
John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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December 2020 Medium/Long Term Pattern Discussion.
John1122 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
This comes about with a ridge on the West coast and the elusive -NAO working in combination. As long as we can keep the Pacific on board we have shots of getting cold and a suppressed storm track. -
Oak Moon Upslope/ Upper Low Storm Obs
John1122 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
From MRX. This was pretty close to the model output, which frankly surprised me. Not sure if they're getting better or just got lucky.- 300 replies
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- 5
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- upslope snow
- upper level disturbance
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Oak Moon Upslope/ Upper Low Storm Obs
John1122 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
There's been flurries all day today. Thick clouds in place with the snow sticking on trees still in places where it didn't blow off. Above 2500 feet there was a solid 6 inches of snow. 3 inches or so below that. Then below 1500 it went down to about 1 inch. Dramatic differences over short elevation differences. Looking towards the Southwest. That's Cross Mountain at 3525 feet in the back. Hard to see so I laid a stick in it. From 2500ft, about 6 inches on the ground.- 300 replies
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- upslope snow
- upper level disturbance
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Oak Moon Upslope/ Upper Low Storm Obs
John1122 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
It was just the track of the low, you were too far East. The cold was very much an east/west thing. That's why it was snowing down in Alabama and raining in northern Virginia. The high-res models had a pretty big area up into SWVA with little accumulation. I didn't think it reached all the way up to you though. They honestly handled this event really well. The RAP gave me around 3 inches last night and that's about where I'm going to end up at. The bullseye outside the high eastern mountains was the eastern rim and western Plateau and it looks like it was good there too. Knoxville overperformed on a couple of models but I believe the RAP had them with .9. It even had the blank spot across Anderson county and it appears to have verified. They likely got downsloped.- 300 replies
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- upslope snow
- upper level disturbance
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Oak Moon Upslope/ Upper Low Storm Obs
John1122 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
I guess the radar is on high sensitivity and may he picking up ice crystals in the clouds.- 300 replies
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- upslope snow
- upper level disturbance
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Oak Moon Upslope/ Upper Low Storm Obs
John1122 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Anyone out around NW Davidson? Wondering what that blob on the radar is doing.- 300 replies
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- upslope snow
- upper level disturbance
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Oak Moon Upslope/ Upper Low Storm Obs
John1122 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
It's classic upslope here. Strong winds. Not showing up on radar. Thick foggy looking sky filled small flakes. I've gotten another 1/2, inch in the last 45 minutes. 3 inches total.- 300 replies
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- upslope snow
- upper level disturbance
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Just added it up, over 92 inches of rain so far in 2020.
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4.83 inches of rain for November makes it my second driest month of the year.
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Oak Moon Upslope/ Upper Low Storm Obs
John1122 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
It's rocking and rolling here now. Strong winds and heavy snow. Winds are NNW at 18 with gusts hitting 30. The snow is coming in sideways.- 300 replies
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- 1
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- upslope snow
- upper level disturbance
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Oak Moon Upslope/ Upper Low Storm Obs
John1122 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Schools closed here already. Probably have a few hours to go with the snow. The low is just creeping along which is helping.- 300 replies
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- 4
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- upslope snow
- upper level disturbance
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Oak Moon Upslope/ Upper Low Storm Obs
John1122 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
I hope it's not another apocalyptic event down there.- 300 replies
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- upslope snow
- upper level disturbance
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Oak Moon Upslope/ Upper Low Storm Obs
John1122 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
The radar can see the lower atmosphere better the closer precipitation is to it. Snow, especially when it gets the NW flow component, comes from lower in the atmosphere. The Plateau is about as far away from each radar site in the area as possible. Especially Jamestown, and the radar beams can basically shoot over the snow at times on the edge of its range.- 300 replies
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- upslope snow
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Oak Moon Upslope/ Upper Low Storm Obs
John1122 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
The Plateau eats snow on the radar. It's even worse over Jamestown to Western Campbell.- 300 replies
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- upslope snow
- upper level disturbance
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Oak Moon Upslope/ Upper Low Storm Obs
John1122 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
They are pretty thick here. Virtually no hunting pressure and plenty of TWRA food plots. They built one big one very close to my property.- 300 replies
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- upslope snow
- upper level disturbance
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Oak Moon Upslope/ Upper Low Storm Obs
John1122 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
A local out enjoying the snow.- 300 replies
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- 6
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- upslope snow
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Oak Moon Upslope/ Upper Low Storm Obs
John1122 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
I believe this is all still synoptic snow rather than NW flow snow. My precip is moving basically west to east and it looks like there's even a SW component to it at times. Looks like the NW flow snow is out west still with the streamers pointed towards Nashville.- 300 replies
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- upslope snow
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Oak Moon Upslope/ Upper Low Storm Obs
John1122 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Snow has really picked up and is moderate with around 1/2 mile visibility. Hopefully we can get several hours of this after dark.- 300 replies
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- upslope snow
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December 2020 Medium/Long Term Pattern Discussion.
John1122 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
I think it was February 2015 when the EPO drove us into Polar Vortex land and it just blasted MJO, +NAO and all that into near meaninglessness. -
Oak Moon Upslope/ Upper Low Storm Obs
John1122 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
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December 2020 Medium/Long Term Pattern Discussion.
John1122 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
If we can get an EPO ridge where that one is depicted we tend to mute then MJO to a large extent. The EPO can he epic or stink though. It it's west based at all we get the SE Ridge. -
Oak Moon Upslope/ Upper Low Storm Obs
John1122 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
I am in burst mode right now. It snows hard for 5 minutes then stops. Was it doing that there?- 300 replies
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- upslope snow
- upper level disturbance
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Oak Moon Upslope/ Upper Low Storm Obs
John1122 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
About to drive up to 2800 feet above my house here. I suspect there might be at least a heavy dusting up there. Maybe more. Probably 30 degree or so at that elevation.- 300 replies
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- upslope snow
- upper level disturbance
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Oak Moon Upslope/ Upper Low Storm Obs
John1122 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Nice quarter + sized flakes rolling down now. Because it's day time and the ground is warm, not much sticking yet. I'd guess 300 feet above me will be.- 300 replies
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- upslope snow
- upper level disturbance
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Oak Moon Upslope/ Upper Low Storm Obs
John1122 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Light snow here. Looks like the band that was pivoting my way kinda hit the breaks and really blossomed to the west and south in the mid state.- 300 replies
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- upslope snow
- upper level disturbance
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