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John1122

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  1. John1122
    The pattern is finally reeled in imo. 6-10 and 8-14 look good. Wed-Saturday may be the last N/AN temps we have for a long while.
  2. John1122
    This map is probably what the FV3 snowfall map would look like at 384. We may get unlucky and not score anything in the cold pattern, heck, we only need to look at Christmas til late January last year to see that struggle. Even that was a stormy pattern, the ridge in the Pacific was just too big last year and it suppressed everything. The cold and snow means showing up at 1.5 inches in Central Alabama shows that there are some low road solutions hitting in there still. 2009-10 and 2010-11 were two of my favorite winters because it stayed cold enough for snow and cold enough for the snow to stick around, but it wasn't 5-15 below zero and there wasn't as much suppression. Unfortunately that meant south of 40 areas weren't nearly as snowy as areas north of 40. We need to find the happy medium between the Gulf coast getting snow and people along 40 and south changing to rain or staying 33 and rain. I believe Jan 85 was that, it got extremely cold obviously, but the pattern was also good for valley wide snow events from Memphis north and west.
  3. John1122
    This, for a 5 day ens average at 500 in January is about as nice as it gets, and I say about, because it actually gets better 12-16. This also aligns with a day 7-13 AN precip forecast for the region.
  4. John1122
    All the models are a crap shoot beyond day 6, especially for details more specific than the 500mb pattern and even then small feature changes have big consequences in OP runs. They are pretty decent at sniffing out a storm, it's the track that gives major troubles and we are always on such an edge that 40 mile shifts make huge differences for rain vs snow and at any kind of range they will have 300-500 mile wide windows, think of the day 7 hurricane cones. Using the ensembles is a decent way to smooth out biases of individual models per some NWS mets I've read. When you have such an intense cold press coming down, models tend to underestimate it's speed and it's ability to push SE as well. Very often these situations are ones that lead to freezing rain/sleet events as the cold is so dense it undercuts a rainy system that's riding up the edge of the front. That happens on the FV3 between 252-264. There's nearly a 30 degree gradient from NWTN to NETN and NETN isn't very warm. The FV3 has extremely high resolution (as high as 1k-3k and it's supposed to be able to model individual clouds from what I've read) but is still behind the Euro in performance days 7-10. For the December 9th storm it had the features almost exactly in place at D 11-13, which was probably it's best performance of winter. That said, it appears to have a cold bias but part of it's extreme cold solutions is that it's putting down heavy snow cover. If you have arctic air, heavy snow cover and it's this time of year, below 0 is not at all uncommon. The GEFS snow mean has steadily been in the 3-6 inch range forum wide with the 2 inch mean line well into Miss/Ala/Ga. All indicators say arctic cold is about 6-8 days away for our forum area. The pattern looks stormy. It looks like we'd just have to have bad luck (and we have plenty) not to cash in at some point in the January 20th-30th timeframe. With luck we can cash in a few times.
  5. John1122
    The FV3 may have actually gotten colder as hard as that is to believe. If it's off by 15 degrees it'd still be below 0 in our region.
  6. John1122
    Really nice ENS mean again. Shows the models are seeing storms in the pattern with plenty of cold around to take advantage.
  7. John1122
    To add to the post above, this would be 12/1pm the day before those lows. Widespread subzero temps in the early afternoon. These temp maps may not and are probably not quite going to happen to this extreme but show the potential of the pattern depicted, to deliver cold into the lower 48.
  8. John1122
    The FV3 got even colder towards the end of it's run. Over that deep snow pack and those shots of cold from clippers, we approach 1985 cold. Once again, this would be 1 am. Temps would probably be 3-5 degrees colder by sunrise. A few years ago models started advertising this crazy cold in February in the long range and I couldn't believe it. But then it actually happened. This type of cold also fits into the pattern when SSWE happen in late December. Extremely dry atmosphere by this time. The 700mb DP is off the charts, way below -40.
  9. John1122
    With the temps/ratios and clippers that followed on the FV3 most of the region would see 10-30+ inches of snow over that 16 day run. I'm not sure if any place has a snow map for it for the entire 384 or not. These temps aren't unrealistic with the time of year/pattern at 500mb and snow cover. This is also at 1am/12am in our region. Temps would probably be 3-4 degrees colder by sunrise.
  10. John1122
    It is but it's usually pretty good at 500mb if nothing else. I see big totals out of it on Tropical all the time but this is the first time I've seen a big map on Pivotal with the ratio added onto it.
  11. John1122
    Yep, it's crazy, still snowing heavily from Nashville east when this ends as well. After this system there's multiple clippers. One of the coldest/snowiest runs of any model I've seen in a long time.
  12. John1122
    The ratio'd snow map for the 18z FV3 is going to be ridiculous through 240, especially for Kentucky.
  13. John1122
    As TNWN said, look at the 18z FV3-GFS. It's colder than 12z. It has highs below 10 nearly state wide and lows in the double digits below 0.
