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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    Heavy heavy rain, lots of thunder and some hail. Winter is on the clock to return soon.
  2. John1122
    Very loud rolling thunder here as well.
  3. John1122
    Lots of weird things happen in weather and sometimes we don't have an analog for them. Things have probably happened this way before but the window we've recorded weather in is incredibly small. This is an amazingly warm start to January we are looking at. It will be the only January in the last 75 years (that's as far back as I looked) that is very warm that followed up a November as cold as the one just past if the pattern doesn't break down and we stay warm for the month. One of you guys posted the other day that the atmosphere is behaving so oddly that this year may be an analog unto itself. Also, no one should feel bad about any forecast. So far the climate scientist from NASA who's panel I attended is fairing pretty poorly on her winter forecast as well. But we till have a long way to go, we aren't even halfway home. I've had 5 inches of snow already this winter, many of you even more than that. We are still a few weeks from peak winter and we get a solid 30-45 day window where snow and frigid weather can occur.
  4. John1122
    Which comes first, an OC for Tennessee or the return of cold weather?
  5. John1122
    Last year after the split things got frigid here for a month. If we had gotten the split in December or January with any snowcover below 0 would have been easily on the table. As it was, snow was falling here in late March and even April. 1985 is rare territory. I was at -28 degrees on the 21st. The other coldest day of my life was -20 on February 4th 1996. -10 isn't uncommon here but once you start looking at -20 type temps they aren't terribly common at all. Probably an every 50 years type event.
  6. John1122
    This is the November/December 84 into early 85 major SSW that dislodged the PV and wiped out a +AO/+NAO pattern that was blisteringly warm the last 3 weeks of December. The effects were felt pretty quickly, within 10-14 days, with the peak of the effects from January 15th-25th roughly. It was a two wave event as well, the PV was perturbed with the first wave and split in the second. At the time these were record warm temps into January at 10mb.
  7. John1122
    GFS and the Euro are getting closer. Somewhere between Nashville to Fayetteville in a SW to NE line wins big between the two. GFS was a big hitter from Memphis to Clarksville. The Euro was NW of that area. Big shift for the GFS from 0z to 06z. Still a long way out and a lot of wiggle room to go with it but not terribly long at this point. The GFS gets things cooking over West Tn and and Southern Arkansas during the day Wednesday into Wednesday evening.
  8. John1122
    I haven't looked but don't really look. If it's people in the Southeast, that's baffling, a good portion of them already have exceeded their normal snow for the season. They are playing with house money at this point.
  9. John1122
    November 84 was -3.5 December 84 was +9 after being cold/snowy early in the month, temps warmed significantly to close the month (sound familiar?) January 85 was warm the first couple of days. Then the bottom fell out the rest of the month. 84-85 was a weak La Nina. But the atmosphere in some respects, as Carves has pointed out, is acting like a weak La Nina right now. There was a SSW in mid to late December 1984. (December is early for SSW events to happen) This led to the January of 85 cold waves that lasted for just over a month. I don't know that we will get anything remotely like 1985, but there are similarities this year. The fact that the PV is being disturbed so early is a potentially very good scenario.
  10. John1122
    All the globals have some winter potential in about a week for the forum. The Euro is the most suppressed right now. The Canadian is the furthest North and west with wintery weather. The FV3 has a major ice storm and heavy snows in the South and far Eastern areas of the forum. The GFS is almost as suppressed at the Euro. Prefer to be NW of the modeled precip 90 percent of the time, but last year the deep south cashed in several times while we were too far N/W.
  11. John1122
    Virtually all current disco pertains to January at this point, so it's time to fire up the January pattern thread. The Euro weeklies say the potential is there. The cold Nov/cold January is a pretty consistent match. So game on as we move into the heart of winter in the valley. Which I consider our prime winter frame to be Jan 15th-Feb 15th. Our coldest temps and most snow will usually fall in that window. Let's hope the pattern gets right as we head towards prime time.
  12. John1122
    I'm going to have to go to Camp Creek during one of these events. It's probably the strongest low elevation winds you can experience without being in a tornado/storm/hurricane.
  13. John1122
    Canada is looking like it's going to get frigid soon. -10s to -30s closing on on the borders with the US and repeated shots of it on the FV3. So there won't be much, if any waiting on Canada to reload cold. It doesn't take long with maximum darkness over the source areas.
  14. John1122
    This one has been on again off again, but this is a great New Years look, I'll be in Chattanooga per usual, so 40 and North may as well get ready for flakes.
  15. John1122
    Rainy, foggy and mid 30s today. Blah in every way.
  16. John1122
    Not the biggest event but the 5th time I've had accumulation since Mid November. Above 2500 has a couple of inches.
  17. John1122
    Just had my whole house shake for about 15 seconds about 15 minutes ago, apparently another earthquake just hit the area. If so, it's the 3rd this week, but first one I've felt.
  18. John1122
    Frozen fog this morning.
  19. John1122
    The heavy snow line here was above 2500 feet. Below that 2.5-3 inches were standard. I normally would not have felt bad about getting 2.5 inches here. But it was tough to see the 10+ modeled get down to 20-25 percent of that. At 2500 feet there was 7 inches. At 3500 feet there was 14. So totals almost doubled with every 1000 feet of elevation or so.
  20. John1122
    It has about double the depth here vs actuality except for the very tops of the mountains.
  21. John1122
    Looks like it's beginning to shrink and pull out. Days ago when the Euro was just hammering the area with yard stick totals part of the reason was that this thing hung around for 20 hours pulling in moisture off the Atlantic.
  22. John1122
    Loudon Co reported snow on I-75 in patches at 4:41 am. So that band must have gotten going pretty well for them. Knox had been reporting rain/snow at Tys.
  23. John1122
    I've managed to add 3/4ths of an inch with moderate snow still falling, getting to 32 has helped a lot in the accumulation dept. I'd guess the south end of Campbelll to Claiborne county and maybe North Knox, Anderson, Union to Jeff County added an inch or more if it was all snow for them. I know MRX said the rain/snow line was between Knox and Morristown.
  24. John1122
    The temp went from 35 to 32 here in the snow, so with luck you can drop a degree or three as well.
  25. John1122
    It's snowing pretty hard here, quarter sized flakes roughly. It looks like it'd be really coming down just south of me. Are you under heavy returns at all? It may be because they are close to the radar and wet snow/mix is highly reflective, but Jefferson and Grainger are under some 35dbz bands.
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