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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    The NAM is a little drunk. 996 lp in Ohio at 42, 993 in WVA at 48.
  2. John1122
    Did the SREF have a late blooming low? I would guess we will see ups and downs over the next 24 hours.
  3. John1122
    The RGEM has scored several wins before, usually related to northern stream events. These anafrontal low spin ups are rare these days but used to be a common way to get 3 to 5 inches imby.
  4. John1122
    After looking I think the MRX grids were likely generated off the 48hr 18z HRRR. That is definitely the inhouse model I just saw WVLT run. It was literally the exact depiction from the HRRR for Thursday. Which suggests very little in the way of snow but the HRRR at 48 is like looking at the GFS at 300.
  5. John1122
    GFS backed down a bit from 12z. Runs will vary from here on out, especially as they are about to leave the global wheelhouse and be more in line with the meso model time frame.
  6. John1122
    The point forecast at 2500 feet here says less than 1/2 inch of snow possible. For downtown Knoxville it says less than 1 inch possible. No idea how they are seeing the grids unless it's a UKIE/Euro blend.
  7. John1122
    I'd guess tomorrow morning if the models don't lose it, they will issue winter products for the mountains and SWVA. SPS for other areas. I got 4 inches in 4 hours last December and never even got a WWA. Knox got at least 2 and didn't either. They are always very reluctant with WWP outside the mountains and it often works out for them but sometimes doesn't.
  8. John1122
    Looks like they are still rolling exclusively with the Euro/UKIE.
  9. John1122
    I don't remember if we've had one in the last several years. The models have had multiple upgrades since then so I'm not sure how they may handle it now.
  10. John1122
    I wish you guys were in on it too. The pattern at least looks loaded and we may have another thread in a few days.
  11. John1122
    Final RGEM total. as the snow finally leaves the area around 8pm Christmas evening on it.
  12. John1122
    That's the fingers! The models won't place them in the same area two runs in a row but totals will be heavier under them.
  13. John1122
    Still snowing over the area at this point.
  14. John1122
    The RGEM is still snowing over the area up into Christmas morning. Actually building nicely upstream in Kentucky by 10am Christmas morning with light snow.
  15. John1122
    RGEM is probably the model we most want to see come true at this point. Larger snow shield and the 2nd spoke of energy just keeps snow showers around for a long while, especially souhern middle areas.
  16. John1122
    The NAM is still showing the accumulation fingers to some extent and they aren't elevation driven. This run the finger of lighter snow goes from Crossville to Jamestown, two of the 10 snowiest towns in the state.
  17. John1122
    Speaking from experience, being in the bullseye across most modeling for a week straight virtually never works out for me. That's where I've been on almost every model run except the last couple of Euro and UK runs for about 8 days, this event hit the GFS at 228 hours. Don't know if it will be right but except for yesterday it's been rock steady.
  18. John1122
    MRX initial snowmap says they are riding with the UKIE/Euro combo.
  19. John1122
    GFS pops the low in East central Alabama and just buries everyone in the East half of the state. Except for the Nooga snowhole.
  20. John1122
    06z GFS may have been ran by Santa himself.
  21. John1122
    00z GFSV16 which is the new GFS upgrade that will replace the current GFS.
  22. John1122
    Healthy RGEM. Backing snow to the Mississippi. Still snowing across parts of the area at 84.
  23. John1122
    Getting close even for our far west guys.
  24. John1122
    It's epic cold in Russia. If we get the slightest cooperation from the Pacific and gun cross polar flow between that -NAO and a +PNA we'd all need the vodka too.
  25. John1122
    It basically bounced back to its runs leading up to today. Still progressive in getting everything out early. It may be missing some upslope and general snow showers that arctic air squeezes out. Still a good run for the east half of the area.
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