Jump to content

John1122

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    10,907

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    The NAM is almost the same on it's features for the past 8 runs, but the difference is it doesn't bring the cold air in nearly as fast the last couple of runs. Yesterday's 06z run the changeover line was about 100 miles East of where it is on todays at 1pm Thursday. So where I was getting heavy snow by then with a LP just across the mountain from Greene County, I'm now getting heavy rain with a low in the same spot. That greatly affects snow totals, basically cutting them in half. 1pm Friday on the 06z from 24 hours ago vs 1pm Friday on the 06z that just ran.
  2. John1122
    Basic synopsis: Euro/UKIE furthest east. But the Euro is better for all of the Eastern valley as a whole than the GFS. GFS/NAM/HRRR not as much moisture return. Better for eastern middle Tennessee HRRR and Gfs/NAM far NE areas but not as good as the Euro for Knoxville and south down the 75 corridor. GGem/RGem would be our new best friend if they verify. Big winter storm for the eastern 2/3rds of the forum area.
  3. John1122
    Euro was better for say Knoxville than the GFS. Slower with the cold by a bit and doesn't have the back side energy like the other models. Could be because it's further East with the frontal lp.
  4. John1122
    Euro popped the low a bit earlier. Gonna be big for NE areas most likely. It's on the east side of guidance right now though which is not a common place for it to be.
  5. John1122
    The Canadian just slams the eastern half of the state as Carvers noted. Absolute best case scenario stuff here.
  6. John1122
    Slightly worse than 18z on the GFS. Day before yesterday all the American models had a bad trend and it bounced back, possibly will again or maybe it will get worse. I'd guess we will see changes all the way up until 12z or 18z tomorrow. Maybe even later.
  7. John1122
    Still snowing at hour 60 in parts of the area on the RGEM.
  8. John1122
    RGEM is even further West it looks like. It runs the low entirely up this side of the Apps. Better for Mid state for sure.
  9. John1122
    HRRR really blasts the southern Plateau and eastern middle. But seems to hang the cold up on the Plateau. Granted it's all happening outside the normal wheelhouse for the HRRR.
  10. John1122
    The 3k 00z actually evolved very similarly to the 18z regular NAM. Low from Central Alabama to SWVA to WVA. No strange Ohio low.
  11. John1122
    The panel that throws things off on the NAM vs 18z is the panel that pops a low briefly in Ohio. That same panel at 18z had the low in SWVA and it was snowing hard over the Eastern half of the state. The panels prior and just after are virtually no different than 18z.
  12. John1122
    Honestly the NAM looks basically the same as it did at 18z. Just less aggressive on the backside with precip this run.
  13. John1122
    The NAM is a little drunk. 996 lp in Ohio at 42, 993 in WVA at 48.
  14. John1122
    Did the SREF have a late blooming low? I would guess we will see ups and downs over the next 24 hours.
  15. John1122
    The RGEM has scored several wins before, usually related to northern stream events. These anafrontal low spin ups are rare these days but used to be a common way to get 3 to 5 inches imby.
  16. John1122
    After looking I think the MRX grids were likely generated off the 48hr 18z HRRR. That is definitely the inhouse model I just saw WVLT run. It was literally the exact depiction from the HRRR for Thursday. Which suggests very little in the way of snow but the HRRR at 48 is like looking at the GFS at 300.
  17. John1122
    GFS backed down a bit from 12z. Runs will vary from here on out, especially as they are about to leave the global wheelhouse and be more in line with the meso model time frame.
  18. John1122
    The point forecast at 2500 feet here says less than 1/2 inch of snow possible. For downtown Knoxville it says less than 1 inch possible. No idea how they are seeing the grids unless it's a UKIE/Euro blend.
  19. John1122
    I'd guess tomorrow morning if the models don't lose it, they will issue winter products for the mountains and SWVA. SPS for other areas. I got 4 inches in 4 hours last December and never even got a WWA. Knox got at least 2 and didn't either. They are always very reluctant with WWP outside the mountains and it often works out for them but sometimes doesn't.
  20. John1122
    Looks like they are still rolling exclusively with the Euro/UKIE.
  21. John1122
    I don't remember if we've had one in the last several years. The models have had multiple upgrades since then so I'm not sure how they may handle it now.
  22. John1122
    I wish you guys were in on it too. The pattern at least looks loaded and we may have another thread in a few days.
  23. John1122
    Final RGEM total. as the snow finally leaves the area around 8pm Christmas evening on it.
  24. John1122
    That's the fingers! The models won't place them in the same area two runs in a row but totals will be heavier under them.
  25. John1122
    Still snowing over the area at this point.
×
×
  • Create New...