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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    Normally the UK would be out on pivotal by now but they are having server issues.
  2. John1122
    The Canadian is still slower than the GFS but it has sped up towards the GFS solution. Also much more snow on it vs 12z. So the above comments about it folding towards the GFS were spot on.
  3. John1122
    The Doc has been all in, or kinda in, depending on which run, for a week now. Actually most of it's moves have been towards the GFS when it does move.
  4. John1122
    Around 12:50.
  5. John1122
    GFS ratio'd, still consistent.
  6. John1122
    GFS maintains for another run. Someone is going to fold on way or another. Though the Euro has been flopping from great to meh the past few days.
  7. John1122
    Not sure who to believe, the consistent GFS or the waffling foreign models. One thing is for sure, it's never easy any more.
  8. John1122
    I'd say we are about 12z runs today away from starting a thread for the Christmas event. It's been consistent on modeling for days and the event is getting close to moving onto HI-Res model territory.
  9. John1122
    GEFS is more smoothed and better for most areas vs the OP. I actually do better on the OP but this looks more reasonable overall and I'd prefer this to be closer to reality.
  10. John1122
    Ends up here after another spoke of energy gives a bit more accumulation to some of the area. Can't imagine there will be strips of heavy accumulations and random blank spots in the actual event but who knows.
  11. John1122
    It's showing the odd fingers of accumulation that the ensembles have been showing, this run. Not really sure how that would happen to be honest.
  12. John1122
    The 06z GFS is super progressive so far. Has snow breaking out in the northern mid-state by 1am Christmas eve morning. Hammering the I-75 corridor by 7am.
  13. John1122
    Strangely, and in defiance of literally every single model run for the past 4 days across every single model and ensemble suite, it actually has my snow chances as lower than Knoxville's and I dropped from 60 percent to 40 percent for Christmas Eve night. No clue on what to make of that one.
  14. John1122
    MRX playing it cautious. Basically the standard "well, it's probably going to snow in the mountains." disco. Can't really blame them though they did put out a giant graphic yesterday talking about a wintry Christmas.
  15. John1122
    Ratio'd Euro.
  16. John1122
    The ratio'd euro is much more impressive. Widespread 6+ in the East. 8-10 N plateau. 2-4 mid state.
  17. John1122
    The model dosey do. The GFS steps up, the Euro steps back, then they reverse.
  18. John1122
    The runs beyond 200 hrs are prone to wild swings even at 500mb. A couple of weeks ago they were throwing out +20 anomalies for this time frame. The SE ridge could happen but who knows. I think Holston has found at times if convection flares even briefly in MJO regions that are warm, the next GFS run goes bad at 500mb the next run or two.
  19. John1122
    Apparently Pruitt was maybe paying players and recruits. I have no idea how he could be cheating like Alabama but producing that result on the field. My main hope is that it allows him to be fired with cause and saves UT 12 million in buyout money. We aren't going to be any worse on the field regardless of the outcome.
  20. John1122
    Tennessee football sends it's condolences as a fellow loser.
  21. John1122
    Fortunately the Euro has been pretty bad at this range to date in December. Usually in the opposite direction with it showing big events while the GFS didn't.
  22. John1122
    Not the GFS but this is way better than it's 12z clown map.
  23. John1122
    Canadian went a bit weird that run. Reminded me of the solution models were throwing out a few times in the early December storm. Much slower than the GFS and it snows basically all day Christmas day.
  24. John1122
    It often seems to be around but Eric Webb I believe swears it doesn't prevent southern snow storms at all.
  25. John1122
    There's been some super negative AO looks on the ensembles. Several guys like Ventrice have been talking about early January looking icy. Glad you know the East Asian stuff.
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