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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    That happen in the February storm a couple of years ago. I remember NE Knox to Tri got about 3 additional inches the morning after the main event had moved out.
  2. John1122
    The NAM has been speedy all day too. It just does a better job capturing the true size of gulf precip shields in these situations. The American models were singled out by the WPC for being too progressive in their disco earlier today. They used the Euro/Ukie/GFES to make their last forecast.
  3. John1122
    The lower res globals are moving beyond their usefulness now. The Euro and possibly fv3 still have some use as they are high res long range models I believe. At least through 240. At 9k the Euro is higher res than the 12k NAM and the RGEM.
  4. John1122
    Virtually the same as the last several on the GFS. NETN/SWVA maybe get 1-2 inches ratio adjusted. I get freezing rain as well as most of the Kentucky border areas.
  5. John1122
    Through 30 the GFS is 100+ miles east of the other models.
  6. John1122
    The GFS is likely to continue it's progressive/low qpf output. I don't think it's going to blink.
  7. John1122
    Looking at it, the RGEM is just a weird very far south Miller B. It gets stuck and drifts around north, south, east and west as various times in Alabama and then transfers off the coast after 12 hours of drifting.
  8. John1122
    The RGEM got into the sauce that run. The low drifts Northwest for a few frames on it. Not sure why the Canadian suite over the last few days has tried to turn the system due north at times. This was even more extreme with the NW drift.
  9. John1122
    I'd love to get a storm with model agreement and no temperature issues just once. It seems like it's always something crazy for our forum. It never used to be this hard. Miller A's did what they do. Sliders worked well. Clippers meant 2-3 inches and a day off school. It's crazy how tough it is these days.
  10. John1122
    The 3k NAM is back to the Euro from the other day above 3000 in Campbell County. It spit out 34 inches of snow over Cross Mountain. Even ratio'd it's 28 inches. Ratio'd it's 2-4+ on the western Plateau. 3-7 in the lower elevations of Campbell/Claiborne with yardsticks needed above 2500 feet and climbing into the 7-9 range towards the TRI area. Knox ratio'd to 1.5 in SW Knox and 3 to 4 in far north and northeast Knox. There is an odd cranny just west of Johnson County in NE Tn that it only shows 1 inch. Not sure if it's downsloping or what. Sometimes the 3k almost seems to try to hard with terrain features.
  11. John1122
    The NAM wasn't as epic as 18z but it was nice. I can't imagine it's more than a coincidence but for several days the models climb with totals through the day then start losing steam in the overnight runs.
  12. John1122
    Noting that it was an outlier among it's ensembles with it's fast/flat solution, WPC didn't even use the GFS as part of their multi-model blend after the 12z runs today.
  13. John1122
    Ratio'd the FV3 would be 5-10 inches N. Plateau and NE Tn. 3-5 inches along the entire 40 corridor except the little eastern rim area where I guess it warm noses.
  14. John1122
    In the 2015 event I referenced earlier, the GFS never did catch up, no models did fully. But any NW movement with the precip is part of the trend.
  15. John1122
    If and it's still quite and if at this point, the system actually comes back on the models as the 12z and now 18z suite seem to suggest, what a score for the FV3. It's the only one that hasn't really flinched. Between that and it basically having even surface features almost exactly right from 9 days away say good things are possibly coming from the model.
  16. John1122
    I wonder if pivitol incorporates sleet as freezing rain?
  17. John1122
    Per JKL the 18z and 0z runs will finally have fully sampled data from the wave in California. The 12z runs did not.
  18. John1122
    The biggest issue I have with the point and click is how often they have rain to snow to rain to snow in them, solely based on whether it's day or night. I've watched a whole lot of these events and I don't recall ever seeing one where it switched back and forth in that fashion as much as they forecast. Either the dynamics are there for snow and it does, or they aren't and it rains. At least in the zone forecast it pretty much says it will rain or snow or sleet. Not really that all three will be going back and forth as the point and click seems to think.
  19. John1122
    I'm almost certain the point and click are generated almost directly off the GFS.
  20. John1122
    It doesn't really matter if they put Campbell in or not, but I truly have no idea what they are seeing that makes them include Claiborne and not the rest of the Northern Plateau. Basically the models that hit there hit here, and the ones that don't miss us both by a wide margin.
  21. John1122
    This happens often. This is from a February storm thread a few years ago. It's 48 hours from the event happening. I think Todd was using the NAM or GFS here. As they often do, models started out showing a state wide event. Then trended east more and more until at 48-72 hours out they had dried out all but extreme eastern sections. This was the RGEM Ground reality was 8 inches for my area, 6 inches back to Crossville. 8-12 in the Central Valley. This was also the infamous downslope event that stopped snow in NE Tn at around 5.5 inches, but the next morning a secondary low dropped into the area and gave 1-3 more inches of snow to most of East Tennessee. Any of this sound familiar? The biggest difference is that there were no mixing or rain issues. It was much colder and February is more favorable for snow than early December. But the precip field was much larger. Several inches of snow fell in Kentucky during this event as well.
  22. John1122
    FV3 still a big hitter almost statewide but the northern edge of the precip is further south and totals shrank overall through 78 but it's still snowing in Eastern areas. Skipped 84 so not sure if it was still snowing then or not.
  23. John1122
    Not during the winter! I actually sleep around 3-4 hours a day. I never seem to need more. As for the GFS. Not sure. Maybe storms in the Gulf are effecting the moisture transport. It often under performs on precip shields, well known bias of the model and all the models are trending south with the precip. This is actually similar to my worst snow bust memory back in the 1980s when we were forecast to get a foot of snow one Sunday night from a miller A, woke up the next morning expecting no school, not a flake of snow or drop of rain had fallen. Winter Storm warnings busted all across East Tennessee. Precip didn't make it over the Tennessee line. I don't remember any specifics that caused it, but I imagine it could have been storms robbing moisture.
  24. John1122
    WPC model preferences were a general blend from 00z with less weight to the NAM because it said the NAM was actually too warm at 850 in their opinion. For the 100th time, mentioned that the GFS was progressive.
  25. John1122
    As crazy as it is, it looks like the winds never turn S or SW at either 700 or 850 on there. On the NAM they are screaming out of the South/Southwest and that pumps in the moisture. The GFS went from having the highest dew points to the lowest. They never get out of the 20s for anywhere north of 40 during the whole time the low is passing by. Which would be great if the moisture was being transported north like you'd expect from a Gulf low.
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