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John1122

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  1. John1122
    My grandpa used to say "Thunder in February means we will freeze in April." Will have to see if that one comes to pass.
  2. John1122
    This was the 4th or 5th time since December.
  3. John1122
    Lots of thunder here and flooding is pretty bad but nothing severe. I've had about as many days of thunder this winter as I have had frozen falling now.
  4. John1122
    The FV3 is around the Euro verification scores at 500. It's just not good with snow and it's got a cold bias when it goes cold.
  5. John1122
    The FV3 returns record setting cold to the midwest and moderate cold here. The extreme warmth pattern breaks after Friday and doesn't really return the rest of the run, it just gets colder and colder as we get deeper into February. Not as cold as a couple of years ago, but still very much below normal.
  6. John1122
    In 1993 the first half of February was warm, near record highs in the mid 60s around the 8th/9th. Cooled off by Valentines day and finally by the 25th is actually snowed. January 1993 was a relentless blowtorch that finished +6, so it was way warmer than the January we just finished.
  7. John1122
    This is the result of that broad trough that develops on the EPS in about a week.
  8. John1122
    Indicators that the 12th-20th or so might be a return to a favorable window for winter weather. No guarantee that it will actually happen or that if the 500mb pattern/mjo get into a good place that it will mean anything wintry falls from the sky either. But the Pacific/EPO region should become more favorable and we might get more favorable results downstream from it. The OPs are, as always, struggling with things but in this case, for the most part as we move closer in time they have looked more favorable. The FV3 went from a western trough to an eastern trough over a 4 day model evolution as it reels things in from the day 15 to day 10 range. The EPS develops cross-polar flow with a -EPO by day 10 and broad nationwide trough. The GEFS has all of Canada very cold, the SE ridge fights things here but it's losing towards the end of the run. Winter of 1993 was not dissimilar to this one, we got no snow of significant note until the last week of February when 4-5 inches finally fell. I don't think a blizzard would come to pass after it like 1993, but I do feel like we're going to flip back to cold in March, even if it's a wet cold instead of a white one.
  9. John1122
    Saw a met from another forum saying that the ENSO state and a few other factors are beginning to look better for severe in the Plains this spring but not so much for the TN Valley/Southeast. I can live without severe here personally but can see why people like to track/chase storms. Not much we can do to prevent weather of any kind but we can learn more about it.
  10. John1122
    They've died here for sure. I used to get at least a few inches a year off Lake Michigan. Not lately. Nothing to speak of from clippers the last few years either. Which is especially strange because we've had a lot of northern stream influence the last two winters. It's just been dry. I think it's been probably 4 years since there was a winter time Alberta Clipper, maybe longer. Gone are the days of the Siberian Express too. Holston, as a side note, your posts and looks at pathways to the positive are very well done and I enjoy them. The winter has not been enjoyable after looking so promising, but the law of averages and the way things have been going the last decade, I should have another 25-40 inch winter in the next few years.
  11. John1122
    Probably the toughest aspect of this winter is that we entered January with what seemed to be great players on the field heading into the most favored period of winter for Jan 15th-Feb 15th. Through all of that I managed about 6 cold days and 1/2 inch of snow after the ensembles of every model kept spitting out 3-6+ inches valley wide for several 15 day periods. It's hard to believe that that many members missed everything that often. These days I have a go big winter or a go home winter imby. I pretty much go over 20 inches or stay under 8 with no in between. For the balance of my life there was a 4 inch snow at minimum every single winter. This looks likely to be the 3rd in a row without one. I did have a 4 inch event last year but it was in late March when winter was over. The year before I barely managed more than 4 inches the entire winter, literally the lowest total here, possibly ever but for sure in the last 70+ years. The two winters before that I was around 30 inches and a lot of ice. The 1990s were this way to a large extent. Except there wasn't a winter in the 1990s that I didn't get at least 4 inches in a single event. Carvers mentioned this Nino reminded him of the 90s Ninos. The entire decade reminds me of them. Super strong Ninos both decades. A few frigid snowy winters and several warm wet ones. Most of the time I feel like I've moved 150 miles south of where I lived in the 1970s and 1980s.
  12. John1122
    I'm not sure what the new normals may be these days, especially regarding January, where winter weather doesn't seem to occur in widespread fashion in our forum area any more. It's been a very harsh winter in parts of the country, but it's been decidedly average here with below average snowfall for almost all of us. The fact that so many elements that would normally make for a cold/snowy winter here were in place and it still didn't happen makes you wonder what the next few years will look like if things are not favorable for winter weather. One thing is for sure, using the past to see what may or should happen is probably at an all time low as far as it's usefulness.
