Jump to content

John1122

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    9,703

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    The Euro maps are pretty close to that. Looks like it shows 1.5-2 around BNA. Just east and SE of Davidson towards Murfreesboro looks close to 2.5-3.
  2. John1122
    Bullish Euro there for the mid Valley. Enough model agreement within a short time (less than 3 days now) to start a thread for it imo, even if it doesn't work out. The latest round model blend consensus pretty much gives the Plateau to Western highland rim as its key areas. But at least one of the models puts about the entire Valley in play to some extent. Also doesn't seem overly elevation dependent per the Euro, the heaviest snow in the area falls over both the NW Plateau but also in NW Alabama up through middle Tennessee right into the lower elevations in Nashville.
  3. John1122
    You and me both. It used to be fairly common to see rain changing to accumulating snow here but not so much in the last decade or so.
  4. John1122
    Hi-res GFS which these hi res models sometimes key too much on terrain and heat islands. But it sure sees the Nashville heat island here.
  5. John1122
    5 years ago if models were showing what they are now under 100 hours out, I'd be 90 percent sold that we were going to get accumulating snow. These past two years have made me believe its 90/10 in the no snow direction regardless of what models spit out within even 72 hours of an event.
  6. John1122
    Canadian not as crazy as 12z, but still healthy for most of the Valley, 1-3 over most of the region with a few heavier dollops. I'd take a blend of operational and hi res models from tonignt and be content.
  7. John1122
    Once I looked at it closer and watched a few more timea, it looked like it was showing .5/1 inch totals every few hours for several periods? Looked like parts of mid and West Tennessee would have gotten 1-3 at least there.
  8. John1122
    Played for me fine. Just zoomed in and could see it well on my phone. I suspect it's going to be correct. These operational models I feel are overdoing things. If they aren't by some miracle, the western 2/3rds of the area from the Plateau west look golden on the American models. The GFS and NAM are trying hard to wallop the mid-state and even down into N. Miss.
  9. John1122
    I would love to see it come. You're welcome. Don't often even see model runs within 4 days that cover basically the entire Tennessee valley footprint with at least some snow on the ground.
  10. John1122
  11. John1122
    Several bonkers solutions. The ggem is just about as good as it gets for the entire Valley footprint.
  12. John1122
    The Canadian snowmap is similar to quite a few past snow events here. Actually looks like a small scale version of the February 1996 one I wrote about with a similar snow area just south of Memphis with increasing totals as you head towards East Tn/SEKy/SWVA.
  13. John1122
    0z GFS keeps the snow going on the back side of the Monday/Tuesday system. The GFS spits out 3-5 inches from the Plateau through most of the central sections of the valley, including Nashville. The Canadian is leaning towards the GFS solution as well, just a bit further south and east with the snow shield so the heaviest snow runs from Southern Ark, Northern Miss to the eastern half of the valley, where it's significant.
  14. John1122
    2, 11, 18, 27 and 40 were also pretty healthy for parts of the forum area. 11 dropped 10-13 inches in Memphis/East Arkansas. 28, I admit, would make me pretty happy since it gave me about 2 feet. Fairly encouraging that there are very few blanks in the 50 members. Quite a few show at least an inch for a large amount of the forum area, a good number in the 1-3 inch range as well.
  15. John1122
    18z GFS was pretty aggressive again on the snow for early next week. It would touch just about all of us with at least flakes in the air.
  16. John1122
    GFS bringing shenanigans in a few days.
  17. John1122
    It's really hard to get anything done here with an unfavorable Pacific. But a favorable one can render the Atlantic meaningless. February 2015 was a +NAO/+AO combination. The Pacific drove the entire pattern. Big EPO ridge suppressed the storm track in the East and delivered major cold. Temps finished around -8 to -12 for the month in the region with multiple winter storms.
  18. John1122
    There were a lot of blanks and a few heavy hitters on the EPS. For pie in the sky fantasy, member 34 casually dropped about 2 feet on Nashville and 12+ over most of the region. It alone would likely skew the average.
  19. John1122
    After trying to figure how TYS recorded only 8 inches of snow for the February 1st-2nd 1996 event, I went and looked at the hourly data from Feb 1st and 2nd of that year. I recall the snow starting in Knoxville before it did here as it worked it's way South to North, and it had started here by 7-8 pm. Looking back at old news footage at the time, Knox was reporting snow by 8-9 pm as well. This was a cold event with temps in the upper teens to mid 20s in the area. Snow fell in Knox as the temp dropped quickly from 28 at the start to 19. This should have produced higher ratio snows, and that is reflected in observations that are harder to find than the normal big 3 reporting stations you'll find looking at MRX data, which are Tri/Chatt/Tys. On the hourly reports at Knox from Feb 1st freezing precip starts in the form of freezing rain/fog with 10.5 mile vis, and .02 inches of precip fall as freezing rain. The reports then indicated only fog in Knox, but .12 precip falls, then another period with .12 precip falls, this time the temp is in the 20s and the visibility has fallen to 1 mile at observation time. None of this is recorded as snow. Official data says snowfall 0.00, precip .26. I'm 99.9 percent sure that both periods of .12 were in the form of snow. From midnight to 1am on the 2nd, Knoxville records another .12 precip, once again it's labeled as fog. with a visibility of 1 mile. So .36 has fallen at this point, with 0.00 listed as anything but fog. The next observation says snow .13, followed by snow .15. The snow continues with the aforementioned temps falling into the 10s and finally an observed precip amount of .86 falling as snow. The official snowfall is claimed to be 8 inches from that .86, which I think is absolutely wrong based on QPF, temp profiles and observations all around the site. Knoxville had 1.37 fall as frozen but has missing data listed for snowfall and snow depth for the 1st. I figure the .86 with a lot of it falling at temps below 25 would be close to 10 inches on it's own. I'd guess Tys probably actually had 12+ inches of snow like every other station in it's immediate vicinity. But as Carvers mentioned, it's the year of inexplicably missing snowfall data at the big 3 reporting sites from that time frame.
  20. John1122
    Intense little bands keep streaming across the area. Some 1/2 mile or less visibility at times. Probably 1/3rd inch since dark.
  21. John1122
    Another round of heavy snow working through. Coated back what had melted earlier.
  22. John1122
    Had a very heavy snow shower about 45 minutes ago. I enjoy seeing it fall if nothing else. Looks like we could get some more flakes in a week or so.
  23. John1122
    Not as much as I wanted (it never is) but I'm over 2 inches on the season with the first two events and it's only the 2nd day of winter. Hopefully I can get back to at least an average year.
  24. John1122
    Basically the same story here as Daniel Boone, around an inch on decks and cars, less than half that managed to stay on the ground.
  25. John1122
    Not much going on here. Snow shower runs by and lasts 5 minutes then it stops. Looks like Western Kentucky is filling in pretty well upstream.
×
×
  • Create New...