywhere outside extreme NE areas. 925 was right below me at 9:45. Now its way up in Kentucky. The 850 has shot into Ohio. Hopefully the NE areas can hold on, but the warm nose is as strong as any I've seen for the track the low is taking and the relative weakness of it. You'd think it was 992 the way it's pumped up temps.
  25. John1122
    Temps on the up and up here. 35 up from 33. Congrats to those getting the snow in extreme west and NE Tennessee. Hopefully this warmnose doesn't blast you like it has me. Have to hope the commahead track is good or this will become an all time bust here. I'll also have to reevaluate how I use models. As this would become an all tme model fail at the surface.
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