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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    The blocking by day 8-10 on the Euro is just crazy. The EPS just says "hey Miller A, meet this cold" in the 11-15 day range. Now we just need to reel it in and we should have business picking up.
  2. John1122
    Eric Webber says the strat split will likely couple with a west based -NAO and likely give us the best Atlantic based blocking since 2009-11 winters. He's pretty enthusiastic from Mid January on about it. Granted I think he's in Eastern NC and that may mean different weather for him vs us. But a powerful -NAO should help us all.
  3. John1122
    Always favor the Pacific. We had a +PNA heading into the Christmas eve event. It's looking to hang out around neutral to mildly positive the next two weeks. It's not easy to make things work here and especially any further west of me, with a PNA that isn't at least neutral or some big time EPO help.
  4. John1122
    I'd love to see West and Middle areas get a big winter storm this season. The ice they probably don't want. Some of the ice scenarios showing up rignt now would be crippling to the power grid.
  5. John1122
    Hi-res GFS crush job out West. Regular GFS is a severe ice storm too. Memphis just stays at 31 for a long time with freezing rain. The Canadian is a a little further West and just makes a glacier in Texas, Oklahoma and Arkansas.
  6. John1122
    Looking at that image, the biggest snow drought area is basically over the NAO region. I wonder if that's a result of a -NAO there after SSWs?
  7. John1122
    This is the composite 0-60 day snowfall from 1958-2014 after all SSW events, both splits and disruptions. The lightest blue is a 10 percent increase in average snowfall the darkest is up to a 50 percent increase. I had to drop and rotate to get a decent look at the United States. Our forum region does as well as any other area in North America after a SSW.
  8. John1122
    Looking at SSW events between 1958 and 2002, if the SSW happened in December/January in most cases the 60 day snowfall here was above average. If it happened in February or another month, snowfall was more often below average for the next 60 days.
  9. John1122
    After getting .20 to .60 or so of freezing rain West Tennessee, West KY and NE Arkansas gets this.
  10. John1122
    GFS shifted towards the Euro that run. Might have a thread called "AMZ's New Years Rockin Eve" or something like that if the west shifts can stop now.
  11. John1122
    Forecast was 38 today. Made it to 30.
  12. John1122
    Was at 12 by 9PM last night and thought I might make a run at 0. Only got down to 5 though.
  13. John1122
    The EURO shifted south with it's frozen shield at 12z and isn't bad for West Tennessee. I suspect it and the GFS will eventually meet. It seems like it's been folding towards the GFS this winter.
  14. John1122
    Canadian is a cutter, Euro/GFS are very close to the system we just had. Let's see if it sticks around. The system yesterday was constant for a week.
  15. John1122
    She's still showing up 6 days out.
  16. John1122
    I was wondering how those middle Tennessee streamers were doing. There looked to be some very heavy ones north of you.
  17. John1122
    Just before sunset it was dropping huge flakes. I was at the Cumberland Trail head getting some drinking water out of the natural spring there. I picked up another 1/2 inch in that band. 5 total for the event. Still flurries flying around out there.
  18. John1122
    It was pouring half dollars for the last 20 minutes or so. Huge flakes.
  19. John1122
    I posted that and the sun was peeking out. As soon as I looked back outside it was like living in a fog cloud. Amazing how badly the NAM missed these snow showers. The Canadian suite nailed them.
  20. John1122
    It's snowed all day here for the most part. Added 1/2 inch additional accumulation. 4.5 total.
  21. John1122
  22. John1122
    Shoot, it looks great to me. The indices scream winter. The mountain torque event is starting similar to the one that gave us the PNA boost to close out November. The Euro is consistently showing a low road storm in the 8-10 day period. The EPS has a decent mean around that time frame. The Canadian has hinted at a big storm around then too. Late in the Euro's run basically all of southern Canada was in the-15 to -20 range. That's great source air for us. I'm usually very skeptical after the past few winters sunk us. But this winter seems to have way more potential than any we've had since 2016 or so.
  23. John1122
    Had a nice little 15 or 20 minute band work through. Lots of dime sized flakes with a few nickles. Dry as dust though. 17 degrees.
  24. John1122
    Merry Christmas, fellow weather enthusiasts. I believe I've "known" some of you guys for nearly 15 years now. Even those of you who've not been around as long, I'm glad to see you here every day. 3 or 4 inches of snow on the ground today is like 10 any other day. We only get to experience this in our back yards once every 8 to 15 years depending on where you live. To our west valley folks, hopefully we are just at the beginning of a prolific winter. We aren't getting extremely cold yet or anything but this system just shows that sometimes timing is all it takes. Hopefully your window comes open during this rare -NAO/-AO combination. If the Pac cooperates as advertised during the first two weeks of January, I think you'll get some fireworks. 80-85 percent of the seasonal snow that falls in the region falls beyond December. So a ton of winter left.
  25. John1122
    4 inches exactly this A.M. No model got it exactly right. But blending the Canadian/RGem and Euro/GFS and meeting in the middle was about right imby. The HRRR probably got it a few times but with it running every hour it was bound to eventually. I'd guess the RGEM was spot on for the Central eastern Valley but too high the further West you went.
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