John1122

Warmed up to 34 and have had some heavy rain, but in the last 15 minutes it's switched back to sleet. Very rare to see that happens once the rain starts.

Mixed with sleet now. It's rattling off my windows.

Big quarter +flakes starting to mix in with the nickels and dimes. Looks like down in Lafollette its coming down too.

Some heavier returns just about a mile to my west.

MRX mentions NNW flow. I do well with that and Walnut and Black Mountain here will generate a band that reaches north Knox at times in NNW flow.

32 and snow currently. Future radar has it lasting another 2 hours without changing over here but I'll be stunned if that happens.

Looks like the front edge of the precip is snow as it's reaching Fentress County. Still at 32 here.

I am expecting it to warm overnight but the predicted high of 41 today is actually 32 so far.

Around 1/2 inch here. It snowed very hard with half dollars for a while. The last two mornings in the 10s meant the roads got covered immediately.

Looks like snow in Crossville area and possibly soon here. I'm working on my mountain property this afternoon and just got into service and saw the radar.

It was 16 this morning and is still below freezing here. 2 days in a row in the teens, then cold rain falling should have ground Temps fairly set for this.

Basically the entire 06z suite is on board with the 0z Euro. MRX remains typically bearish outside the mountains, where they will likely issue a WSW by tomorrow, as they are bullish there. They mention 1200 feet as the likely snow line but also say most of the valley will see some snow in the air. To date this year I've had a lot of over performers imby with one bust, that being a couple days ago with the dusting.

Dr. No is actually more Dr. Yes than most for the snow potential Sunday night and into early week.

I will say this, the never ending NAO has prevented torch fest but the meh at best Pacific has prevented any Arctic invasion. We got a favorable Pacific briefly around Christmas and it got cold for all and snowy for a lot of us. I also have noticed as I am sure we all have, the models keep pushing for the SE ridge to return and have almost all winter in the long range but when it comes time, it never quite materializes. But because the Pac isn't favorable we have too much warm air to quite stay frozen with most systems. The best case scenario for us is a suppressed track driven by a cooperative NAO/AO/Pacific and we get over running slider events that snow from Arkansas to North Carolina. Other ways are that massive cold bulge coming east enough to keep us on the cold side while systems form on it because of the SE ridge. It's a fine line but when you get that Arctic air lucking nearby you have to start watching for ice events, especially from the Plateau and westward. SE ridge + frigid Midwest is a setup where it's raining and 50 in the Tri-Cities and 28 and freezing rain in Memphis at times. You just never know where the front will stall, but stalling against the Apps is somewhat common in that scenario.

Kept waiting on someone else to start a February thread but it didn't quite come to fruition. Hopefully the frigid possibility is not a head fake and we get some real valley wide storm threats to go along with it.

Long range GFS is just absolutely epic cold.

Not showing up on radar at all, but have steady nickels falling right now. NW flow stuff I assume, since it often isn't picked up by radar. 30 degrees.

Much to my surprise, its snowing very hard and its very windy. Actually hard to see a couple of times driving up the mountain. Almost like a snow squall.

Snowing but its gonna be brief unless there's some kind of redevelopment coming. Looking like the GFS is in absolutely screaming megabust territory here at this point. Thought that was possible.

Temp is down to 40 with specked blues and greens starting to move in. Nothing reaching the ground here yet though.

42 degrees here. DP 25. Kinda dry air but I think it may switch over fairly fast here. Just hope for QPF.

GFS is just incredibly enthusiastic here. The V16 can't even keep up.

OHX issued a WWA for their Plateau counties. Says 1-2 inches with higher amounts in spots. MRX issued one for their Plateau counties over into SW VA and NE Tennessee. Generally a 1-3 inch forecast for now. Said they were going to follow the HRRR.

3k NAM. It also ticked up quite a bit across the area. This one may get Kevin in NE Arkansas as well.

Models are on the uptick state wide with the GFS being downright aggressive. So if figured we may as well have a last minute forecast and Obs thread for it.