  14. John1122
    It's still cold and stormy, the difference in the two runs was the 18z was more suppressed with the storm at 252-264. 12z was more wound up, less suppressed and went almost due north instead of OTS once it passed beneath us. It laid down heavier snow cover and brought down the extreme sub 0 cold at 12z. Still deep troughs rolling through the east on both runs with huge blocking over Alaska.
  15. John1122
    The best thing about seeing that on a ratio map is that it means it's darn cold when the precip is falling. Much better than worrying about 850s and 925s and surface temps.
  16. John1122
    If you notice, models often do this, it's basically their representation of mist/high humidity that isn't even falling to the surface. Not sure why it does it but I began to notice it a while back. I saw it explained better by someone else.
  17. John1122
    Looks like the band of moisture will be lifting out here soon. Dusting on decks and car tops so far.
  18. John1122
    Finally got snow reaching the ground. Thunder in winter works out again. Fairly steady, hopefully we can squeeze out an inch by morning but the temps are a little warmer than forecast so not sure what will stick. Ground is fairly cold after lower 20s and 10s the last two mornings.
  19. John1122
    Nothing has reached the ground here that I've seen. 34 and virga.
  20. John1122
    Can't find a map but the 1-28-98 event saw 21 inches fall at Wise with a max depth of 16 inches. Missing data at Mountain City with 9 inches on the ground 2 days after the event. Erwin has 9 inches falling with 3.05 inches of QPF. No idea if that snow amount is accurate. It also shows 9 inches on the ground the day that 9 inches fell, 6 inches on the ground the next day. Missing data in Abingdon with 10 inches of snow falling recorded. Tri recorded 2.3 inches of precip but doesn't have snowfall listed/missing data. Elizabethton recorded 18 inches. 5 inches at Gatlinburg. 26 inches at Mt LeConte. Lots of missing data for NE Tn sites is common for the 90s. Elizabethton looks like it has the least missing data with 18 inches of snow recorded on around 1.9 inches of qpf.
  21. John1122
    Regionally in February 1998 Jackson Kentucky had a 12 inch snow depth with 18.6 inches falling on around 2 inches of liquid. Somerset Kentucky had a 14 inch snow depth, no report on what fell with around 2.1 inches of liquid. I had a 17 inch snow depth with 2.5 inches of liquid. West of me there were 20 inch depths in Scott Co and Fentress Co. Crossville had a 10 inch depth with 13 inches falling on around 2.5 inches of liquid but there was some rain in Crossville. Allardt had a 17 inch snow depth with 2.7 inches of liquid. Jamestown had a 20 inch snow depth on 2.4 inches of liquid. Cookeville is listed with 3 inches of liquid but no snow depth. Though that is likely missing data as we have eye witness reports of 12+ inches there. Elevations above 3000 feet in my area had 30+ inches. More snow volume fell in this storm than any other in my lifetime. But it was much wetter than the blizzard so the depth wasn't as great. Widespread power outages. So odd that there were two monsters like that in East Tennessee in a short period. My cousin was about to graduate from ETSU during the first event there, I was pretty jealous of the snowfall he experienced, not knowing I'd get the same soon after.
  22. John1122
    It's the one that hit here but their snow map was off into Tennessee. I'm pretty sure it was a very plateau/eastern rim and points north event. Dynamic cooling with heavy heavy snow. 16-24 inches across Campbell/Scott/Fentress areas and 8-14 across the highland rim. Daniel Boone will know more about if Claiborne got in on it.
  23. John1122
    I had 2 inches of snow from that system and almost 2 inches of rain. Temps were marginal. 38/31. As usual, Wise Va was the big winner in the region with 4.5 inches. January 94 had about 3 weeks of cold/snowy/icy weather depending on where you were located. There was a major winter storm on January 17th. If I remember correctly from Tri to Knox to Crossville to Nashville had some pretty big ice with 2-3 inches of snow on top of it. It stayed snow here and across Southern Kentucky with 6-10 inches falling. I can remember watching channel 6 news and Knoxville was a skating rink and my area had massive snowflakes falling. It had been frigid in the days leading up to it and the ground was frozen brick solid. Potent cold front passage with it, temps fell 20 degrees in an hour or two. temps were in the 10s below 0 across a lot of the area after the front passed over the snow/ice cover. Temps stayed cold for the next week after and the snow stayed on the ground for around 8-10 days. After the January cold, February was pretty warm. Which as we know is par for the course here, we often manage 4-5 weeks of cold and 4-5 weeks of warm in certain winters.
  24. John1122
    It would be truly great to reel that look in. -EPO, +PNA, -AO and at least not a hostile NAO that looks like it could be going towards something good. Should be a decent look for clippers and northern stream stuff too.
  25. John1122
    A prime pattern as we enter the heart of winter is about all you can hope for in a given year. Looks like we are going to have that for a portion or maybe even all of the January 15th-February 15th window. Today was pretty chilly, 36 for the high, gonna be in the 10s tonight. Hopefully we can step down from here. Though normally in El Nino years we don't go full ice box with well below 0 temps, when the pattern is right, especially in the pacific, we can pile up snow while only being a little below normal. 2009-10 I had around 40 inches of snow and I don't recall getting below 0. Yet snow was on the ground for 40 days or something because it never got above 40 consistently during that time.
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