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John1122

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  1. John1122
    It's a tough one for MRX, as much of the modeling is showing significant accumulation differences in the central/south valley areas with the Euro going in for even the valley area and the Canadian and GFS showing the classic valley wedge from Chattanooga to Knoxville.
  2. John1122
    The Canadian Ens are just beefy for the next two weeks outside of far western areas. Really big for the mid-state and east areas, Kentucky and SWVA.
  3. John1122
    If we can pull this off, we are seeing the power of the Pacific blocking and how important it is for winter weather here. It's really really tough to get anything without it. But when we get it and it's oriented correctly, look out. Eric Webb earlier said it looked like a typhoon was trying to form in the Western Pacific in an area that would potentially prolong the +PNA pattern we are looking at now. The Euro also extended the snow shield westward that run, creeping it closer to the Mississippi. Plenty of potential from that suppressed following wave too.
  4. John1122
    12z modeling suite so far features a definite southward trend away from cutters. If we keep it up we might end up with a slider/Miller A. The Canadian mauls the mid-state.
  5. John1122
    The Euro bombs out an Apps runner that retrogrades a bit to the NW. It was kind to the Eastern 2/3rds of the valley with wrap around snow, unfortunately not for the western areas that run. It almost followed the grand divisions in the state. It has a second system that's a Miller A running just east of the Apps that sees rain to snow in the higher elevations of the Plateau and Mountains. The Euro pops a massive -NAO later in the run too. Lots of storms in the pipeline, some cold air but it's not extremely cold, as is often the case this early in winter season. Still with very low sun angle and very short days this time of year, it can work out pretty well for us. All that of course could change. The first storm and it's behavior will heavily influence what happens behind it, and if we get the blocking as advertised we could have some very good times for the next two weeks or so.
  6. John1122
    The 00z GFS is so weird I posted about it in banter. The low cuts into the block, then gets stuck and goes from Michigan to Illinois to West Virginia to Pennsylvania back to Michigan. Then it sits in SE Ontario for a while before getting kicked north.
  7. John1122
    This is a new standard for bizarre. Don't think I've ever seen the southern edge of a storm be snow while its raining to to the north and northwest.
  8. John1122
    Interesting tweet from Ventrice today. He said a Siberian stratospheric warming event was shaping up for week 2. The 7 day lag map he posted feature major blocking in Eastern Canada and BN heights nearly nationwide. Some of the biggest height anomalies in the lower 48 were based in the South and Southeast.
  9. John1122
    18z GFS cuts to Indiana and Ohio and does a loop. Indiana gets buried. A few snow bands would possibly up somewhere in parts of our forum region with it, but overall not our best look by any means. Modeling is coming into agreement today with the low being on our side of the mountains. Unfortunate if it sticks that way, as our path to snow becomes a less conventional one.
  10. John1122
    The PNA is very very positive all the way through December 9th, the SE ridge looks like it might come back towards mid-month per Eric Webb, which would lead to possibly icy solutions in that environment.
  11. John1122
    Another Apps runner on the Euro at the end of the run. Too much S/SW flow ahead of it to produce frozen outside of Arkansas initially. The back size frozen eventually works it's way into Tennessee but I've rarely seen the backside stuff work out very well but if it moves due north or even slightly NW it could cause wrap around snow down into our backyard. The Great Appalachian snow storm in 1950 happened when a massive block over Eastern Canada forced a storm to move west. There's plenty of blocking in the NE on the 12z Euro at 240. Just not a ton of cold air. The 1950 system was brutally cold.
  12. John1122
    The Euro slows the wave in the SW, which is one of it's classic biases at this range. We will see in the next few days if it keeps that up. Right now I'd say we are going to have a system for sure but I could see it anywhere from the central Carolinas to Memphis as it turns north.
  13. John1122
    It amps up faster on the UKIE and turns north faster because of it.
  14. John1122
    The pattern is good at this point and that's about the best we can hope for. Blocking over the top, cold air around, very low sun angle/short days this time of year, and systems working their way west to east.
  15. John1122
    Rick Barnes and the basketball team getting covid is the most 2020 kick to the UT fanbase there could be. Hopefully they are all okay, better yet, hopefully it was a false positive like we've seen before with some NFL teams.
  16. John1122
    The Euro has a storm in the same timeframe as the ICON that has more of an Apps runner look, it's wintry with snow/sleet in western areas of the Valley followed by upslope snow showers for the Plateau and Mountains.
  17. John1122
    The ICON has a snow event starting at 159-162 for the eastern half or so of the forum.
  18. John1122
    That one will be a big time clown map from about Murfreesboro east. Especially with snow sticking around Eastern areas another 36 hours after it starts. Looks like the Euro from earlier except the Euro was so suppressed only Eastern NC was hit.
  19. John1122
    It's shown some version of that for quite a few runs in a row. It just seems to grown the snow shield with each run. I guess it's technically possible or the model wouldn't simulate it. I'd probably say it's a 500:1 shot though.
  20. John1122
    12z Canadian was a bit warmer but still very cold with snowy weather across the Tennessee Valley and well down into the Deep South. The GFS is also very cold with the weird long duration snow event due to the storms rotating through as mentioned by AMZ where it's snowing from December 4th - 8th in at least some part of the Valley region. The Euro is seasonable transitioning to cold and suppressed with a snow/frozen event in the Eastern Carolinas with a massive cold 1050 hp and a storm gathering in Texas at the end of the run. It's quite a tease to say the least.
  21. John1122
    The Canadian went all in again and is stirring echoes of 1989. It has temperatures in the 10s on the Plateau and mountains in the afternoon on December 2nd. 20s elsewhere. Freezing weather and snow showers all the way into the deep south, 31 in northern Florida. In the period right after that the GFS went nuts and dropped 2 feet of snow in the Smokies, 6-10 inches on the northern Plateau and SEKY. Basically fantasy land stuff on that GFS run, but always fun to have winter weather back to talk about. Lets us get a look at model biases early and see if they hold up through winter.
  22. John1122
    The Euro upped the ante a bit for the d8-10 timeframe. Upslope and cold conditions with highs below freezing for a lot of us.
  23. John1122
    The Euro was an Apps runner, right over East Tennessee with some backside upslope snow showers to close out November.
  24. John1122
    The GFS d9/10 has a little Miller A action going after having a cutter earlier. It got our Kentucky areas and was close to more of us north of 40. The storm keeps showing up, but we will see if the GFS is up to its usual tricks. The Euro had some snow showers around in the same time frame at 12z.
  25. John1122
    We are hitting well into the window for December discussion. My best event of winter was on December 12th last year and I believe in 2019 it was a December event for the far Eastern areas. That was as the pattern of a very cold November bled into December. To get there this year we are going to have to count on the pattern to switch in December itself. Hints that it may, at least for a short time, as we head into the last few days of November and first week of December.
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