Jump to content

John1122

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    9,692

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    The Euro isn't far off with upper features but it just doesn't get the moisture transport up the front out of Texas and get the miller A going. Huge high on the GFS and Euro. That's some January stuff. Will see how close they verify. Last year both models had issues with too high of pressure dropping out of Canada. In this case, they could lose 5mb and still be big highs.
  2. John1122
    For the shorter term the best things to look for are where blocking sets up in the Pacific and over the Arctic/Atlantic. That will show whether or not we have trough east and ridge west or if we get the ridge with a western trough. You're far enough West that for you a decent case is for us to have a bit of a SE Ridge. You want Apps runners or southern sliders. But all in all it's tough to get anything particularly accurate about the pattern at 500mb beyond 10-14 days. Jax is good with fronts crossing Asia and how they propagate around the globe, but they don't really apply to the long lead you're looking at when you're talking 1 to 3 months. For the Eastern 2/3rds of the forum a cold November led to a colder and often snowy/icy winter roughly 7 of every 10 times they happened. For the western valley areas like Memphis to NE Arkansas and N Miss, the correlation was less. More like 50/50. If the Eastern valley, Nashville, Knox, Chatt, Huntsville, Tri, SE Ky, SWVA etc have a warm November, we are the other side of the coin with about 7 in 10 leading to a warm winter. Jackson, Memphis, Jonesboro, Tupelo weren't as affected by a warm November. I believe they were also around 50/50 on that one too. Meaning you guys had equal chances at a cold or warm winter no matter how November went. Not sure why it worked out differently over a relatively short distance. But there was a stark difference between even Clarksville and Memphis.
  3. John1122
    The Euro and GFS keep the flake chances next Sunday. The Euro is more aggressive than the GFS, especially from Nashville to Eastern Kentucky with 3/4ths inch over the Northern middle Tn areas, 1.5ish into Kentucky. The GFS would just be some flakes in the area. The Canadian has a western Valley ice event centered Eastern Arkansas to Jackson. Stiff coldfront and it's not warm before it arrives. Temps are in the mid 40s ahead of the front on the EURO, mid 10s to low 20s behind it 24 hours later. The Euro looks like the cold squeezing moisture in the form of snow with anafrontal snow behind the front.
  4. John1122
    1989 had similar November cold. I can remember going deer hunting and it was 13 degrees with flurries when I left. That led into the extremely frigid December but of course 1990 broke warm.
  5. John1122
    28 with some freezing fog. Making things super frosty out.
  6. John1122
    The analog of BN November = good winter may fall on it's face again this winter but since today is well BN the next 16 days per the GFS ENS should be uniformly below normal. Let's hope it falls into the more traditional mode of BN November = memorable winter for cold and snowy reasons rather than memorable for nearly wall to wall warmth and no snow like last year. Analogs are never perfect but an approximately 70% correlation is pretty strong over an 80 year period on both sides of the coin. That's why I'll always take my chances with a cool November over a warm one for winter purposes. If you are in the far western Valley/Eastern Arkansas your correlation wasn't as strong either way. So you can pretty much have an equal shot at either type of winter regardless of November patterns, based on the last 100 years or so of data from Memphis.
  7. John1122
    The 80s will fall off the 30 year climate normals soon, when it does it will be much easier to have "below normal" temps in winter.
  8. John1122
    Light snow and 36 degrees here, looks like some flow precip is going.
  9. John1122
    NW wind at 24, temp is now at 45 and falling fast. Feels like a true winter front as advertised from several days ago by Jax.
  10. John1122
    The Claiborne Progress reported that they received a report of a tornado on the ground in Tazewell, but it may have been a prank, because apparently the report says the touchdown was on the football field at a local middle school.
  11. John1122
    We had a warning but 0 thunder. Just a lot of wind.
  12. John1122
    Front just passed here a few minutes ago. Temp has fallen from 64 to 55 in the last 30 minutes.
  13. John1122
    The RGEM, GFS and 3k NAM all have some flakes in my area Thursday evening. Temps are around 35 here at this frame. It was 88 degrees here on October 1st. 50+ degree drop in a month. Its like we had about 15 days of fall this year.
  14. John1122
    It was off by 36 hours or so and too far SE with the low, but that's impressively close for a system from 15 days out.
  15. John1122
    So much soaking rain for hs football tonight. Still drenching down out there. All fall drought/fire concerns are now close to 0. Picked up .88 so far since it started this afternoon with plenty more in the pipeline.
  16. John1122
    See that here all the time, I live in an elevated bowl, I've seen 200 feet rise in elevation make 15 degrees difference in temperatures.
  17. John1122
    34 here this morning. Another frosty one with no freeze.
  18. John1122
    35 and crisp out there this morning. This year is probably the most mornings in the 32-36 range without going well below 32 in a while. Seems like the past several years just went from 40s to a hard freeze with no middle ground.
  19. John1122
    GFS stepped towards the Euro, no more open wave that just blows through the area. It bullseyes Chattanooga with 5 or so inches of rain this weekend. 2-3 for most of the rest if the Valley.
  20. John1122
    The Euro is extremely wet, especially for the southern valley where the drought has been the worst. It's spitting out some 5-8+ inch rain totals over the next 10 days in Northern Alabama. 2-4 pretty wide spread over the rest of the region except for Memphis/Eastern Arkansas where it's closer to 1-2 inches. GFS is way drier and only gets Nashville East basically with it's heaviest rains being far Eastern areas and Western NC.
  21. John1122
    Ended up with 1.69 inches in the last 24 hours. You can see the elevation enhancement on this precip map from the sw/ne orientation of the precip. Extra orographic lift starts in E. Morgan County and enhances precip over my area quite often.
  22. John1122
    Great rains rolling through the last several hours. Heaviest since August, had very little rain in September and most of October but will still finish probably 20 inches AN on the year.
  23. John1122
    Only made 33 this morning, didn't go quite as low as I expected. If the models are right, and we know how big that if is, we may all blow through freezing in about 7-10 days.
  24. John1122
    37 currently, but at 100 percent humidity. Should have a heavy frost again by morning. Expecting 30-32 by morning.
  25. John1122
    Ended up at 34 this morning. I expect I may dip below freezing tonight.
×
×
  • Create New...