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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    It was 50/50 when I last posted, now it's 90 percent snow with a little sleet. Dusting on cars and decks so far.
  2. John1122
    Probably not going to last long or amount to anything, but getting a moderate snow/sleet mixture at the moment.
  3. John1122
    I generally use the ratio'd map and take 30 percent off of it. The ratio'd map works for every situation, wet snow, 10:1 or dry/high ratio snow.
  4. John1122
    I've not seen, but possibly flooding.
  5. John1122
    Ironically last year this was the one thing that didn't prevent snow from falling here.
  6. John1122
    Big winter storm for areas west of the Plateau and the far eastern areas. Nothing doing along the plateau and eastern valley. 0z gave me 9 inches, 12z 1 inch. Still a long way to go unfortunately.
  7. John1122
    The temp is holding in the upper 40s here. Probably not going to reach the 60ish level that has been predicted for today.
  8. John1122
    I've had 6.5 inches of snow so far this winter, but it's not seemed like much of anything because it's came in small increments. Last year I did the same thing, biggest snow was in March after the sswe. Not sure what the deal is this winter, just blah with nothing working out. It's always tough wasting cold stretches in January without seeing anything. It's almost getting to the point where we don't have meaningful snow events in January any more. Even our last couple of good winters were February loaded.
  9. John1122
    The 0Z NAM is back to being a significant winter storm for the middle valley areas. LP develops on the front and tracks up the Apps. Nash and Northern Middle gets some heavy icing, and 2-4 inches of snowfall on the eastern Highland Rim, Northern Middle, Southern Kentucky. North of Nashville the snow and ice overlap.
  10. John1122
    The models are so terrible right now that I'm looking for one in the hand instead of two in the bush! Two days ago the models had 3 threats in this 5 day stretch. Now they maybe have a small threat tomorrow night and maybe snow showers this weekend. MRX has taken 3 different 50+ percent chances out of my forecast for this time period. That said, I'm holding out hope for next week but have no expectations anything actually happens.
  11. John1122
    Most modeling is now showing a heavy burst of snow on the backside, whether that actually happens or not is still to be determined. The ground is cold and will be wet, I once ready that wet ground actually wasn't as bad as warmer dry ground for sticking. I'm sure above 2500 here will do okay but not sure how the rest of us will fare. Southern Kentucky looks pretty good for getting an inch or two for this one too, at least on models.
  12. John1122
    The FV3 backed off somewhat but still has 1-3+ inch totals with the system. Still some areas of .25+ freezing rain as well.
  13. John1122
    This year you can't trust models 2-5 days out that show snow, let alone 7+ apparently. It's so weird too that two years in a row we get extremely cold but can't get the northern stream to swing anything across the area. They keep getting modeled in the 5 day range but as they get closer they just go away on the models. 10 years ago if the GFS showed a threat within 5 days, it was a pretty solid bet that it would happen, especially if it showed an event south/east of here. Somehow things have gotten worse the higher the model resolution. The FV3 is still giving me 3+ inches tomorrow night. It is, from what I understand, the highest resolution model ever made for range with the ability to model individual clouds, but it is either struggling with this next system or it's going to pull one hell of a coup.
  14. John1122
    MRX says light accumulation here Wednesday into Thursday. That's usually their wording for 1-3 inches. Up to a 50 percent chance of snow Saturday night. The short waves rotating from the NW over the next few days change their timing with almost every run.
  15. John1122
    If a wave develops on the front, there's a chance, if the front just breezes on through the SE, not much will happen.
  16. John1122
    The FV3 stuck to it's guns on post frontal snow again Wednesday. At this point I'm curious to see when/if it's going to give in before the event. This time it gives everyone from 40 north, Nash, Cookeville, Knox, Morristown to Tri a burst of heavy snow. I can't believe it's true, but if it's not, it's crazy that the upgrade to the GFS is performing this poorly, this close to the event.
  17. John1122
    18z NAM holds onto the freezing rain threat Wednesday evening. Even .10 zr makes for horrible travel.
  18. John1122
    What a world, when Louisiana gets more snow than good portions Tennessee the past two years and it looks to continue this year if the Euro is to be believed.
  19. John1122
    The GFS has Plateau and Middle Tennessee snow, as well as Southern Kentucky. The FV3 is still a major winter storm. It's crazy how long it's held onto that solution. Northern stream energy of various strength will rotate through from Thursday - Sunday with Sunday into Monday perhaps being a bigger system, or perhaps it gets buried OTS. My point forecast from MRX has them with pretty high pops for a change over to snow/sleet then snow Wednesday night with chances of snow all the way through Sunday. Wednesday Night Rain before midnight, then rain, snow, and sleet between midnight and 1am, then snow likely after 1am. Low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Thursday A 30 percent chance of snow before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 31. Thursday Night A 30 percent chance of snow after 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 17. Friday A 20 percent chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 26. Friday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 14. Saturday A 20 percent chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 32. Saturday Night A 40 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22. Sunday A 40 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 30.
  20. John1122
    The NAM is upping the coverage of freezing rain with the first system and it also has some snow around southern Kentucky, and Mid and West Tennessee.
  21. John1122
    The Euro dumped snow over Alabama and Middle Tennessee in the later period here, the precip dies out with the LP in the Gulf, the storm then runs up the coast and gets Western NC. It basically does everything in it's power to not snow very much over far western or far eastern Valley areas. But Mobile Alabama and the Florida beaches near the Alabama line get 5-8 inches of snow. 3-5 in most of Alabama and Middle Tennessee. 1-2 in the eastern valley and western valley areas. The low is in the 990s in Northern Florida and there's not much more than a flurry near Johnson County as it turns up the coast. The Euro has nothing to speak of in the mid-week event. Maybe 30 minutes of frozen on the very back edge for some areas.
  22. John1122
    18z FV3 vs 0z showing a shift more NW with the low track. The day prior it swings down and there's a brief return flow from the GOM into our area as the low forms in the Gulf.
  23. John1122
    FV3 is a day later with event #3. It is a major deep south snow storm, but the snow shield shifted well NW of 18z at 0z. This one, as I said, may be thread worthy on it's own at some point a few days from now.
  24. John1122
    FV3 insists on these streaks of zr. I imagine they will be more uniform if they happen and less heavy. FV3 also more robust with it's snow from event 1 once again.
  25. John1122
    There are several threats of snow/ice/rain coming over the Wednesday afternoon-Sunday period per most all modeling and area forecast offices. After the cold front passes on Wednesday there is potentially a change over and also a wave of low pressure riding up the front that may cause accumulating ice and snow on the back side. After that system passes a series of Northern stream disturbances ride down into the Valley region behind the system. These clippers have the potential to bring further accumulating snow and very cold temps to the entire forum area. From Wednesday-Sunday the GFS/Euro/FV3 gives most of the forum various amounts of accumulating frozen precip during the events. There are several to come after this potentially, so this will hopefully allow the main pattern thread to discuss the threats further down the road and the overall look through the rest of the month into February while allowing the short term threats room for disco. The latest GFS has the ice threat and it puts down 1-6+ inches of snow forum wide for the next three events, the final one has the potential to be the biggest threat of the 3 as it swings down into the GOM and may warrant a thread of it's own.
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