John1122

Probably the best hope for areas that get ice is that it rains heavily. That doesn't allow for accretion to the extent that steady lighter rain brings.

RGEM isn't backing off.

Not saying it's going to happen here, but normally in these cases all the way to the Eastern rim or Western edge of the Plateau will see the low level cold invade, there's just not much to stop it as it spreads across the state. The RGEM looks more like what I'd expect. All I know for sure is that it will be tough on WFO to make the right calls until the event is underway most likely.

06z GFS gets the storm back that it lost at 0z. Looks like a less amped Euro with snow from the Plateau west and freezing rain far east. Wave 1 is a major ice event out west. At this point its going to be hard for some part of our western areas and Kentucky to avoid a major ice storm.

The Euro gets Western areas with the first wave of ice, then is suppressed until the 16th timeframe when a major winter storm slides across the South. Heavy snow in the mid-state, snow in the far west and ice in the east. My terribly drawn map below gives an idea of which wave delivers which on the ice. 90 percent of the ice in the 1&2 section is from wave 2. Middle Tennessee is blank because wave 1 misses it on the Euro and wave 2 is snow. It would be more than what the map is showing for snow. That's a 10:1 map. I think it's only 23 degrees in Nashville when the snow is falling. The wave 2 ice starts with temps in the 20s and freezing rain falls for about 10-12 hours then the central and NE areas of the east get a warm nose. The Plateau switches to snow. There's some sleet in the east as well. The ICON was just a massive miller A snowstorm. I've heard it's doing well this year but I rarely look at it. It's map is the last one, it's still snowing from the Jackson area all the way to Tri/SWVA at the time it ends at 180.

Very rare case where the Canadian is way warmer than the GFS. Yet it still has more frozen precip. Has the storm the gfs lost but after front end frozen warms the whole forum and switches to rain but not before front end snow and freezing rain.

Yep, weird Miller B that transferred from the gulf to well off the South Carolina coast.

Looks like it's going to head east vs NE like last run.

Big winter storm deep south Louisiana. May be suppressed vs the 18z run that brought snow.

Not a lot but the cold is 2-3 degrees colder and further east by the day after V-day and something is cooking in Texas/Oklahoma.

6-12 hours later it clears the Plateau and freezing rain to sleet happens there as moisture is pulling out Valentines day.

0z GFS is further east with deeper cold vs 18z. Long duration freezing rain and sleet event unfolding mid state and west. Cold doggedly banks up against the Plateau and sits there.

The power of snow cover plus being surrounded by high ridges. It's 37+ even 10 miles away where the snow melted off today.

I'm honestly not sure where MRX sees the snow when all modeling suggests ice. They have low snow chances in my forecast several days in a row. Hope they are right.

This is a good illustration of the very consistently busted high temp forecasts in the area.

This is the 24 hour trend on the Euro for the ice coming in a couple of days, courtesy of Myfrotho.

Winter storm watches going up in Kentucky, I expect they may in West Tennessee and over to the Clarksville area as well. The RGEM/GGEM has ice storm warning criteria from the Plateau west in the d3 time frame.

The edge of the ZR shield in the Euro has moved south about 40 miles on 3 consecutive runs. I doubt it's done moving yet. That's happened in almost every event since Christmas.

This year models have struggled big time with the blocking to our north. They are apparently programmed to weigh the MJO heavily along with Nina/La Nina. But nothing affects our weather more than blocking in the regions closest to us. That's why the SE ridge is gone or pushed back once we get within 3 or 4 days this year. It also shows up in the cutters that end up being Miller As. We had a few of those this year that trended from Cutter to As. Even a Miller B or two modeled that ended up south of here. The cold was just on the other side of the world when they happened. That's why the higher elevations have done so well this year and it's been nickel and diming every one else. Now we have extreme cold lurking and a good possibility of a truly widespread winter weather event or even several. The precip hasn't shut down all year. The EURO and GFS about a week ago were giving .2 QPF for two weeks here but that fell apart quickly.

Euro/EPS look good for the cold arrival now. Has some suppressed activity then goes for an Apps runner late. Crazy 1050 high in SE Iowa at one point. All in all much colder than 24 hours ago. Just have to hope the timing and track improve. But getting cold is always the most important step.

0z RGEM is slowly sagging the cold into more and more of the forum. This starts in NW Tennessee around hr66.

Oz NAM shifted south towards the RGEM from 18z for the potential freezing rain event beginning in about 3 days for the western parts of the forum area.

Wintery precip is in the forum region at day 3 on that run.

There's a 33 degree difference between NW Tennessee and NE Tennessee the 16th. And it's 28 degrees in far NE Tn. That's just how cold the west side of the valley is at that time.