  13. John1122
    The Pacific drives the bus far more than anything else, always have said that. Especially the EPO. If it's solidly negative we are cooking with gas, without it, we can't light a match at times. If we'd had great Pacific blocking the MJO doesn't really even matter very much. Without it, it still doesn't matter very much, if we get phase 8 and the Pacific isn't good it won't deliver cold. When the NAO/AO/PNA/EPO line up we get a winter blitz. But we can get great winter with just the PNA/EPO. Just the NAO/AO without the Pacific being right is just a tough proposition and less likely to produce wintry weather here. I'll stand by what I said a few days ago. I feel winter is effectively over. We many get a winter storm to track, but it won't be anything like what could have been. In most any other year having such a massive cold outbreak over Illinois/Minnesota etc would have produced an epic winter here. Not this year though. Nothing worked. Temps finished January at normal in Crossville. As I pointed out earlier this past fall any prior November that was that cold in Crossville (-5) as 2018 led to well BN January temps over the last 70 years. It worked out that way as recently as a couple of years ago. 70 percent of winters from Jackson, to Paducah to Bristol to Chattanooga to Huntsville produced well above average snow at all those locations Dec-Mar. So we are in very rare territory temp wise and snow wise this winter for most of the area. Especially from Clarksville to the Plateau/SEKY. Almost all of the winters that had such a cold November produced a major winter weather event over most all of the forum area as well from Dec-Mar. Nothing doing this year. Only SWVA/NE Tennessee had such an event.
  14. John1122
    There were a few around 2-4 am. I'm surprised you didn't get at least a few. It was literally only flurries through. Otherwise this has mostly been the winter of mud here and that looks to only get worse over the next 2 weeks. Unfortunately, this just isn't the winter for our area and it's basically the worst multi-year stretch in at least 90 years here and very likely way longer than that. That said, I'm going to do what I did in December and take some time away from weather/models etc. They are essentially pointless beyond 48 hours this year anyway. May or may not dive back in this winter, if I do it will more than likely be to report totals rather than track another storm that would likely fizzle to nothing 72 hours out.
  15. John1122
    I got 163 flakes and some freezing drizzle.
  16. John1122
    I'd say it's a 60/40 shot that winter is finished, to the extent that it ever started anywhere besides the far eastern areas. My biggest snow was in November before winter started. Wouldn't be surprised to have a warm February and get few wet snows in March. Not sure if it's climate change or what, but I don't think winter and I mean Dec-Jan-Feb has ever been this hostile to snow or frozen precip as it's been the last three years here. Hopefully I'm wrong but I'll have to look out the window and see snow on the ground before I believe it will change this winter.
  17. John1122
    Looks like central/Southern Miss into Alabama will do better than most or all of us. Crazy that two January's in a row they've smashed almost the entire Tennessee Valley as far as snow totals go. You probably wouldn't find that in back to back years if you went back 200 years.
  18. John1122
    Maybe we need the AO to flip positive. I was looking back at 2015 when we had the back loaded February that produced about 2 weeks of epic winter. During that year when the AO was negative we were warm, when it was positive we were frigid and snowy. It was 10 and -7 here on February 19th 2015 and the AO was +2.3. Of course the EPO was -200 to -300 during that stretch an it was running the show. It was also below -100 when we got cold in November and when the December snow storm hit this winter. It's the best thing we can have when we want winter temps and precip here at the same time. Not sure where it is now or it's forecast. It would be nice if it was able to return though.
  19. John1122
    I see it like this, if one wishes to see certain content, they should work on posting it too.
  20. John1122
    We are in the worst stretch of back to back to back winters I've ever witnessed. Last year it didn't start snowing until spring. So winter last year was awful. The year before that I had something like 4.5 inches of snow, the lowest I've ever seen here. At 6.5 this year, it's among the worst. The last time the entire forum area had significant winter storms in January may be 2010.
  21. John1122
    Not sure if it will amount to much, but the NWS now has a 50 percent chance of snow here Sat night - Sunday night, possibly switching to rain during Saturday afternoon. Will see if it happens. The models were really over amping this period 3-5 days out. The threat for Tuesday feels more real but I'm always skittish until the snow starts falling.
  22. John1122
    That's as good a forum wide event as we have had in a while if it were to verify. Outside of the far far NW areas everyone sees 3 inches minimum.
  23. John1122
  24. John1122
    There will always be different areas of heavier snow from run to run, the front looks to plow through the entire state like a living defender going against Tennessee's offensive line last year. I'd say smooth everything into a 2-4 inch window and expect there to be some higher areas, if this thing doesn't go poof. The GFS didn't have much pre-frontal rain that run and the Euro had even less.
  25. John1122
    Strange map given the set up, that it doesn't include further west areas. The GFS is much much much warmer than the Euro for SB weekend. On Saturday at 12/1pm the GFS has my area at 46 degrees. The Euro has me at 13. Northern Georgia is 53 on the GFS, 22 on the Euro. Even more stark the next day, Sunday morning I'm at 35 on the GFS, -6 on the Euro. Sunday at 12/1pm my area is at 55 on the GFS, 15 on the Euro.
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