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John1122

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  1. John1122
    850s have dropped further south at the top of the hour update. The 0 degree line is now S of Nashville I believe and it's touching the Hamilton County line. -1 over the Northern Plateau and Valley. Also notable if Arkansas is seeing snow. the 850 line is barely into northern Arkansas.
  2. John1122
    Here it seems to be 4 inches in a 12 hour period or 6 in a 24 hour period.
  3. John1122
    For anyone expecting MRX to change their products, I'll be shocked if they do. Maybe they'll add a row to the WWA. In the past the snow is on the ground before they consider changing things. This week we had 1.5 to 3 inches here with no advisory. Even though most models were actually showing those amounts. I had 7.5 once and 5 were on the ground before a snow advisory product was issued. 9 inches under a WWA that never upgraded and they knew it was happening. In 2009-10 I had over 40 inches of snow with multiple over 5 inches and was under a winter storm warning 1 time the entire season when I got 13 inches.
  4. John1122
    Currently the 850 is 80-100 miles south of the NAM/3K/FV3/GFS/CMC/RGEM
  5. John1122
    This is from the WPC regarding the Southern Apps and the GFS vs the other models.
  6. John1122
    Flash, you're probably going to pick up an inch or two.
  7. John1122
    MRX rolls with a mostly GFS based forecast as does JKL. Not a big surprise I guess. Last situation like this when I got a WWA we ended up with 8-10 inches of snow across the area. No clear idea why they do it that way, WPC has been very much saying the GFS wasn't being used in their products because it's a major outlier. The GFS is by far the driest model. The others all have 1.25-2.00 inches over all of the area. GFS has something like .75 in the northern parts of the forum. Yet for reasons beyond me they say the 00z NAM is the outlier QPF wise.
  8. John1122
    3k NAM was nice but not as crazy as the 12k. Above 3000 feet in my area got ratio'd at 28 inches again.
  9. John1122
  10. John1122
    Ratio'd map. Either the most of the models are all going to bust like nobodies business or the WFO that roll with the GFS as their primary tool are. JKL is giving 1-2 inches for their TN border counties.
  11. John1122
    I fully expect the WFO to pretty much ride the GFS. JKL is doing it already.
  12. John1122
    I don't know if I've ever seen the NAM laying down 14-20 inches in the area 15-35 hours before the event.
  13. John1122
    Didn't quite get into Central Tennessee like I thought it was going to, but Arkansas, West Tennessee, North Central Tennessee, Southern Kentucky and East Tennessee north of about Loudon County get a huge winter storm.
  14. John1122
    This thing is going to lay down 12+ over a large area pre-ratio.
  15. John1122
    Snowing heavily at 32 over most of the eastern half to 2/3rd of the forum area.
  16. John1122
    This is going to be a monster run, the LP rounded the corner over SE Georgia instead of off shore.
  17. John1122
    This may be a bigger run, snow started 3-5 hours earlier over areas near the Ky and VA border than had been modeled on prior runs.
  18. John1122
    Big snows in North and north central Arkansas, big ice storm underway in west Tennessee at 21 hours. Snow overhead in my area. 850s are sub 32 from Scott County east to Tri, surface temps around 33-34.
  19. John1122
    06 NAM is rolling, hour 15 precip shield is maybe 30 miles south. High is 1mb stronger, 1037 over Ohio and Illinois.
  20. John1122
    As of the midnight disco, WPC is pretty much going with the Euro and EPS for it's forecast package. Say the others have too many issues with timing and temps.
  21. John1122
    Even ratio'd the FV3 was pretty good for a lot of us. The ice threat continues to be modeled in NW Tennessee and Northern Middle Tennessee.
  22. John1122
    If I were guessing, around 4-5 am. Usually they take extra long in these situations, waiting probably in the 06z NAM and some other 06 models to begin working things out.
  23. John1122
    10:1 FV3 is 10-12 inches from Central Arkansas to the Plateau in a SW to NE orientation. From the Eastern Plateau to Tri its 12 to 16 inches. South of 40, east of Davidson it's 2-5 inches with 6 inch pockets all the way through with totals beginning to climb towards 9 inches near the Smokies and over a foot in the mountains. Take 30-40 percent off these for ratio purposes.
  24. John1122
    Snow maps aren't out for it, but I figure they will be in the ball park of what they've been so far today.
  25. John1122
    Through 30 the FV3 is virtually identical to 18z.
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