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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    The Christmas time frame has shown up on the GFS a few times too. Looked like anafrontal snow showers. Oddly those have produced two years in a row for me now when not much else has.
  2. John1122
    Looks like a decent amount of snow above 2800 feet or so. The entire top several hundred feet of Cross mountain is nicely white.
  3. John1122
    I saw someone mention that there was another mountain torque event about to happen in east Asia and that the first is what led to the +PNA after Thanksgiving into early December that brought snow and cold to the area. Hopefully that comes to pass. If we can get the PNA to cooperate in late December vs late November those snow chances should become much more widespread and less elevation dependent. Some modeling also that the TPV gets shunted down towards East central Canada and delivers Siberian cold just up stream. Once you start seeing those -20s and -30s heading for the border you have some better source air nearby. We pulled off snow in parts of the area in late November and those areas were in the upper 20s above zero.
  4. John1122
    It would he hard to complain about the start of winter imby. The first two weeks I've gotten 3 inches of snow. Two other days have seen snow falling and there's ice/snow in my forecast in the next 48 hours. The question becomes is this a one off like the last couple of years where winter peaked in December then went away, or is it a 95-96/09-10/10-11 where winter started early in December and just kept coming back until mid February? I'll say for here, the December events of the last two years were basically one offs that led into abrupt pattern shifts to unrelenting warmth. This has been multiple wintry events and the pattern looks very favorable again in another week or so after this.
  5. John1122
    Had a switch over this morning that didn't amount to anything on the ground really. Not checked above 3000 feet. There was no accumulation at 2500 though it could have melted off.
  6. John1122
    37 degrees and just blitzing rain. Looks like there's been some embedded snow in areas out to the west but not super wide spread. There's a small area near Montacello Kentucky where some blue is showing up. Byrdstown just Southwest of Montacello in Tn is down to 34 but ptype says heavy rain there still currently.
  7. John1122
    42 degrees and the rain is actually starting to fall steadily. If I change over I expect it to be after 5am.
  8. John1122
    It may be wrong but the Euro has been locked in here for a good number of runs in a row.
  9. John1122
    The Euro isn't as aggressive as the short range hi res models for western areas but it was better than 12z for middle Valley and Plateau/SEKy areas.
  10. John1122
    Pulling for you and Kevin, as well as our mid valley guys.
  11. John1122
    As we get closer in the snow shield has expanded across Arkansas and now across West Tennessee on the hi-res models. Hopefully it expands state wide. If so it will look like the good Euro run from about 5 days ago.
  12. John1122
    Sunday night into Monday.
  13. John1122
    I have a friend who lives at the base of the mountain there and he literally gets about half the precip I do a year.
  14. John1122
    12k NAM isn't far off from the 3k, it just doesn't handle the dynamic precip areas as finely as the 3k. Will have to see if they are just NAMing but it's been a big shift towards winter weather over the last two days.
  15. John1122
    Ends up here. Would be a true paste job on trees and powerlines. Comes at a good time of day.
  16. John1122
    That purple in the deep blue is some 40dbz+ snow.
  17. John1122
    3k NAM is rolling in hot for the west and mid Valley.
  18. John1122
    I'm skeptical too. I guess it's rate driven and that's allowing it to get below 3000 feet and stay snow on the Euro.
  19. John1122
    Its dumping right on my head right there. It's insistent on that happening for multiple runs in a row.
  20. John1122
    Euro was similar to the GFS/NAM and it's 12z run with snow over the Plateau/SEKY and even a bit of unelevated Middle Tennessee. Also shows wave two beginning as frozen at times across the area before changing to rain.
  21. John1122
    Sounding on the 3k when snow breaks out here. It was showing near 40 on the regular NAM yesterday.
  22. John1122
    3k NAM hits the Plateau and SE Kentucky pretty decently. Probably cut the snow maps in half with probably 5 or 6:1 ratios at best.
  23. John1122
    GFS moved a little towards the Euro for my back yard. Probably more elevated than my actual back yard. The global models tend to paint a little too broad with their snow output maps. But it does appear likely rate driven dynamically cooled snow falling. Has a dollop of 6 inches a few miles away.
  24. John1122
    The 12z Euro looked like an early December 2009 paste job here that put down 8 inches of heavy wet cement overhead while it rained north, south, east and west of here. For whatever reason this county was just in the perfect spot in the storm and it dropped silver dollars for 5 straight hours. It was mixed slush about 15 miles away in Scott and Whitley County Kentucky but just hammered here.
  25. John1122
    Looks like the 18z American models are having issues. My friend has a few acres for sale at 2900 feet. So tempted to move but I'd have to sacrifice things like reliable internet and you know, build a new house plus convince my family moving to fulfill my snow obsession is a good idea when I can drive to 2900 feet in 5 minutes or so. It would probably double my snowfall yearly though. That extra 1200 feet makes a huge difference. I think that area here will probably get several inches of snow out of one or both systems next week. I believe the snow level was down to 2660 feet on a sounding I looked at that showed rain here during the overnight runs. I don't think there's any private land above 3000 feet here anywhere. The government owns it all in some form or another be it WMA, State Park or the Air Force I think owning the 3500+ land on Cross Mountain. The top there averages about 55 inches of snow a year.
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