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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    Frigid by early Christmas morning, RGEM has snow pockets and temps in the low to mid 10s.
  2. John1122
    Through 48 the first wave of snow is in NE Tn and SWVA and the bands of snow showers behind it are starting to get rolling.
  3. John1122
    Pummeling all of East Tennessee by 42. May be it's biggest run yet if the backside stuff is as robust as the last few runs.
  4. John1122
    RGEM is the same as it was at 00z through 06z. Pounding snow across northern Middle. The rain/snow line has just reached mby. It's basically a mirror of the NAM with features, frontal placement, LP placement etc but has a much bigger precip shield on the backside than the NAM.
  5. John1122
    Reading JKL's discussion from yesterday evening, they reason that models are showing way too much accumulation due to warm ground/day time snow falling. That really seems a stretch at this point in the lowest sun angle of winter on what should be a very thickly cloudy day. Also a stretch to say the ground is warm, December has been BN in the area temp wise and lows have been in the 20s multiple days this week and are in the 20s right now, I don't see one warmish day causing the ground temps to shoot up. Snow falling at rates being shown by some models will almost immediately stick and begin to pile up.
  6. John1122
    MRX issues a winter storm watch for the Smokies, NE Tn and SWVA. About what I expected.
  7. John1122
    The 06z 48hr HRRR is similar to the 3k with the banding. It has areas that get 3-4+ inches under what looks almost like convective snow showers while areas on either side of the convective showers get half that or less.
  8. John1122
    3k NAM is faster with the front than the 12k, very aggressive with backside banding that drops strips of heavy snow and also features some freezing rain accumulations along the Plateau but moves the main shield of precip out much faster than the 12k.
  9. John1122
    The NAM is almost the same on it's features for the past 8 runs, but the difference is it doesn't bring the cold air in nearly as fast the last couple of runs. Yesterday's 06z run the changeover line was about 100 miles East of where it is on todays at 1pm Thursday. So where I was getting heavy snow by then with a LP just across the mountain from Greene County, I'm now getting heavy rain with a low in the same spot. That greatly affects snow totals, basically cutting them in half. 1pm Friday on the 06z from 24 hours ago vs 1pm Friday on the 06z that just ran.
  10. John1122
    Basic synopsis: Euro/UKIE furthest east. But the Euro is better for all of the Eastern valley as a whole than the GFS. GFS/NAM/HRRR not as much moisture return. Better for eastern middle Tennessee HRRR and Gfs/NAM far NE areas but not as good as the Euro for Knoxville and south down the 75 corridor. GGem/RGem would be our new best friend if they verify. Big winter storm for the eastern 2/3rds of the forum area.
  11. John1122
    Euro was better for say Knoxville than the GFS. Slower with the cold by a bit and doesn't have the back side energy like the other models. Could be because it's further East with the frontal lp.
  12. John1122
    Euro popped the low a bit earlier. Gonna be big for NE areas most likely. It's on the east side of guidance right now though which is not a common place for it to be.
  13. John1122
    The Canadian just slams the eastern half of the state as Carvers noted. Absolute best case scenario stuff here.
  14. John1122
    Slightly worse than 18z on the GFS. Day before yesterday all the American models had a bad trend and it bounced back, possibly will again or maybe it will get worse. I'd guess we will see changes all the way up until 12z or 18z tomorrow. Maybe even later.
  15. John1122
    Still snowing at hour 60 in parts of the area on the RGEM.
  16. John1122
    RGEM is even further West it looks like. It runs the low entirely up this side of the Apps. Better for Mid state for sure.
  17. John1122
    HRRR really blasts the southern Plateau and eastern middle. But seems to hang the cold up on the Plateau. Granted it's all happening outside the normal wheelhouse for the HRRR.
  18. John1122
    The 3k 00z actually evolved very similarly to the 18z regular NAM. Low from Central Alabama to SWVA to WVA. No strange Ohio low.
  19. John1122
    The panel that throws things off on the NAM vs 18z is the panel that pops a low briefly in Ohio. That same panel at 18z had the low in SWVA and it was snowing hard over the Eastern half of the state. The panels prior and just after are virtually no different than 18z.
  20. John1122
    Honestly the NAM looks basically the same as it did at 18z. Just less aggressive on the backside with precip this run.
  21. John1122
    The NAM is a little drunk. 996 lp in Ohio at 42, 993 in WVA at 48.
  22. John1122
    Did the SREF have a late blooming low? I would guess we will see ups and downs over the next 24 hours.
  23. John1122
    The RGEM has scored several wins before, usually related to northern stream events. These anafrontal low spin ups are rare these days but used to be a common way to get 3 to 5 inches imby.
  24. John1122
    After looking I think the MRX grids were likely generated off the 48hr 18z HRRR. That is definitely the inhouse model I just saw WVLT run. It was literally the exact depiction from the HRRR for Thursday. Which suggests very little in the way of snow but the HRRR at 48 is like looking at the GFS at 300.
  25. John1122
    GFS backed down a bit from 12z. Runs will vary from here on out, especially as they are about to leave the global wheelhouse and be more in line with the meso model time frame.
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