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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    The ICON has a 1 to 2.5 inch event basically for some of middle to the Plateau. Doesn't really hit the far Western areas like the NAM did.
  2. John1122
    RGEM is slower/warmer than the NAM. On the NAM the Northern stream wave gets out in front of the southern system. On the RGEM the northern wave is more in synch and is sitting in the great Lakes when the storm is getting going. That shuts down some of the cold for the system on the RGEM so it's a rainer.
  3. John1122
    The NAM rolled in guns blazing for the West and Mid Valley. Fizzles for the East Valley.
  4. John1122
    In the 1960s it snowed here no matter what it seems like.
  5. John1122
    Ventrice also tweeted earlier that the Westerly OBO was beginning to affect the Troposphere and that could possibly weaken the MJO convection for a while. I've never researched it for here, but for Atlanta's winter events I believe GaWx found they mostly occurred when the MJO was in the C.o.D. Generally if Atlanta is having a shot at snow it's cold here and we've had it too.
  6. John1122
    The weeklies had probably their snowiest run of the winter season so far. It wasn't spectacular but would represent something close to normal for most areas through January 25th. The snowiest 4 weeks we have are basically January 17th-February 14th so the Weeklies are just reaching there at the very end. It was around 4-6 inches in Eastern areas, 2-4 Western and southern areas.
  7. John1122
    If I were guessing most of the big -NAO storms that hit eastern areas come when the Pacific is also favorable. The best temperature set up obviously comes when all three are negative. But when the EPO is negative in conjunction with the AO, basically everyone in the South, west of Raleigh to Columbia is colder when the NAO is positive than they are when the NAO and AO are negative but the EPO is positive. So our ideal combination is -EPO/-AO/-NAO, followed by -EPO/-AO/+NAO, then +EPO/-AO/-NAO. We are rarely dry for long but it can happen. Getting cold is always our biggest step towards wintery weather Valley wide and it's much easier when the Pacific is working for us instead of against us.
  8. John1122
    The Pacific being poor is just a killer. I'd take a favorable Pacific over the -NAO 8 days a week. Miller A rain event happen when the Pacific is bad. Wide spread winter is possible when it's good even if the Atlantic is bad.
  9. John1122
    The AO is supposed to go epic in it's negativity. If the Pacific can marginally cooperate we should be heading for frigid weather later in the month.
  10. John1122
    Definitely and uptick in snow across most members vs 12z.
  11. John1122
    Starting at 102 the GEFS has most members showing a 24 hour winter event evolving across the Valley.
  12. John1122
    There's some school of thought that solar flares tighten the polar vortex and cause the NAO to go + but that it runs in 100 year cycles that cause it to go negative. You can probably guess which cycle we appear to be in right now. However, not all is lost, just late year researchers at Columbia University in the Earth Observatory and School of Engineering released a paper that pretty much debunked any connection between the two.
  13. John1122
    The difference in the 00z Euro vs the 12z is the PNA ridging. At 00z is was stronger and it shunted the system further south, that let it wind up more. 12z the ridge was less sharp and the system stayed weak and open as it rolled across the south. I wouldn't sleep on it yet. It may not be a block buster but I wouldn't rule out snow for someone in the region from it.
  14. John1122
    Not saying the Euro is going to verify, but events like that do happen here, it's just been a while. One of these days it's eventually going to happen again.
  15. John1122
    Major winter storm on the Canadian as well for the region later in the run. Ice and snow on top of it. The teleconnections look much better. The Euro is getting towards a -EPO/-AO/-NAO look.
  16. John1122
    At 500, the GFS looks great around the 15th all of a sudden. Nice -EPO bumping into Alaska with a near nationwide trough.
  17. John1122
    Not as extreme as the Euro, but the Icon laid down a solid 2-3 inch stripe from the Plateau to Nashville and a little southwest of there, also a dollop of 2 inch area in NE Mississippi in the same timeframe as the Euro storm.
  18. John1122
    For some reason I expected it to be warmer today. It's a steady 35 and should probably start falling in the next hour, as the sun will set for me in about 10 minutes.
  19. John1122
    I just noticed how impressively it blanks Knox county on that run.
  20. John1122
    The Euro just bombed the mid-state.
  21. John1122
    I actually saw a story yesterday discussing ways to mitigate global warming via man made activities. One was reflecting sunlight via billions of floating pingpong balls. Others were releasing aerosolized sulfate high in the atmosphere at around 65000 feet, and using sea water to seed clouds. They said that each could lower global temps by .8 to 1.3c in the next decade. If if brings back winter, I say let it ride.
  22. John1122
    Had a decent snow shower before dark that lasted about 15 minutes.
  23. John1122
    A few flurries floating around here.
  24. John1122
    Probably the most positive about that EPS/GEPS/GEFS long range, a crap ton of cold should build across Siberia, Alaska and Canada as we approach the first day of solar winter. Those regions are ultimately our source for cold air when it gets tapped. The pattern looks changeable enough that we could get some very cold blasts during relaxations in the warmth. Those are fairly common in La Nina patterns historically, though I pause to use historical outlooks these days because they don't seem to work out as often.
  25. John1122
    The next 10-14 days look volatile, at least on the Euro. Cold/warm/cold/warm roller coaster weather. The Euro loads Alaska with cold and occasionally ridging out west bumps a piece towards us. As for snow, all about timing but we will likely have a least one cutter in the next 10 days.
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