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John1122

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  1. John1122
    Looking back at the thread, there was some mixing in some areas but it was way colder than inituallly forecast. MRX had valley highs in the upper 30s. No one seemed to make it above 27. 2-6 inches plus ice/sleet underneath were common here. That may have been the last great clipper we've had here in winter.
  2. John1122
    That said, the biggest difference in that event and this one was that one was extremely cold. Models busted like crazy on that aspect. 72 hours out the NAM had heavy precip but had it as rain or freezing rain over a lot of the area. By event time temps were between 19-24 and it was all snow. 84 hours out models were showing 1-3 inches with a few dollops. At 48 hours the RGEM had started showing some 4-6 inch totals. During the event the HRRR started showing the 5-6 inch totals.
  3. John1122
    This was in the January 2016, 19th or 20th.
  4. John1122
    Need the Margie Ison pic. She was the Clipper queen. We used to get a couple every winter that were 2-4 locks.
  5. John1122
    We had an ultra clipper a few years ago that models just downplayed til the end besides the rgem, which began to catch on about 48 hours out. Border counties from the mid-state east got 3-6 inches. I believe 2-4 was fairly wide spread elsewhere. Model totals rose to the very last run and most never caught up.
  6. John1122
    Both systems on the 06z GFS by midnightish Monday.
  7. John1122
    MRX really downplaying any accumulation outside of where banding sets up Friday night into Saturday but says accumulation will happen under the bands. Which for some reason they say are more likely in NETN/SWVA (which I don't really see why they say that other than that they always say that with any potential event) but they feel short term/hi-res models will likely be the only thing that sniffs them out once the event is very close.. . Regardless, the GFS was particularly nice at 06z with the potential on the 1st wave.
  8. John1122
    UKIE has two systems in the next 5 days that do pretty well for a lot of the area.
  9. John1122
    Long range GFS fridigity.
  10. John1122
    GFS has nearly forum wide accumulations.
  11. John1122
    NAM has some good looking snow showers moving across the area and another clipper poised to follow at the end of it's run.
  12. John1122
    The Euro has now moved some pretty cold air into our region inside of D10. Looking back from around January 1st, I'm actually more surprised we've seen several wintery chances from then til Jan 15th or so than I am that the cold looks to be moving in around January 20th and beyond. I expected much less favorable weather during these past couple of weeks and modeling was showing that at the time. But as we approach verification time the NAO tends to remain negative and we stay on the cool/warm roller coaster with embedded snow/wintry chances based on timing. We have a good cold shot coming with another wintry chance in a few days.
  13. John1122
    Regarding the SSW, it's likely fueling the continued -NAO, which is keeping the SE ridge just enough at bay to keep us from having 0 chance at anything but 60s and cutters.
  14. John1122
    Good write up by MRX this morning about the potential for snow Friday night into Saturday morning and how models are very possibly underdoing the precip that falls as snow. MRX also mentioned there will be no temp issues and all areas will see frozen that see precip.
  15. John1122
    Later in the run the GFS has a huge snow event and near 0 cold. But it's also likely to change significantly by 06z too.
  16. John1122
    The OP GFS after day 7 is not worth getting excited over or upset about. Keep in mind 6 hours ago it tossed the arctic into our backyard at the same time frame as it's showing a poor pattern now.
  17. John1122
    The 0z ICON has a perfect southern slider that is really nice for Western areas especially but gets the whole state basically. The GFS has multiple 1-2+ inch events over the next week or so and it really hammers elevated areas in the East with big time upslope.
  18. John1122
    I wouldn't be surprised to have some AN out there but it looks to be transitional. Those forecasts usually center on D11.
  19. John1122
    Snow moving back in now. Nickels flying.
  20. John1122
    I'm hoping with dark coming on they can get something to stick if they haven't already.
  21. John1122
    That band north of Nashville has had some pretty good reflectivity this afternoon. I hope some of our posters in that area at least got something nice to look at.
  22. John1122
    Some pretty good analogs at 500mb showing up on the EPS today. It's forecasting a -EPO in the offing too. We have a -PNA but when the EPO is right that isn't a huge deal, it just means the trough is likely oriented NW to SE or something close to that. In 2014 we had a big Valentines day snow event with a -PNA of about 1.1. In the long range at 500 the EPS has a very similar look to Jan 9th-11th 2011. There was a very snowy period for about 10 days with a nice overrunning event right there around the 10th. It snowed multiple days in a row here during that time frame and we had below 0 cold here on the Plateau with highs in the upper 10s and lower 20s. Even Knoxville had nearly 5 inches of snow on the 10th with only .3ish qpf. That also had a -PNA but a nice -EPO/-NAO combination.
  23. John1122
    Anyone in the mid-state seeking anything from the returns out there?
  24. John1122
    It stopped for a while but steady light snow has moved back into the area. Temp is holding steady at 32.8. The sun will set for me in about an hour and 20 minutes. But likely won't see any additional accums unless the rates really pick up. I do not however, expect to switch to rain at any point at this point.
  25. John1122
    I don't know we are seeing the end or if some of the stuff in Alabama and West Tennessee will make it here this evening. Seeing people in Alabama who have 3 inches and are getting some of their heaviest rates of the event right now.
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