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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    Snow amounts did tick up in the 00z suite so far. If I were guessing I'd say an inch or two may fall in some non elevated areas of Middle Tennessee especially, but it'll be hard to have more than a heavy dusting to 1/2 inch on the grass the further west you are due to time of day and warm ground temps. Right now I'm just hoping to see something and hopefully it's not the best event of winter.
  2. John1122
    If you're in a favorable upslope area you're probably going to score regardless. Above 4000 will be rocking, I'd say LeConte will rack up 10+ inches. They are the upslope capital of the south.
  3. John1122
    The Canadian is pretty insistent for this event being decent to great for Middle Tennessee. It's just tough to trust with synoptic details, especially when it's sort of on an island.
  4. John1122
    The 1950 storm featured snow on one side and rain on the other. That particular model run featured snow way down here but rain on every side of the storm otherwise. It ended up being the only run that showed that solution.
  5. John1122
    The Canadian is the most consistent model. The GFS moved the track 400ish miles in the past 24 hours. The NAM is further east than either model but it's the late run NAM. If I were making a guess none are right right now but the track will probably be somewhere in their window. The GFS was the least snowy model, the NAM looked like it was going to be healthy for the Northern midstate. The Canadian is friendly to that area too.
  6. John1122
    18z suite generally agrees with earlier runs. Looking more like elevated areas are probably going to be it for accumulation but there may be flakes in the air for a much wider area. The models haven't resolved their issues outside of 36-48 hours that were prevalent the last two years. Especially the ensemble means. Backside events rarely work very well. Models almost always over do moisture associated with them. Looks like that's going to end up being the case again with this event. If I can go out and see snow falling, that's a win these days.
  7. John1122
    After the last three years it's basically don't trust a model if it is showing accumulating snow at any point. You'd be right 95 percent of the time doing just that.
  8. John1122
    That snow map has always been off. My dad always said that the snow was over the bumpers of cars during that event. So I think it underestimates totals almost across the board.
  9. John1122
    The Canadian just destroyed Arkansas and West Tennessee that run on wave 2. I imagine our western Valley folks would cash in on that 10-12 inch event for the whole winter.
  10. John1122
    Here you go.
  11. John1122
    My leaves have been gone for weeks. Most of them besides Oak and black gum were gone before Halloween. I was surprised a couple weekends ago when it was still full fall on the ETSU campus and surrounding areas.
  12. John1122
    The ICON only goes out to 120 hours at 18z and it looks like Tennessee would be under the comma head from the system. It's pouring snow on the Plateau/Eastern Rim as the LP is moving across NC at the end of the run. We finally saw a rain to accumulating snow event work out last December. They had been common for most of my life before the 2000s but have gotten rare since.
  13. John1122
    It's a tough one for MRX, as much of the modeling is showing significant accumulation differences in the central/south valley areas with the Euro going in for even the valley area and the Canadian and GFS showing the classic valley wedge from Chattanooga to Knoxville.
  14. John1122
    The Canadian Ens are just beefy for the next two weeks outside of far western areas. Really big for the mid-state and east areas, Kentucky and SWVA.
  15. John1122
    If we can pull this off, we are seeing the power of the Pacific blocking and how important it is for winter weather here. It's really really tough to get anything without it. But when we get it and it's oriented correctly, look out. Eric Webb earlier said it looked like a typhoon was trying to form in the Western Pacific in an area that would potentially prolong the +PNA pattern we are looking at now. The Euro also extended the snow shield westward that run, creeping it closer to the Mississippi. Plenty of potential from that suppressed following wave too.
  16. John1122
    12z modeling suite so far features a definite southward trend away from cutters. If we keep it up we might end up with a slider/Miller A. The Canadian mauls the mid-state.
  17. John1122
    The Euro bombs out an Apps runner that retrogrades a bit to the NW. It was kind to the Eastern 2/3rds of the valley with wrap around snow, unfortunately not for the western areas that run. It almost followed the grand divisions in the state. It has a second system that's a Miller A running just east of the Apps that sees rain to snow in the higher elevations of the Plateau and Mountains. The Euro pops a massive -NAO later in the run too. Lots of storms in the pipeline, some cold air but it's not extremely cold, as is often the case this early in winter season. Still with very low sun angle and very short days this time of year, it can work out pretty well for us. All that of course could change. The first storm and it's behavior will heavily influence what happens behind it, and if we get the blocking as advertised we could have some very good times for the next two weeks or so.
  18. John1122
    The 00z GFS is so weird I posted about it in banter. The low cuts into the block, then gets stuck and goes from Michigan to Illinois to West Virginia to Pennsylvania back to Michigan. Then it sits in SE Ontario for a while before getting kicked north.
  19. John1122
    This is a new standard for bizarre. Don't think I've ever seen the southern edge of a storm be snow while its raining to to the north and northwest.
  20. John1122
    Interesting tweet from Ventrice today. He said a Siberian stratospheric warming event was shaping up for week 2. The 7 day lag map he posted feature major blocking in Eastern Canada and BN heights nearly nationwide. Some of the biggest height anomalies in the lower 48 were based in the South and Southeast.
  21. John1122
    18z GFS cuts to Indiana and Ohio and does a loop. Indiana gets buried. A few snow bands would possibly up somewhere in parts of our forum region with it, but overall not our best look by any means. Modeling is coming into agreement today with the low being on our side of the mountains. Unfortunate if it sticks that way, as our path to snow becomes a less conventional one.
  22. John1122
    The PNA is very very positive all the way through December 9th, the SE ridge looks like it might come back towards mid-month per Eric Webb, which would lead to possibly icy solutions in that environment.
  23. John1122
    Another Apps runner on the Euro at the end of the run. Too much S/SW flow ahead of it to produce frozen outside of Arkansas initially. The back size frozen eventually works it's way into Tennessee but I've rarely seen the backside stuff work out very well but if it moves due north or even slightly NW it could cause wrap around snow down into our backyard. The Great Appalachian snow storm in 1950 happened when a massive block over Eastern Canada forced a storm to move west. There's plenty of blocking in the NE on the 12z Euro at 240. Just not a ton of cold air. The 1950 system was brutally cold.
  24. John1122
    The Euro slows the wave in the SW, which is one of it's classic biases at this range. We will see in the next few days if it keeps that up. Right now I'd say we are going to have a system for sure but I could see it anywhere from the central Carolinas to Memphis as it turns north.
  25. John1122
    It amps up faster on the UKIE and turns north faster because of it.
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