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John1122

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  1. John1122
    The next 10-14 days look volatile, at least on the Euro. Cold/warm/cold/warm roller coaster weather. The Euro loads Alaska with cold and occasionally ridging out west bumps a piece towards us. As for snow, all about timing but we will likely have a least one cutter in the next 10 days.
  2. John1122
    The EPS basically kept us BN again at 12z in the extended range due to a West coast ridge that holds the SE ridge at bay. By late run Alaska and the SE are the only BN areas around North America.
  3. John1122
    Ended up with .72 of rain from this system. The soaking continues. We are likely to experience another epic drought before long. Something will have to balance the three year barrage of rainfall here.
  4. John1122
    EPS was night and day different 12z to 00z. It went from a deep Alaska vortex at D 14 to a PNA ridge, -NAO look and a deep Eastern trough.
  5. John1122
    The EPS is a worst case scenario. The polar vortex heads to Alaska in about 2 weeks. That tends toward being a stubborn pattern to dislodge. Have to hope it doesn't happen at all.
  6. John1122
    Some years we get stuck in a pattern and models try to get out of them, but they just stay in place as we get to reality. Granted, 80 percent of the time the pattern seems to lock in never ending warmth. But a few years it locks and repeats cold like 95-96, 09-10, 10-11, 14-15, 15-16 etc. Usually once those patterns finally do break we get a long term swing in the opposite direction. Unfortunately for us, the last several locked in long term repeating warmth patterns lasted until basically the start of Met spring and we just had cold. wet, miserable spring seasons. In the years where cold repeated, usually by mid February it lifted out and we torched for weeks on end. It seems like one of those years summer basically started in late April and never let up.
  7. John1122
    If you like bone chilling cold, this is the map for you. EPO blocking in Alaska and NAO blocking creates a -AO as well and the takes the cold from Siberia and dumps it through Alaska and into the Lower 48, aimed perfectly at our region.
  8. John1122
    The complete fantasy but true definition of a board wide megastorm that Warbus mentioned in the pattern thread. Look at it to see what a Tennessee Valley masterpiece looks like. This is about as good as it can get from one end of the Tennessee Valley region to the other. Very hard to pull this off because it is so far geographically from Bristol/SWVA to Eastern Arkansas/Northern Miss.
  9. John1122
    This comes about with a ridge on the West coast and the elusive -NAO working in combination. As long as we can keep the Pacific on board we have shots of getting cold and a suppressed storm track.
  10. John1122
    From MRX. This was pretty close to the model output, which frankly surprised me. Not sure if they're getting better or just got lucky.
  11. John1122
    There's been flurries all day today. Thick clouds in place with the snow sticking on trees still in places where it didn't blow off. Above 2500 feet there was a solid 6 inches of snow. 3 inches or so below that. Then below 1500 it went down to about 1 inch. Dramatic differences over short elevation differences. Looking towards the Southwest. That's Cross Mountain at 3525 feet in the back. Hard to see so I laid a stick in it. From 2500ft, about 6 inches on the ground.
  12. John1122
    It was just the track of the low, you were too far East. The cold was very much an east/west thing. That's why it was snowing down in Alabama and raining in northern Virginia. The high-res models had a pretty big area up into SWVA with little accumulation. I didn't think it reached all the way up to you though. They honestly handled this event really well. The RAP gave me around 3 inches last night and that's about where I'm going to end up at. The bullseye outside the high eastern mountains was the eastern rim and western Plateau and it looks like it was good there too. Knoxville overperformed on a couple of models but I believe the RAP had them with .9. It even had the blank spot across Anderson county and it appears to have verified. They likely got downsloped.
  13. John1122
    I guess the radar is on high sensitivity and may he picking up ice crystals in the clouds.
  14. John1122
    Anyone out around NW Davidson? Wondering what that blob on the radar is doing.
  15. John1122
    It's classic upslope here. Strong winds. Not showing up on radar. Thick foggy looking sky filled small flakes. I've gotten another 1/2, inch in the last 45 minutes. 3 inches total.
  16. John1122
    Just added it up, over 92 inches of rain so far in 2020.
  17. John1122
    4.83 inches of rain for November makes it my second driest month of the year.
  18. John1122
    It's rocking and rolling here now. Strong winds and heavy snow. Winds are NNW at 18 with gusts hitting 30. The snow is coming in sideways.
  19. John1122
    Schools closed here already. Probably have a few hours to go with the snow. The low is just creeping along which is helping.
  20. John1122
    I hope it's not another apocalyptic event down there.
  21. John1122
    The radar can see the lower atmosphere better the closer precipitation is to it. Snow, especially when it gets the NW flow component, comes from lower in the atmosphere. The Plateau is about as far away from each radar site in the area as possible. Especially Jamestown, and the radar beams can basically shoot over the snow at times on the edge of its range.
  22. John1122
    The Plateau eats snow on the radar. It's even worse over Jamestown to Western Campbell.
  23. John1122
    They are pretty thick here. Virtually no hunting pressure and plenty of TWRA food plots. They built one big one very close to my property.
  24. John1122
    A local out enjoying the snow.
  25. John1122
    I believe this is all still synoptic snow rather than NW flow snow. My precip is moving basically west to east and it looks like there's even a SW component to it at times. Looks like the NW flow snow is out west still with the streamers pointed towards Nashville.
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