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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    The Pacific being poor is just a killer. I'd take a favorable Pacific over the -NAO 8 days a week. Miller A rain event happen when the Pacific is bad. Wide spread winter is possible when it's good even if the Atlantic is bad.
  2. John1122
    The AO is supposed to go epic in it's negativity. If the Pacific can marginally cooperate we should be heading for frigid weather later in the month.
  3. John1122
    Definitely and uptick in snow across most members vs 12z.
  4. John1122
    Starting at 102 the GEFS has most members showing a 24 hour winter event evolving across the Valley.
  5. John1122
    There's some school of thought that solar flares tighten the polar vortex and cause the NAO to go + but that it runs in 100 year cycles that cause it to go negative. You can probably guess which cycle we appear to be in right now. However, not all is lost, just late year researchers at Columbia University in the Earth Observatory and School of Engineering released a paper that pretty much debunked any connection between the two.
  6. John1122
    The difference in the 00z Euro vs the 12z is the PNA ridging. At 00z is was stronger and it shunted the system further south, that let it wind up more. 12z the ridge was less sharp and the system stayed weak and open as it rolled across the south. I wouldn't sleep on it yet. It may not be a block buster but I wouldn't rule out snow for someone in the region from it.
  7. John1122
    Not saying the Euro is going to verify, but events like that do happen here, it's just been a while. One of these days it's eventually going to happen again.
  8. John1122
    Major winter storm on the Canadian as well for the region later in the run. Ice and snow on top of it. The teleconnections look much better. The Euro is getting towards a -EPO/-AO/-NAO look.
  9. John1122
    At 500, the GFS looks great around the 15th all of a sudden. Nice -EPO bumping into Alaska with a near nationwide trough.
  10. John1122
    Not as extreme as the Euro, but the Icon laid down a solid 2-3 inch stripe from the Plateau to Nashville and a little southwest of there, also a dollop of 2 inch area in NE Mississippi in the same timeframe as the Euro storm.
  11. John1122
    For some reason I expected it to be warmer today. It's a steady 35 and should probably start falling in the next hour, as the sun will set for me in about 10 minutes.
  12. John1122
    I just noticed how impressively it blanks Knox county on that run.
  13. John1122
    The Euro just bombed the mid-state.
  14. John1122
    I actually saw a story yesterday discussing ways to mitigate global warming via man made activities. One was reflecting sunlight via billions of floating pingpong balls. Others were releasing aerosolized sulfate high in the atmosphere at around 65000 feet, and using sea water to seed clouds. They said that each could lower global temps by .8 to 1.3c in the next decade. If if brings back winter, I say let it ride.
  15. John1122
    Had a decent snow shower before dark that lasted about 15 minutes.
  16. John1122
    A few flurries floating around here.
  17. John1122
    Probably the most positive about that EPS/GEPS/GEFS long range, a crap ton of cold should build across Siberia, Alaska and Canada as we approach the first day of solar winter. Those regions are ultimately our source for cold air when it gets tapped. The pattern looks changeable enough that we could get some very cold blasts during relaxations in the warmth. Those are fairly common in La Nina patterns historically, though I pause to use historical outlooks these days because they don't seem to work out as often.
  18. John1122
    The next 10-14 days look volatile, at least on the Euro. Cold/warm/cold/warm roller coaster weather. The Euro loads Alaska with cold and occasionally ridging out west bumps a piece towards us. As for snow, all about timing but we will likely have a least one cutter in the next 10 days.
  19. John1122
    The EPS basically kept us BN again at 12z in the extended range due to a West coast ridge that holds the SE ridge at bay. By late run Alaska and the SE are the only BN areas around North America.
  20. John1122
    Ended up with .72 of rain from this system. The soaking continues. We are likely to experience another epic drought before long. Something will have to balance the three year barrage of rainfall here.
  21. John1122
    EPS was night and day different 12z to 00z. It went from a deep Alaska vortex at D 14 to a PNA ridge, -NAO look and a deep Eastern trough.
  22. John1122
    The EPS is a worst case scenario. The polar vortex heads to Alaska in about 2 weeks. That tends toward being a stubborn pattern to dislodge. Have to hope it doesn't happen at all.
  23. John1122
    Some years we get stuck in a pattern and models try to get out of them, but they just stay in place as we get to reality. Granted, 80 percent of the time the pattern seems to lock in never ending warmth. But a few years it locks and repeats cold like 95-96, 09-10, 10-11, 14-15, 15-16 etc. Usually once those patterns finally do break we get a long term swing in the opposite direction. Unfortunately for us, the last several locked in long term repeating warmth patterns lasted until basically the start of Met spring and we just had cold. wet, miserable spring seasons. In the years where cold repeated, usually by mid February it lifted out and we torched for weeks on end. It seems like one of those years summer basically started in late April and never let up.
  24. John1122
    If you like bone chilling cold, this is the map for you. EPO blocking in Alaska and NAO blocking creates a -AO as well and the takes the cold from Siberia and dumps it through Alaska and into the Lower 48, aimed perfectly at our region.
  25. John1122
    The complete fantasy but true definition of a board wide megastorm that Warbus mentioned in the pattern thread. Look at it to see what a Tennessee Valley masterpiece looks like. This is about as good as it can get from one end of the Tennessee Valley region to the other. Very hard to pull this off because it is so far geographically from Bristol/SWVA to Eastern Arkansas/Northern Miss.
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