Jump to content

John1122

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    9,688

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    I can't imagine it will be quite as cold as yesterdays runs. I'm not sure what data the models were fed for them to come to such a similar outcome. Models are usually going to be a little more off from each other than the Euro/GFS were at that range. OP runs can produce some extremes and after day 5-6 looking at the ensembles will usually work better for seeing the pattern at 500.
  2. John1122
    Most of this snow comes from a system later, but the mid week system is a big ice producer this run from the Plateau and west. Sleet in central areas where the cold is deeper, to freezing rain along the plateau. The frozen line would probably be further south and east, the models very often struggle with Arctic air pushing into the area and try and keep it bottled up too far west.
  3. John1122
    Honestly, the Euro is too. Right now, it's even harder than normal to put much stock in when/where individual systems will come along on any model. They are hopefully pretty close on the pattern but the 0z op GFS took a big jump on that too, but the 0z run didn't have much support from it's ensembles, so I can see why it looks much more favorable for frozen this run vs that huge rainer all the way to southern Michigan at 0z.
  4. John1122
    The GFS is probably about where we want it, temp wise, at 06. Cold enough for frozen but not so cold we'd have to do Alaskan level prep for daily living.
  5. John1122
    It was the GFS I was looking at but somehow loaded the 18z run instead of the 06z run and thought at first it had bounced back to record cold. But the Euro does run 4x a day now, it just runs it's full length at 0z and 12z and runs out to around 90 or 120 hours on its 18z and 06z runs.
  6. John1122
    Edit: Never mind, was apparently looking at the 18z again. Still lots of frozen precip depicted on the 06z run. Just not the super cold again but still well below normal.
  7. John1122
    The FV3 builds a glacier west of the Plateau up through Kentucky. The midweek system just plasters that area on there.
  8. John1122
    Even though it evolved differently in the post 200hrs time frame, the GFS arrived here under 200hrs
  9. John1122
    Great run of the Canadian as noted. It's still snowing almost forum wide at 240 when this ends.
  10. John1122
    Yep, huge huge huge difference from 18 to 0z. Hilarious even. There's a 51 degree difference in temps in Indiana from 18z to 0z at 240. 30+ degree differences here.
  11. John1122
    If we see a giant H in the mid-west that brought the ice box, it's going to come later on this run than 18z. Unlikely to see the crazy snow or crazy snow amounts this time. Still probably looking at a solid 3-8 inches for most of the forum area through 240. There will be a lot of shifts with synoptic features, but as MRX said in their statement from this morning, the cold is coming and snow will be possible. How much and where TBD.
  12. John1122
    Small scale shifts on 00z with the midweek storm. North Central TN and South Central Ky fare best this run. Then a potent clipper swings by and pretty much drops moderate snow accumulations almost forum wide. It will almost have to be warmer than last run, but so far it's pretty similar to 18z through 210 hours.
  13. John1122
    This would be history making. Polar vortex is in Southern Ohio. These temps are noon/1pm.
  14. John1122
    GFS ratio'd snow for Wednesday. Crippling ice possible too. There could also be significant sleet in Central areas of Tennessee as well that aren't on either of these maps.
  15. John1122
    It was a great event, we had 20s for highs in advance of the storm. I was working on Douglas Lake at the time and can still remember driving home from work on a bright sunny day, cold, but blue skies, when the winter storm warnings went up. The next evening it started snowing and snowed at about 1-2 inches per hour for the next 12 hours. There was an especially heavy swath from Roane/Anderson/North Knox/Union/Jefferson of 18-24 inches. One of the guys I worked with was from Maynardville and he got 20 inches. That his on February 2nd. February 4th it was -20 here. So as you said, the snow stuck around for a while. That winter was just epic. There were snow piles here into March.
  16. John1122
    I didn't think I'd see another 30 inch snow map for my area on the Euro ever, but that's the second this winter. This one looks much more realistic given the pattern and 0 temp issues. 30 inch snow map and near 20 below zero. Similar to Feb 1996 when the area got 12-20 inches of snow and it was in that temp range.
  17. John1122
    3k NAM is very aggressive for wave one still per the 06z run. At 0z the area of heavy snow was over NW Tn. Will have to see if other models begin to see this level of action or if it's just the 3k towards the end of it's range being a little too aggressive.
  18. John1122
    Ratio'd maps you can add 2-6 inches to those totals through 240.
  19. John1122
    Different view with more of our forum in it.
  20. John1122
    Midweek storm. 240 total.
  21. John1122
    Also, that's the non-ratio version of the snow potential. Some of it would be higher ratio due to some very cold temps.
  22. John1122
    The Euro follows that system with a quick clipper, and then another miller A at day 9 into 10. 240 hour totals say 1-3 inches fall over west Tennessee, 3-5 over western middle Tennessee, 8-10 over northern and eastern middle Tn, and across Knoxville, the Southern Plateau and to just north of Chattanooga, 4-5 over Northern Alabama, Northeastern Ga to Chattanooga. 2-4 over Eastern Mississippi, and 2-4 into central Alabama. 14-18 over the Northern Plateau/SEKY. 10-12 over NE TN/SWVA. I'd take that run of the Euro and probably be close to satisfied for the entire winter season.
  23. John1122
    The Euro was a monster from the Plateau east with the midweek system. The FV3 hit Plateau and west towards Nashville. The GFS/FV3/UKIE/Euro are all very similar with the mid week system developing a wave and Tennessee being in the cold air for it. Euro was roughly 4 inches Eastern Middle. 8 inches central Plateau. 10-12 in my area into SEKY. 6-8 inches around Knoxville into NE TN/SW Va. 10+ in the mountains. 2-4 around Northern Alabama to Chattanooga, 1-2 around Nashville.
  24. John1122
    GFS has a similar solution next midweek to the FV3 earlier today. Stalled front with a low riding up east of the Apps, 2-5 inches basically east of the plateau, along and north of 40 that run. Also ice accumulations in the area. Overall cold but way warmer than some of the super cold runs the past few days. That's going to bounce around like all the long range operational model runs.
  25. John1122
    Gonna be bn precip (Jeff already noted this can be a good thing if we want snow) but we get this day 6-10 and 8-14. Plus I've already saw mets talking about how great weeks 3-4 look on the Weeklies this evening.
×
×
  • Create New...