John1122

03z RAP is a big hitter as well. Snowing at 51 nearly state wide and just getting heavy East valley north of 40, in SEKY and SWVA by 51 with similar sleet placement to the HRRR, with this already down.

HRRR through that frame, obviously still snowing pretty well at that point.

Getting into HRRR range.

Euro is coming in flatter as well. Means northwestern areas don't get hit quite as hard. Normally I would be happy dancing with this Euro run at D3. This year I'm not as sold. I will say this one will have some nice cold in place.

Most years I'd love this ensemble mean 3 days out. This year

They have been doing it here for 3 days in a row. How is 75?

I didn't look far enough out on the regular gfs earlier to see it ended here.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Memphis TN 848 PM CST Mon Feb 15 2021 ...Another Winter Storm is Expected Tuesday Night through Thursday... .Bitterly cold wind chill readings will continue through midday Tuesday. Wind chill readings will be below zero to as low as 15 below across the Mid-South. Another winter storm is expected to affect the Mid-South as early as Tuesday night, though the greater chance for significant snow, sleet, and freezing rain accumulations will be Wednesday and Thursday. Any accumulations on top of the current snow and sleet will exacerbate travel problems across the Mid- South. ARZ058-MSZ001>005-007-008-010>013-020-021-TNZ004-021-022-049-050- 052>055-088>092-161200- /O.NEW.KMEG.WS.A.0003.210217T0600Z-210219T0000Z/ /O.CON.KMEG.WC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-210216T1800Z/ Phillips-DeSoto-Marshall-Benton MS-Tippah-Alcorn-Tunica-Tate- Coahoma-Quitman-Panola-Lafayette-Tallahatchie-Yalobusha-Henry- Carroll-Benton TN-Tipton-Haywood-Madison-Chester-Henderson- Decatur-Shelby-Fayette-Hardeman-McNairy-Hardin- Including the cities of Helena, West Helena, Southaven, Olive Branch, Holly Springs, Ashland, Ripley MS, Corinth, Tunica, Senatobia, Clarksdale, Marks, Batesville, Oxford, Charleston, Water Valley, Coffeeville, Paris, Huntingdon, Camden, Covington, Brownsville, Jackson, Henderson, Lexington, Parsons, Decaturville, Bartlett, Germantown, Collierville, Memphis, Millington, Somerville, Oakland, Bolivar, Selmer, and Savannah 848 PM CST Mon Feb 15 2021 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY... ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...For the Wind Chill Advisory, very cold wind chills. Wind chill values as low as 10 below zero. For the Winter Storm Watch, heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches and ice accumulations of around two tenths of an inch possible. * WHERE...Portions of North Mississippi, West Tennessee and East Arkansas. * WHEN...For the Wind Chill Advisory, until noon CST Tuesday. For the Winter Storm Watch, from late Tuesday night through Thursday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. The cold wind chills could result in hypothermia and frostbite if precautions are not taken. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use caution while traveling outside. Wear appropriate clothing, a hat, and gloves. Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. && $$

Memphis has already fired up the winter storm watches. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Memphis TN 848 PM CST Mon Feb 15 2021 ...Another Winter Storm is Expected Tuesday Night through Thursday... .Bitterly cold wind chill readings will continue through midday Tuesday. Wind chill readings will be below zero to as low as 15 below across the Mid-South. Another winter storm is expected to affect the Mid-South as early as Tuesday night, though the greater chance for significant snow, sleet, and freezing rain accumulations will be Wednesday and Thursday. Any accumulations on top of the current snow and sleet will exacerbate travel problems across the Mid- South. ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-MOZ113-115-TNZ001>003-019-020- 048-051-161200- /O.NEW.KMEG.WS.A.0003.210217T0600Z-210219T0000Z/ /O.CON.KMEG.WC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-210216T1800Z/ Clay-Greene-Craighead-Poinsett-Mississippi-Cross-Crittenden- St. Francis-Lee AR-Dunklin-Pemiscot-Lake-Obion-Weakley-Dyer- Gibson-Lauderdale-Crockett- Including the cities of Piggott, Corning, Paragould, Jonesboro, Harrisburg, Blytheville, Wynne, West Memphis, Forrest City, Marianna, Kennett, Caruthersville, Tiptonville, Union City, Martin, Dresden, Dyersburg, Humboldt, Milan, Ripley TN, and Alamo 848 PM CST Mon Feb 15 2021 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY... ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...For the Wind Chill Advisory, very cold wind chills. Wind chill values as low as 15 below zero. For the Winter Storm Watch, heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 8 inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze possible. * WHERE...Portions of West Tennessee, East Arkansas and Southeast Missouri. * WHEN...For the Wind Chill Advisory, until noon CST Tuesday. For the Winter Storm Watch, from late Tuesday night through Thursday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. The cold wind chills could result in hypothermia and frostbite if precautions are not taken. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use caution while traveling outside. Wear appropriate clothing, a hat, and gloves. Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. &&

West siders are basically guaranteed to get this one at this point. It's currently trending colder valley wide. As with any winter storm here, bust potential abounds, especially eastern valley areas. All modeling currently shows ice, snow or some combination of the two from Arkansas to SWVA. Let's reel it in!

I stayed snow for that late January event and got 13-14 inches.

The regular GFS was more blotchy and IMO unrealistic compared to it just on the fact that it has weird dollops of heavy snow with nothing north or south of it and it wasn't driven by elevation or anything else.

V16 just crushing parts of the area. It was early with losing the major freezing rain here. Hopefully it's onto something here too.

I know my sounding is wrong on the RGEM. It has my temp at 31 and my dewpoint at 32 at hour 57. The warm nose showed up on it too but less pronounced than the NAM.

It was actually warmer than 18z but got precip into the area earlier. It has a massive warm nose around 750 that no other modeling has.

I looked at obs and the wind went west at 16 with gusts to 28 and it went 40, 35, 33, 31 in about 15 or 20 minutes.

Jan 2010. Nearly 50 inches here 2009-2010 season.

Crossville looks to have rapidly fallen about 9 degrees and appear to be back in the freezing fog. I figure that will be here soon. I got up to 36 at the height of the heavy rain and have settled back to 34 right now.

Basically little or none in my experience. The upper levels torch and you change to rain regardless of snow on the ground.

MRX acknowledged the possibility of frozen on the front end for the first time in their AFD. I can't blame them for being reluctant to do much with it, the NAM actually seems to have done pretty well with this event and it isn't onboard yet.

I feel you on that one. Heavy rain just started here and the temp went up to 32.9. Glad it's not more ice. I hate all the tree clean up. Already have some from the snow.

It doesn't shock me. I will note that in my experience the model depicted ptype comes to pass more often than the sounding ptype.

I'm sub 32 from 850 to 925 to surface during the height of the front end thump per the Euro...what could possibly go wrong?

I've seen freezing fog here before, just not day after day of it until it brings trees and limbs down. How are you faring?

Freezing fog storm.