John1122

Shoot, it looks great to me. The indices scream winter. The mountain torque event is starting similar to the one that gave us the PNA boost to close out November. The Euro is consistently showing a low road storm in the 8-10 day period. The EPS has a decent mean around that time frame. The Canadian has hinted at a big storm around then too. Late in the Euro's run basically all of southern Canada was in the-15 to -20 range. That's great source air for us. I'm usually very skeptical after the past few winters sunk us. But this winter seems to have way more potential than any we've had since 2016 or so.

Had a nice little 15 or 20 minute band work through. Lots of dime sized flakes with a few nickles. Dry as dust though. 17 degrees.

Merry Christmas, fellow weather enthusiasts. I believe I've "known" some of you guys for nearly 15 years now. Even those of you who've not been around as long, I'm glad to see you here every day. 3 or 4 inches of snow on the ground today is like 10 any other day. We only get to experience this in our back yards once every 8 to 15 years depending on where you live. To our west valley folks, hopefully we are just at the beginning of a prolific winter. We aren't getting extremely cold yet or anything but this system just shows that sometimes timing is all it takes. Hopefully your window comes open during this rare -NAO/-AO combination. If the Pac cooperates as advertised during the first two weeks of January, I think you'll get some fireworks. 80-85 percent of the seasonal snow that falls in the region falls beyond December. So a ton of winter left.

4 inches exactly this A.M. No model got it exactly right. But blending the Canadian/RGem and Euro/GFS and meeting in the middle was about right imby. The HRRR probably got it a few times but with it running every hour it was bound to eventually. I'd guess the RGEM was spot on for the Central eastern Valley but too high the further West you went.

I believe the heavy snow showers in Northern middle are the ones that the models eventually see laying it down on northern Cumberland, Southern Overton, Southen Fentress and maybe over to Holston in Morgan County. When they are on the board the HRRR keys on them and lays the hammer down with them. I'd guess it will show a streak of nice future accumulation from the band that was rolling towards Powell a few minutes ago.

Rolling down.

Absolutely pouring here now. Heaviest since the synoptic snow left.

Accuweather minute cast pretty much nailed the end time of the synoptic snow here earlier this evening. Gonna monitor the next hour and see if it changes or if this band overhead moves on before the 69 minutes are up. Lafollette is a bit SE of me, so I'll shave 10 minutes off the time and see where that gets me.

I've added almost a half an inch of fluff in this band that's been streaming overhead for about 40 minutes now. Its ultra high ratio stuff, probably close to 20:1 right now. Temp is 22, reminds me of upslope.

Looks like there are some real beefy bands in northern middle right now too.

The DGZ is where the atmosphere reaches -10 to -20c. If there's high RH in that sector snow flakes will form. That's why snow can fall from below radar beams with the upper levels are really cold. You can even go out when it's below 0 at the surface at times and flakes will seem to form out of a clear blue sky. That's because the DGZ is very low at that point and any moisture in the air turns to snow flakes.

Has anyone been able to get the new dial pol precip type radar on the NWS site to work? I still have steady light to moderate snow falling. MRX posted no further accumulations the rest of the night a few minutes ago. I'm currently accumulating right now.

The DGZ is probably below 700mb at this point.

Snow actually showing up on radar over me right now. Nickel and dime flakes. Probably high end light to low end moderate snow currently. Looks a little heavier up stream, will try to monitor and compare the rates to radar depiction.

Haven't been looking past this storm other than the eye popping Euro run. I do see that the teleconnections are basically perfect the first several days of January. Super negative AO. Moderately negative NAO. Somewhat positive PNA. Those scream cold and winter storms here. Heck, I'm already close to 7 inches for the season and it's only December 24th. Barring a massive collapse (which is highly possible) I may get my average of around 16-17inches. Though lately I either have a 20-30+ inch season or I have 5 or 6 inch seasons.

No telling where they will end up. But the HRRR continues to put down 2 to 3 inch streaks where it trains them each run. They are never in exactly the same place two runs in a row but give you a good idea of what can happen.

The heavy sleet here laid down a layer of ice in the roads that quickly got topped by heavy snow. Multiple wrecks on I-75. Took my friend's wife almost 3 hours to get from north Knox to Jacksboro. Normally a 40 miunute trip. The heavy rain that prevented any pre-treating was bad news.

HRRR and RAP likes a little band over Cumberland, Fentress and Morgan co. Shows 2-4 more inches there by tomorrow. These bands will be high ratio and should stack up overnight to the tune of an inch or two at least if anyone can get them to train over your back yard. It's currently 23 here and I'm sure will will fall into the 10s as these bands rotate through over night. HRRR even has my area getting another 1 to 1.5 inches. WVLT even had a secondary snow spike tomorrow evening around 4 in Knoxville. They have a it 20 percent snow during the day then 40 in the afternoon. He seems to use the HRRR himself. Or their house model is based on it.

It may take until tomorrow, but the HRRR has a little Bulleye in NW Cumberland that picks up close to 4 inches from the streamers.

Cousins at 2800ft, 6 inches. They had 1.5 inches down when I changed from sleet to snow.

A few photos from around here before dark.

Finally down to flurries here. About 3.75 inches. Banding snow West of the Plateau, possibly even on it but Fentress is a radar black hole.

Not gonna go full RGEM but it beat the Euro/UKiE/NAM imby.

3.5 inches down. Steady snow still falling. TDOT reporting traffic nightmares in Campbell on I-75 due to heavy snow.