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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    The GFS has been long gone all day for most of us. I'm just hoping it's wrong. Like I mentioned earlier, the models are just locked into their solution and none of them are budging. Any could be right I guess, we will just have to see which one caves or if they just march on being wrong.
  2. John1122
    Ice is rocking NE and NW Tennessee at this time. But it's about to switch.
  3. John1122
    The NAM keeps slipping some warming up the western slopes of the Apps. Dumps 4-5 inches of heavy wet snow but also major ice. Up to .6 that way. Western Tennessee and Northern Middle also get the big ice that run.
  4. John1122
    I am going with a 7:1 snow ratio, even though JKL said it may even be 5:1. A met in the SE Forum said 7:1 was good on the Euro. 10:1 maps put down 8-9 inches in my area, 4-5 in the Central Eastern Valley areas, and 10-13 or so in the NE all through 90. Snow was still falling through, I don't know how much, if any accumulation was added after. I'd also mention that my area and quite a bit of the TN/KY border areas see frozen that isn't snow as well as snow.
  5. John1122
    18z Euro was similar but less in SEKY for snow through 90 hours. That was the last map I was able to see. . Ratio'd I'd say 3-5 Plateau, 2-4 Central Eastern Valley and Southern Ky, 4-8 in NETN/SWVA. That said, it's still snowing in most of East Tennessee at 90 on there.
  6. John1122
    I feel like the models are locked into their solutions and are either going to score or be wrong. Not sure if they are going to flinch at this point.
  7. John1122
    It's just according to which model you can trust. Right now the NWS says those areas will be trouble free, but if you go to Gatlinburg Saturday night or Sunday, maybe or maybe not. As bad as that sounds, this thing is on a razor thin margin between a snow or ice storm or a rainer.
  8. John1122
    With 5:1 snow ratios it's probably choose which way you lose your power.
  9. John1122
    The NAM map from tropical is basically all ice in NW Tennessee. It'd be a horrible ice storm there if it verified. No small amount in NE Tennessee either on it. It ratios out much differently than TT map. Ice free snow map.
  10. John1122
    Ugly is about the only way to describe this snow depth map.
  11. John1122
    GFS is almost a mirror of it's 12z run. Gets everything out in a hurry and cut back it's totals in areas that got snow by 15-25 percent.
  12. John1122
    JKL came out and said 4-8 in their Southeast counties look likely, 2-4 in their SW areas, and 2 in their northern areas. Said if the NAM was right, much more on tap. They mentioned that ratios might be as low as 5:1 with the snow. So shaving 50 percent off some of the snow maps might be prudent.
  13. John1122
    WPC mentions the Euro closing the system over Texas, but the GFS closes it over Tennessee and Kentucky. They keep mentioning that the GFS is very progressive and that it's a bias of it.
  14. John1122
    I honestly never felt like bothering with it. I usually read the Jackson Ky AFD disco, they will almost always mentioned their areas that border me and I get very close to the same weather as they do. They also smoke MRX when it comes to properly issuing advisory/warning products.
  15. John1122
    This happened during one of our events in 2014 or 2015. They were predicted to get epic totals in the upstate of South Carolina into Charlotte. Instead it ended up being a sleet fest and East Tn did much better than initially predicted.
  16. John1122
    Honestly, by looking at their forecast they basically saw the 12z GFS and based the forecast mainly on it and the 12z NAM. I'll also add that this is a frequent problem for this part of their forecast area. Very often get wwa/warning criteria winter weather events that either end up with no products issued or a WWA. It happened this week already. The northern half of Campbell got 1.5-3 inches of snow. Bordering counties of SEKY were issued WWA. SWVA/Smokies were issued WWA. We were generally ignored.
  17. John1122
    They rarely mention us unless it's supposed to snow here and no where else. They also seem to divide the area often by saying the north or the south part of their area. But they seem to refer to Tri as their north. I'm further north than Tri but they don't seem to mean this area when they say north.
  18. John1122
    I always feel like MRX ignores its Northern Plateau counties unless it absolutely has to mention them. That's several discos in a row where we aren't mentioned at all regarding the weekend even though around 115,000 people live here.
  19. John1122
    From the map posted, this is the snowline very very often for my area. Also illustrates why WAA that runs up the valley doesn't work as well here even though the very center of Campbell has a narrow valley. It's surrounded by ridges/peaks and doesn't really connect with the great valley of East Tn.
  20. John1122
    The MRX WSW is pretty much what I predicted they'd do yesterday. So far very much like December 18th 2009. I had 6 inches of snow on the ground when they got around to issuing a winter storm warning for my area.
  21. John1122
    I think Fulmer is going to find a flaw in everyone and eventually name himself OC.
  22. John1122
    I was being sarcastic myself and took yours into account! It just doesn't translate as well via post.
  23. John1122
    I don't really get one aspect of the forecast being discussed by the WPC for our region. Says all snow very likely in the mountains but freezing rain in the lower elevations. I'm confused by how that happens since freezing rain is a product of warmer air at higher elevations. Most commonly around 3000-5000 feet. I guess there's a very thin later of above freezing air in the atmosphere below 3000 but above the surface?
  24. John1122
    The maps are all over twitter, often posted by the people who run the sites themselves. So I vote it's a-ok... I have noticed the Vista maps are way less frozen than others I see for the Euro.
  25. John1122
    Sleet map from the Euro. Keep in mind that an inch of sleet steals about 3.3 inches of snow.
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