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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    GFS and NAM are similar again midweek. Both pop a low that rides up the front east of the Apps, the NAM just doesn't really produce much precipitation with it back into our area, still it's mostly happening beyond hour 60 on the NAM, so the end of it's range. The GFS isn't as juicy as it was at 18z but still has the event unfolding with ice in central/western areas and 1-3 inches of snow around the Plateau and west.
  2. John1122
    The Rams also got some help. Think the NFL wanted the TV markets in New England and LA for the Super Bowl? I believe both are in the 6 or 7 biggest in the nation.
  3. John1122
    It's at the very end of it's range and probably not quite handling it properly yet, but the 18z NAM took a small step towards the GFS/FV3 solution.
  4. John1122
    It's very close to the FV3 all of a sudden with both snow and zr potential.
  5. John1122
    The FV3 is finally beginning to blink on it's big snow totals mid week. It still has a lot of them but not as much or as widespread as the last few runs. It has more ice though. Not sure why it's so insistent on developing the wave on the front when the others aren't.
  6. John1122
    It some how manages to snow fairly heavily all around the South except for the Southern Eastern Valley/NE Georgia area. At the 240 mark another southern system is effecting the whole forum with snow and it's pointed at those areas.
  7. John1122
    06 FV3 has the same threat as the Euro, but further south. It's another good shot of snow for the central and western valley and points south that eventually gets basically the whole forum. Looks like by the end of this run basically the deep south to the mid south will have gotten a nice bit of model snow. It swings by and drops 5-6 inches in Atlanta even.
  8. John1122
    The FV3 has Nashville well into the 50s Wednesday morning ahead of the front. It falls to below freezing a by Wednesday evening and the cold is undercutting the precip. The temps are almost exactly the same on the GFS. The GFS is more rain to snow without the zr transition. It also doesn't develop a wave on the front like the FV3 does. Much bigger precip shield behind on the FV3 due to that wave.
  9. John1122
    The FV3 is much much higher resolution and may be seeing the low level cold better than the GFS. It could also have a bias for being too cold. I don't know if it's going to be right, but as I've said a few times already, one of the biggest model struggle I note in winter is how they handle low level cold, both with scouring it out too quickly at times and with moving it in too slowly at times.
  10. John1122
    FV3 bumps totals up in the eastern valley, maintains in the central/western valley. Huge ice again this run on it.
  11. John1122
    Light flow snow going, have a dusting right now. Temps is down to 26 degrees.
  12. John1122
    You must have some ridges around you giving you some shelter from the wind. Gusts are uniformly 20-30 across the area, Oak Ridge, Crossville, Middlesboro, Chattanooga etc. As I type this it's gusting up right now outside. I'd say 20-25.
  13. John1122
    Yep, it died quickly. Not sure if you are in a spot to get NW flow snow or not but if you are, hopefully you can get some.
  14. John1122
    I'm most surprised you're getting calm winds. They are roaring here. Actually heard a limb hit my roof a little while ago.
  15. John1122
    Unfortunately it looks like the commahead is on the fast track to dying out on the radar. It could partly be moving into poor radar coverage but I think mostly it's lost support from the parent low. The NW flow may kick in for a while and bring enough snow showers here to cover things.
  16. John1122
    Gusty wind, moderate snow and 33 here now. Small flakes, but it looks like a thick fog outside due to the snow. I'd guess the winds at 25-30 WNW/NW
  17. John1122
    Snowing here as well. Temp is 37. Nothing even showing on the radar right now here. Hopefully the area from Nashville into Kentucky can make it here.
  18. John1122
    We will see if/when it blinks. It's a mega ice/sleet/snow event for the western 2/3rds of the valley region. .5 to 1 inch of zr, 3-8 inches of snow and sleet. My county and sw down the eastern edge of the plateau is the line basically. The far SE of the county gets only zr, but the rest gets 2-8 inches of snow on the FV3. The zr spills off the eastern edge of the plateau into the adjecent counties. Models very often underperform the cold air that can slide under in this set up. But the FV3 is either seeing it better than other models or its out to lunch.
  19. John1122
    Lake effect is pretty rare in Chicago. Very lucky to be there for it. I've been in it in NE Ohio before. Among the heaviest snow I've seen falling, but the main thing is the duration of +snow with it.
  20. John1122
    Front just passed here with gusty winds and a heavy rain shower. It was 50 10 minutes ago. Now 48.
  21. John1122
    The comma may reach Nashville before it starts dying. I'd say most people west of the Plateau along and north of 40 at least get a white ground.
  22. John1122
    The FV3 isn't backing down from the midweek system. It's on it's own with the amount of cold. Looks like a lot of near misses or light events being thrown out in the extended. This will either be a nice period over the next two weeks or the 2nd year in a row with very frustrating weather.
  23. John1122
    Pivotal maps for the midweek system on the FV3. Devastating ice followed by some nice snows. Also some sleet in here somewhere. The freezing rain map shows some of the ice in the central valley of east Tennessee along the edges of the Plateau in Roane/Anderson/Union County. Those areas are in the .5-.75 ice range there. This is the most extreme model of the bunch but it's been very good with surface features in the 5 day range. We will see how close it is here.
  24. John1122
    The FV3 is still in build a glacier mode from the Plateau and westward. Air behind the front is much colder on it vs the other models. Lots of freezing rain/sleet/snow for especially for Middle and Western areas. A lot of this is freezing rain/sleet. Pivotal has much better snow maps for this model but they come in much slower. Also, the FV3 skips a ton of frames later in the run but it looks like interesting weather may be happening for us during the missing frames.
  25. John1122
    Ice is pretty common during these situations, and middle Tennessee is usually a prime area for it when Arctic air undercuts precip. The front stalls just on the other side of the mountains and a wave rides up it. Sub freezing surface temps undercut the precip from the Plateau and west as it rides up the front. Once the low gets north of the area, it pulls a little more cold air into the eastern sections and changes precip over to light snow. Each model is handling it differently. The FV3 just crushes middle Tennessee with frozen. The GFS less so but still significant icing with sleet and snow on top of it. The Euro at 0z was much warmer for it as it didn't really have the Arctic air nearly as strongly undercutting the precip and was generally a rain event. The Canadian was colder than the Euro and was about middle ground between the GFS/FV3 and the Euro. It stalled the front on the Apps an the low rides up generally over East Tennessee. So everything was warmer but still with some frozen. Once the system starting today finishes, we should get better ideas what to look towards on Wednesday. Then that system will effect the next one coming a few days later and so on. Small changes in each results in big model swings at range.
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