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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    34 with a brief snow shower before getting dry slotted.
  2. John1122
    Short range models and hi-res models really nailed that changeover from Bowling Green down into Middle Tennessee.
  3. John1122
    You can see the colder temps moving in from west to east on here.
  4. John1122
    It's 41 in Cookeville, 43 in Nashville and 39 in Clarksville. You're getting close to being on the West side of the low. The front appears to be from Clarksville to Jackson.
  5. John1122
    That area has been consistently high across modeling. I think you should be looking at 2 or 3 inches at least.
  6. John1122
    The southeast areas are upslope, the areas west of there appear to be heavy synoptic snow that is part of the same band than gets Middle Tennessee and there's a gap between the two where the synoptic band misses and the upslope doesn't happen.
  7. John1122
    Managed to find it on COD. Fairly wide spread 2+ inch area.
  8. John1122
    The 39hr 03z RAP was pretty decent from the Plateau west especially. I don't have a way to see it up close at the county view level but it looked like a lot of Middle Tennessee was in the 1-2 inch area.
  9. John1122
    LeConte forecast. Monday Rain and snow, becoming all snow after 8am. Temperature falling to around 23 by 5pm. Breezy, with a west wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Monday Night Snow. Low around 13. Wind chill values between -2 and 8. Blustery, with a northwest wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible. Tuesday A 40 percent chance of snow, mainly before 10am. Mostly cloudy and cold, with a high near 19. Wind chill values between -4 and 3. Breezy, with a west wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. 2900 ft near Gatlinburg, hope this turns out right for our cabin folk. Monday Rain before 10am, then rain and snow between 10am and 4pm, then snow likely after 4pm. Temperature falling to around 31 by 5pm. West wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible. Monday Night Snow. Low around 20. West wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Tuesday A 40 percent chance of snow, mainly before 10am. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 26. West wind 10 to 15 mph.
  10. John1122
    I am surprised they issued the WWA, though they point out it's mainly above 2000 feet. I'm not 100 percent sure the point forecast isn't generated by the NAM forecast. It shows the change over happening here at 8 am, and my point forecast says "Rain before 8am, then snow between 8 and 9am, then rain until 2PM, then snow after 2PM."
  11. John1122
    MRX significantly reduced the chance of snow here. It went from 70 percent down to 50 percent Monday night. Mentions dry air above 700mb being a problem for most areas that aren't an Eastern Mountain area. For their mountain areas they say 1-2 inches from 2000-3500 and much more above 3500.
  12. John1122
    All the models love the Eastern Rim/Western Edge of the Plateau. I expect OHX to issue a snow advisory for their Plateau counties. I believe we have a poster who lives in NW Cumberland. They may be the winners here outside the Smokies/Eastern upslope areas.
  13. John1122
    MRX has me with 70 percent snow Monday night and a low of 24. So hopefully it can get sub freezing fast. Got a little colder than forecast last night, down to 31 vs 34 that was predicted. Not a huge thing but every hour the ground gets freezing air over it it helps a little.
  14. John1122
    Everything is pretty consistent across modeling with this one now. I'd say the MRX map looks pretty good. Less than an inch below 3000 and 6+ at LeConte. For my area I'm going to go with 1/2-3/4ths inch on decks and car tops and a dusting on grassy areas as far as the ground goes depending on time of day.
  15. John1122
    The 12z Euro Control dropped the hammer with that wave.
  16. John1122
    00z hi-res, the 3K NAM and RGEM looked better for more of us than the 12K NAM. The 3k is down right aggressive in some areas even outside of elevation. I assume it's trying to guess as mesoscale bands that drop heavier stuff.
  17. John1122
    Elevation makes massive differences across the area. 2800 should see accumulation for sure. Even 2 or 3 hundred feet is night and day at times though. 3000 is a magic number there it seems because MRX uses it frequently. I know that above 3000 in my area sees a significant amount more than 2500. There are also places that are much better for upslope than others and those even vary based on the angle of the wind. Hopefully your cabin is located in a favorable spot.
  18. John1122
    UKMet temperatures during that band Holston posted. It's easy to spot the Plateau/Mountains on it. Being 32 or below would aid immensely for any of us hoping for accumulating snow in this kind of warm ground set up.
  19. John1122
    I got under one of those one night and got 6 inches of snow in 3 hours with a temp in the lower 20s.
  20. John1122
    Middle Tennessee has looked better than most areas of the state that aren't mountainous throughout. You don't have to deal with any downsloping really like the eastern valley areas.
  21. John1122
    What an odd run of the Euro. 138 there's a southern system running along the Gulf coast. The primary goes from the Texas coast to the Florida coast then seems to jump from Panama City to Arkansas where it sits for 18 hours pounding Oklahoma.
  22. John1122
    Marginal differences towards the 72 timeframe vs 84 at 12z. Low is in western New York, 992 vs 990 at 12z. Overall snow showers across the eastern 2/3rds of the state. The low moves slower this run and the change to frozen happens later across our area. The low does a loop in New York this run instead of moving into SW Ontario like it did at 12z. This keeps the upslope more towards SW Virginia a little longer than 12z did. Looks like it's going to be Plateau and mountains getting 1+ inch accumulations with less in most lower elevations. Overall it backed off a little in both areas vs 12z.
  23. John1122
    Through 60 it's weaker, more west and warmer vs 12z.
  24. John1122
    Unfortunately by h54 it runs due north instead of more northeast like it did at 12z.
  25. John1122
    The Euro is about 90 miles south through 48 hours. Some frozen starting to pop in SW Missouri.
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