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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    It turned sloppy and foggy here. Temps hanging in the 30s again. Third straight day the models were too warm here.
  2. John1122
    Healthy mean on the EPS again. 2-6 inches across the forum area with some isolated 6-8 inch ares in the SEKY/SWVA/Mountains. Pretty good for an average of 50 members.
  3. John1122
    It's just according to which run the past couple of days you've looked at. At one point it was showing 2-4 inches over SW Tennessee. Last night it was 2-3 inches in NWTn. So definitelya downward trend in snowfall for western areas. I'm sure 0z will have its own look too.
  4. John1122
    This is from around the time they decided to call off school this morning.
  5. John1122
    CFSV2 has Pac ridge/eastern trough all the way through the end of February. You have to think at some point we manage to score a good winter event for the forum area, possibly more than one.
  6. John1122
    FV3 ratio'd map. This will likely change multiple times, but most modeling over the last 12-24 hours have had a variation of this, some with more ice, some with less snow, but the orientation of the frozen precip has remained similar. Lots of moving pieces of energy plus major cold potentially invading. Models will struggle, probably more than normal, over the next little while. That's why we see occasionally big swings in temps from model run to model run. All about timing, just have to hope for the best.
  7. John1122
    Had another burst of heavy snow, looks like it's about to pass on by after this. MRX had initially forecast this might happen but had backed off, I think one run or two I saw of the RGEM showed it, the NAM if I recall showed it in SWVA and extreme NETN. I'd guess an inch of snow fell, but due to mixing issues I seemed to have peaked at 1/2 inch or so of ground coverage. TDOT had to deal with issues on I-75 and schools dismissed. Probably could have ridden it out on schools, as I don't expect any issues at all this afternoon.
  8. John1122
    Heavy wet snow here after a burst of sleet. Silver Dollar sized flakes at times, around 1/2 inch accumulation. Mixing with rain at times. 33 degrees.
  9. John1122
    The Euro joined in to some extent. Now the Euro/GEM/GFS/FV3 all have the rain to frozen with undercutting arctic air next week. It marches all the way across the forum area basically and the frozen is all the way down to the gulf coast. That's when you know it's potent arctic air. In the short term, the Euro, along with other models, are giving 1-3 inches of backside snow Sunday morning basically along 40 from just north of Memphis to Knoxville.
  10. John1122
    Canadian and FV3 are also wintry. Wave on an arctic front is a classic way to get winter weather on this side of the Apps.
  11. John1122
    Great looking 00z run of the GFS if you like cold and winter precip. A good bit of it happens within 10 days at this point. Not sure which will work, if any, for us, but the possibilities are looking better and better.
  12. John1122
    I read the forecasts from Mt Olympus or Mt Rainier sometimes. They will have a week straight of 2-3 feet of snow per day with high winds at times. Amazing what going up 2 miles from the surface of the earth brings. Also, 18z is very interesting for our region. Undercutting frigid air bringing wintry weather with both ice and snow and the cold blast that follows has snow well into Florida, not sure I've seen that on a weather model before. Snows over most of the Florida panhandle.
  13. John1122
    The OP runs are slowly starting to show more snow falling with the next couple of systems. The Canadian is all in from the deep south up across the Eastern half of the Valley for the day 8 or so system. It may be that we have to be within 3-4 days to get details to come into focus. Otherwise, ensembles remain cold with precip signals staying pretty decent. The pattern has flipped, we are still working on the full transition but other than a brief semi-warm up things still look on track for a cold base pattern.
  14. John1122
    Keep in mind that it takes 14-16 days for the MJOs effects to be felt downstream in the Eastern US. But other factors override it at times. Especially blocking in the Pacific. There's a paper about the MVP (Multi-variable PNA) that I read. It indicated that the MVP completely mutes the effects of the MJO on North America at times, regardless of which phase the MJO is in at a given time. A few years ago it moved at fairly high amplitude through 8, 1, 2 and I was hoping for a return to cold in two weeks. No such luck, the PNA region remained unfavorable and we stayed warm. This from that paper, regarding the effects of the MJO on NA in relation to a + or - MVP. In other words, unless the PNA is positive 8, 1, 2 don't bring cold here. Unless it's negative 2, 5 don't bring warmth.
  15. John1122
    The GEFS is just extremely cold. 12 to 20 degrees below normal temps basically from day 6-16 and these departures are coming at the coldest time of winter. That would equate to 10s and 20s for highs and lows near or below 0 in our forum area. For a 5 day average on an ensemble mean, that's very very impressively cold. I am getting concerned that we will go into suppression city. A lot of the analogs showing up at 500 from D10-16 were ones that produced deep South snows and left us high and dry. There is a lot of energy, all taking wildly varying tracks right now. One day the GFS has the southern stream storm and gives us frozen, another has a miller A but it's too warm, another is a miller B, another cuts, and we have also gotten northern stream domination with a parade of clippers. That's how many different solutions are on the table over the 7-16 day time frame. The OP will roll up each of these scenarios at different runs over the coming days. I'd honestly expect more northern stream/clippers to be possible in this set up.
  16. John1122
    Temp hovered around 33 this afternoon. Above 2000 feet there was about 1/2 inch of snow and a lot of frozen fog this morning. Overall a cold, grey day today with the ceiling around 2800 feet.
  17. John1122
    The Euro laughed at the GFS and pushed rain into Toronto, Canada that run. OP of the models are not in any form of agreement with their ensembles. I guess there's too much chaos going on right now for anything close to stable modeling.
  18. John1122
    GFS took its miller A monster from 18z, sped it up and warmed it up. Rainer that run even with a perfect Miller A track. Eventually the pattern/storm track will shake out but a storm with that track and plenty of cold on this side of the country should not be a rain event up to the Ohio River.
  19. John1122
    Right now we have the EPS/GEFS/Weeklies showing winter in the heart of winter. We rarely ever manage to pull that look off. A few years ago we had a very snowy/cold stretch but even that one happened more from February 15th-March 10th or so. Last year we had it in March and April. I was in 2 inches of snow here on April 18th. We are basically looking at the potential for those types of patterns but in prime time. Hopefully we can cash it in. I've not been looking at specific features today, but David Aldrich showed a model run for next weekends system that spit out 2-4 inches in the area. No idea if it was the GFS/GEM/Euro. Either way it's the precursor to the first shot of Arctic air. After that we just get colder and colder. These wild temps showed up in 2015 in the day 14-16 range while we were having a mild January. Seemed incredible at the time but we got big winter events and well below 0 cold with single digit afternoon temps during that stretch when it finally got here.
  20. John1122
    Steady light snow falling since dark. Tiny flakes about half the diameter of a dime, but quite a few in the air. Temp held steady at 34 all afternoon, down to 32 now.
  21. John1122
    Hadn't been out today, walked out to it's snowing.
  22. John1122
    The EPS sets up the triple play, Pacific blocking, -NAO/-AO.
  23. John1122
    GFS is a cutter/miller B parade. Warms up, rains, very cold, rinse and repeat. Actually happened just like that in I believe December of 1982. Rain and then below 0 temps, then back to rain again. Not saying that's going to happen here but it's happened before and the GFS is throwing it out there, so it's possible.
  24. John1122
    I can see why it's showing up. If what FV3 especially is throwing out there actually happens both at the surface and at 500, widespread subzero is likely into the upper south.
  25. John1122
    Those are actually yesterdays, I always forget that hotlinking those always gives weird results. But the entire valley is BN 6-10 and 8-14.
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