Jump to content

John1122

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    10,832

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    Not the GFS but this is way better than it's 12z clown map.
  2. John1122
    Canadian went a bit weird that run. Reminded me of the solution models were throwing out a few times in the early December storm. Much slower than the GFS and it snows basically all day Christmas day.
  3. John1122
    It often seems to be around but Eric Webb I believe swears it doesn't prevent southern snow storms at all.
  4. John1122
    There's been some super negative AO looks on the ensembles. Several guys like Ventrice have been talking about early January looking icy. Glad you know the East Asian stuff.
  5. John1122
    It will really depend on snow cover but I can't imagine highs will be above freezing even without it just based on what's being shown on models.
  6. John1122
    The cold that follows is one of the all time cold Christmas days. Wide spread single digits Christmas morning in the snow areas. Highs in the 10s and lower 20s, by 7pm Christmas evening already widespread temps in the 5 to 10 degree range. Unless SW flow aloft develops overnight into the 26ths, probably going to show up with some sub zero temps.
  7. John1122
    The GFS is sticking to it's guns on the change over thumper. Lost the idea of the clipper that follows unfortunately. Still a big run for most of the valley forum. I wish there was a way for the far western areas to be involved, and who knows, maybe there still will be. Long ways to go with this one, and we've seen so many great runs all the way up until nowcast time that folded.
  8. John1122
    EPS mean, while not on par with the GFS by any means, would still see a snowy Christmas eve. There are several big dogs and several complete misses on it, as one can expect from a 50 member run 5-6 days out from an event.
  9. John1122
    06z GFS looks good for all but the West valley with two rounds of snow. This is where we end up with the Christmas eve thumping plus the Christmas eve night clipper.
  10. John1122
    GEFS had some real block busters. The highest mean of the young winter season that I've seen so far.
  11. John1122
    Canadian was a mixed bag, has .10 to .15 ice accumulation over the mid-state and with a couple of inches of snow in the Eastern half of the valley. The ice in NE valley areas actually comes before the mid state ice.
  12. John1122
    GFS says Merry Christmas Mid-Valley.
  13. John1122
    With the way last year went and the year before and well, the year before. You learn to appreciate every flake.
  14. John1122
    Actually had a few snow showers over the last hour dusting the deck and car tops. Little blue specks show up on the radar but it's mostly undetected on there. Temp is in the 20s.
  15. John1122
    Spent the day in Knoxville, got home about 7:30 and there are still flurries ongoing here. The snow flurries stopped just south of Caryville today as I headed towards Knoxville.
  16. John1122
    I honestly used to get them at least 3 or 4 days a month minimum from late November to late March. Just doesn't happen any more like that.
  17. John1122
    It's a raw, cold, snow shower and snow flurry kind of day. Flakes are coming down lightly now. These kind of days have been rare the last few years.
  18. John1122
    And for people who like to just check here. That Canadian mauler that stalls the Arctic front and lets a low ride the front that thumps the middle valley areas then changes to snow in the East as the Arctic air continues to invade. In circumstances like this with that nice a cold air source. I've found the cold usually bleeds further east than modeled. I'd love to see this one be the one that comes to pass because it really works out for the entire forum. This is about mid-event. It hammers western areas before this and further eastern areas get in on the action after this.
  19. John1122
    The 00z GFSv16 put this out for Christmas Eve/Christmas as it's finally coming into Pivotal. It's actually sort of inline with what the Euro shows. Much warmer than the 06 GFS in the wake of the snowfall though.
  20. John1122
    06z GFS was more progressive with the cold front blasting through the state around the 23rd into early Christmas eve. Then frigid air rushes in and wrings out what would be fluffy snow to the tune of 1-3 high ratios inches over parts of the area as temps crash through the 20s into the 10s. 12/1PM temps Christmas day
  21. John1122
    The Euro cooks up something for Christmas eve as well. It's not the epic bomb that was the Canadian but it throws out some biting cold and anafrontal snow due to the strength and speed of the Arctic air mass. There's hardly even any rain, most of the precip except for the very leading edge is frozen. The Euro ends up here and it may be higher with ratios. Many of us would have a shimmering blanket on Christmas morning. Not much of any melting either as temps go from single digits and teens into the low to mid 20s to lower 30s.
  22. John1122
    Changed over to light snow at the house. As I drove to town it was mixed below about 1500 feet.
  23. John1122
    I suspect we will at least see snow showers and snow flurries on Christmas. It's a straight up Arctic airmass and it will wring out moisture. I'm also convinced it will snow/rain/be cloudy in general on the 21st too. Ever since the perfect eclipse weather I've been cloudy or precip has been falling for every celestial event. I had a seemingly endless evening cloud streak trying to see Neowise.
  24. John1122
    Hit 31 then started rising. Up to 36 right now.
  25. John1122
    I'm approaching 100 inches this year but probably won't quite get there although the GFS has me pretty close with some of it's big totals showing up. Though technically I'm partly in the Cumberland river basin.
×
×
  • Create New...