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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    Christmas morning at 7. Still bands of snow in the valley region at this point.
  2. John1122
    You're likely correct. In this case I'm mainly referring to the precip shield. Modeling notoriously under estimates the N and W side of precip fields.
  3. John1122
    Everything is moving towards the Canadian/RGem at this point. The NW trend is a thing in every type of system apparently.
  4. John1122
    I seriously doubt that they change anything. If they do it will be the 4am update.
  5. John1122
    Rain started here about 45 minute ago. Temp is actually up a degree to 48.
  6. John1122
    RGEM has been rock steady since hr 84 when it first "saw" the system. A few years ago it kept dropping 5 to 6 inches imby when other modeling had an inch or so. They finally caved to it 6 hours before the event started and even then never got above 3 inches. I ended up with 6-7 inches.
  7. John1122
    The warning there is often in place for elevation purposes so I can't see them changing. They actually think the far southeast areas will get 6 to 8 on mountain tops.
  8. John1122
    The Euro hopefully has a few more westward creeps in it. Was it faster cold or a bigger precip shield?
  9. John1122
    MRX has me at an 80 percent chance at more than an inch of snow, puts out a forecast map showing me with 1/2 inch. It does crack me up that the night shift always ups totals and day shift always lowers them.
  10. John1122
    Currently 47 degrees and cloudy after a high of 49, several degrees cooler than forecast but possible temps rise as the front approaches.
  11. John1122
    The RGEM is capturing the likely secondary snow better than the GFS/NAM/Euro. The HRRR is capturing it too. The RGEM has been consistent for two days that snow will linger. These major league Arctic airmasses are able to squeeze everything out, the snow growth zone -15c temps get low in the atmosphere and create the snow that falls that doesn't even show up on the radar because it's falling from so low in the atmosphere.
  12. John1122
    After looking at the next day's post on high on LeConte, they ended up with 11 inches. So slightly less than 50 percent of what the 3k was showing. It really keys on higher terrain and just dumps snow on those spots for some reason.
  13. John1122
    JKL disco about the snow showers that follow the frontal precip Thursday night and Christmas day energy.
  14. John1122
    Nashville being in CST almost always is a little later than MRX with disco/storm products.
  15. John1122
    As a rule you can cut the 3k extreme totals by about 60-75 percent. I believe in the last event it showed LeConte with maybe 24 inches and I think they got 6 or 8.
  16. John1122
    Rgem maintains its stance of much more widespread snow vs the far east NAM camp. HRRR has random convective bands that drop 2-4 inch strips if you happen to get one.
  17. John1122
    GFS looks about as bad as the RGEM does good for all except far NE areas. The GFS was slower with the cold and way more progressive with the moisture getting out of dodge than even the NAM.
  18. John1122
    Morristown gets under a particularly aggressive band and goes from 4.9 inches through the first map I posted to 7.2 inches over the course of Christmas day.
  19. John1122
    Frigid by early Christmas morning, RGEM has snow pockets and temps in the low to mid 10s.
  20. John1122
    Through 48 the first wave of snow is in NE Tn and SWVA and the bands of snow showers behind it are starting to get rolling.
  21. John1122
    Pummeling all of East Tennessee by 42. May be it's biggest run yet if the backside stuff is as robust as the last few runs.
  22. John1122
    RGEM is the same as it was at 00z through 06z. Pounding snow across northern Middle. The rain/snow line has just reached mby. It's basically a mirror of the NAM with features, frontal placement, LP placement etc but has a much bigger precip shield on the backside than the NAM.
  23. John1122
    Reading JKL's discussion from yesterday evening, they reason that models are showing way too much accumulation due to warm ground/day time snow falling. That really seems a stretch at this point in the lowest sun angle of winter on what should be a very thickly cloudy day. Also a stretch to say the ground is warm, December has been BN in the area temp wise and lows have been in the 20s multiple days this week and are in the 20s right now, I don't see one warmish day causing the ground temps to shoot up. Snow falling at rates being shown by some models will almost immediately stick and begin to pile up.
  24. John1122
    MRX issues a winter storm watch for the Smokies, NE Tn and SWVA. About what I expected.
  25. John1122
    The 06z 48hr HRRR is similar to the 3k with the banding. It has areas that get 3-4+ inches under what looks almost like convective snow showers while areas on either side of the convective showers get half that or less.
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