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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    Really crisp this morning. 43 degrees, got down to 65 in my house. Nearly turned on the heat.
  2. John1122
    Odds of seeing it in winter .008 percent but it sure would be beautiful. Gonna be tough to beat the weather this weekend. 60s and 40s, should really help the leaves here.
  3. John1122
    Dripping fall out there. 64 for the high yesterday and 65 so far today.
  4. John1122
    Last time we had such an active tropical season in 2005, we were basically normal for October and November, slightly BN for December, January was an unrepentant blow-torch that finished +7. February was 3 degrees BN and I had 7 inches of snow during the month. January will probably match this year with how our luck has gone. Not sure if the others will or not. That September was much drier and much hotter than this one has been so far. It didn't rain at all until September 15th. It was 4 degrees AN with 7 days in the 90s. We haven't been above 87 this month here and it's rained some. September 2005 didn't see a day in the 40s until the last day of the month. We should get there this weekend.
  5. John1122
    Looks like we may dodge the hurricane rains for the most part. I know MRX was initially showing 2 to 3 inches across the area. I'm actually running BN for the month with only 1.3 inches. Creeks and streams are still over full but it feels almost strange to be getting so many dry days, even though it did rain this weekend. MRX also has my highs in the upper 60s late this week. That will feel awesome Friday night after last Friday's humidityfest at Seymour.
  6. John1122
    It was miserable in Seymour yesterday evening at the football game. I hope that was the last blistering Friday night of the season.
  7. John1122
    That would be great news if the H would form there and orient itself right. The Pacific really can drive the bus here in otherwise unfavorable NAO/AO conditions. I would really love to see the stars align and see us get a favorable period with the Pacific and the Atlantic. It surely will happen again at some point before the earth stops spinning.
  8. John1122

    ENSO

    John1122 replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    Hey Jax, praying for you and your family. Appreciate reading your stuff here. Your ENSO, severe and East Asian stuff bring a lot to the board that I honestly never knew before. Hope all goes well for you guys over the next few weeks and months.
  9. John1122
    Feels awesome this evening. Walked 3 miles between 6 and 7 pm and didn't even break a sweat out there. Temp has already fallen off to 65 degrees. May make a run at lower 50s by morning.
  10. John1122
    Day 3, more rain. .52 so far today. .77 for September.
  11. John1122
    Showers nearby have the temperature here at 84 degrees but the humidity is 82 percent. That 78 degree dewpoint has the feels like temperature near 100. Feels like the gulf coast outside. Bring on the cold front!
  12. John1122
    The big cold front still seems to be a go per the GFS. It's very impressive, looks like next Wednesday daytime highs will be in the 50s in the western 2/3rds of the valley if the GFS isn't too cold right now. GFS is throwing out lower 40s along the Plateau next Thursday morning.
  13. John1122
    Not surprisingly, it rained on day one of fall and there looks to be some rain about to move in right now for day two.
  14. John1122
    Last year the first temps in the 40s imby happened September 25th. There's a good shot this year they arrive more than two weeks earlier than that this year. Last year after those first two nights in the 40s it was another two weeks before they came back. Through the first 40 days of meteorological fall last year (Sept 1-Oct 10) we had more than 3 times as many days in the 90s (7) than nights in the 40s (2). Normally the highs fall from around 81 to around 70 and lows from the upper 50s to around 50 during that time frame. I'm all in for getting to enjoy high school football in good weather. So far its rained and been extremely humid the first two games and looks to rain again next Friday. Game 4 should be great football weather though.
  15. John1122
    Tomorrow is day 1 of meteorological fall so I fired up the cool/cold season general obs thread. Hopefully we get plenty of use for storm specific obs threads this winter.
  16. John1122
    Most showers have avoided me for a change the last day and a half. Only .15 so far from them. 9.79 for the month. We will see if another manages to move over before midnight. Still an extremely rainy summer with no signs of a flash drought heatwave like last fall. I'm on track for well over 80 inches of rain this year, which would be a calendar year record. I am already over 80 in the last 365 days. Unless we pick up more rain this evening, this will be my last post in the spring/summer 2020 obs thread. About to start a fall/winter obs thread.
  17. John1122
    Went to a movie in Knox and returned to .21 in my rain gauge. Apparently some rain did hit my area at some point during the evening though it looked as if it wasn't going to on radar before I went into the movie. 9.64 for August. Judging by the current forecast for tomorrow and Monday, I should cross 10 inches again this month.
  18. John1122
    .92 from Laura. So not quite as much as expected for a change. Line of storms broke apart and looks to miss me to the east and west this evening. 9.43 for August with two days to go.
  19. John1122
    Looks like west and central valley areas have gotten some rowdy weather from this thing so far. Having a very gusty but light shower right now near Lafollette. Was hoping it would arrive after high school football but looks like it will arrive here in earnest around kick off.
  20. John1122
    Been seeing reds and yellows here. Saw some yellow leaves drifting off my walnut tree today.
  21. John1122
    No idea how my post ended up formatted so oddly. Is the right front quadrant still a key location when a storm turns like this?
  22. John1122
    It appears to be very healthy still in Arkansas. Still has 65 mph sustained winds. I am surprised NW Tennessee isn't forecast to get more than 2-4 inches of rain with it taking 12 hours to cross from NE Arkansas to just east of Clarksville. That little area of SW Kentucky is in the red flash flooding bullseye though. After that it gets caught in the westerlies and will start booking it out of our region. Looks like Memphis is about to get it's first few showers and some pretty strong storms in a feeder band off the Gulf are headed north through Alabama.
  23. John1122
    Only had .08 Monday and it's been sunny today with the rain set up along 40 and south. The hurricane path will probably determine if I go over 10 inches again this month.
  24. John1122
    Found the scholarly article about hurricane paths last night. Even at 2 days out tracks were almost always too far west with systems in the Gulf of Mexico. The article did note that the more powerful the land falling storm that more likely it was to be within 75 miles of the forecast center track from day 2 at landfall. Hurricane Michael, which was a cat 5 ended up only being about 65 miles East of the day 2 center track. Cat 2 and lower were normally over 100 miles East at land fall vs the day 2 track. Some with tracks similar to Laura ended up moving into the coast around Mobile to Panama City. So even with all the guidance taking Laura in at the Texas/Louisiana border and heading into Arkansas, I won't be surprised if it never makes it that far West and it ends up heading more towards West Tennessee.
  25. John1122
    I always love seeing the first Rocky Mountain snow storms showing up. I'll never forget that the same time Hurricane Andrew was hitting that Montana and Wyoming were getting a snow storm. Winter starts really early in the Northern Rockies. I do wonder how much valley impacts the hurricanes this week will bring. The track of Laura seems to be trending west but I remember seeing somewhere that models have a western bias when dealing with tropical systems in the Gulf. I think it was something like 100-150 miles from D 5. Either way it looks like high school football may have to deal with the remnants from the right/rainy side of the track as it gets absorbed into the trough.
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