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John1122

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  1. John1122
    It's the one that hit here but their snow map was off into Tennessee. I'm pretty sure it was a very plateau/eastern rim and points north event. Dynamic cooling with heavy heavy snow. 16-24 inches across Campbell/Scott/Fentress areas and 8-14 across the highland rim. Daniel Boone will know more about if Claiborne got in on it.
  2. John1122
    I had 2 inches of snow from that system and almost 2 inches of rain. Temps were marginal. 38/31. As usual, Wise Va was the big winner in the region with 4.5 inches. January 94 had about 3 weeks of cold/snowy/icy weather depending on where you were located. There was a major winter storm on January 17th. If I remember correctly from Tri to Knox to Crossville to Nashville had some pretty big ice with 2-3 inches of snow on top of it. It stayed snow here and across Southern Kentucky with 6-10 inches falling. I can remember watching channel 6 news and Knoxville was a skating rink and my area had massive snowflakes falling. It had been frigid in the days leading up to it and the ground was frozen brick solid. Potent cold front passage with it, temps fell 20 degrees in an hour or two. temps were in the 10s below 0 across a lot of the area after the front passed over the snow/ice cover. Temps stayed cold for the next week after and the snow stayed on the ground for around 8-10 days. After the January cold, February was pretty warm. Which as we know is par for the course here, we often manage 4-5 weeks of cold and 4-5 weeks of warm in certain winters.
  3. John1122
    It would be truly great to reel that look in. -EPO, +PNA, -AO and at least not a hostile NAO that looks like it could be going towards something good. Should be a decent look for clippers and northern stream stuff too.
  4. John1122
    A prime pattern as we enter the heart of winter is about all you can hope for in a given year. Looks like we are going to have that for a portion or maybe even all of the January 15th-February 15th window. Today was pretty chilly, 36 for the high, gonna be in the 10s tonight. Hopefully we can step down from here. Though normally in El Nino years we don't go full ice box with well below 0 temps, when the pattern is right, especially in the pacific, we can pile up snow while only being a little below normal. 2009-10 I had around 40 inches of snow and I don't recall getting below 0. Yet snow was on the ground for 40 days or something because it never got above 40 consistently during that time.
  5. John1122
    The whole Cuonzo mess makes me want to beat Missouri almost as much as Kentucky these days. Especially the sports writers who proclaimed UT basketball dead. The fact was Cuonzo was offered a 500k raise and still left. He's never stayed anywhere more than 3 years yet.
  6. John1122
    I posted wondering which would happen first, who knew it'd be a tie? Cheney is a good coach, we couldn't win games his first time here, but he built a high scoring offense. Just couldn't stop anyone and lost shoot out games. If Pruitt can build a defense around his offense UT should be much improved in the coming years.
  7. John1122
    That should once again be a big hitter by the FV3. It seems good with placement of features but not sure how good it will be with mesoscale details. Hopefully very good but it struggled with them in December. Was amazing at the 500mb and 850mb features though.
  8. John1122
    The EPS is more bullish than the OP. That's an impressive mean.
  9. John1122
    Pretty close to the Friday night system and it's looking better and better for especially western areas to see several inches of snow as I'm currently putting a lot more faith in the Euro than the other suites right now. It's been pretty consistent with 2-3 inches for Nashville and more west and north of Nashville. Not sure how much to trust the FV3 at all, hopefully it runs at 18 since it skipped 12, but the 06 was a 3-4 inch front end thump for my area on the more reasonable snow maps. GFS data issues are more concerning to me than they normally would be, though it's showing the best solution for mby, I tend more to side with the Euro still. Probably not a bad idea to start a thread if tonight's runs stay consistent, so this one can stay more focused on the medium to longer term.
  10. John1122
    While reading an article about the shutdown effecting accuracy of the current weather forecasts, I came across this article talking about a new IBM weather model they claim is 200 percent more accurate than others. I'm not sure if it is something that is/will be available to the public or what.
  11. John1122
    The Euro was pretty nice for the northwestern part of the region. It snows across the state but it's losing it's punch and getting into daylight hours as it gets east of the Plateau. Nashville get 2-3 inches, Clarksville gets 3-5 probably with 4-6 in NWTN/SWKY. Plateau gets 1-2, SEKY does as well and so does SWVA. Slim pickings most other areas. 1 inch or less. A nice wall of heavy snow is working across the state then I assume it transfers to the coast because the precip dies off. When more arrives it's mostly warmed enough to rain. The Euro is definitely the most consistent of the models at this point.
  12. John1122
    Half of Clemson's team are guys that wanted to be at UT but Butch failed to close the deal with them.
  13. John1122
    It honestly looks like classic GFS to me. I do not expect the high to be that strong. One of its biases seems to be to have highs 2 or 3 mb stronger a few days out than they verify, sometimes more. The FV3 seems to be having the same bias.
  14. John1122
    On one of those crazy FV3 runs the other day it phased 3 pieces.
  15. John1122
    Probably but I believe the track of the low would be more suppressed with the cold being deeper here. There's some -30f air associated with that high. You'd think it would have pretty free reign on the west side of the Apps.
  16. John1122
    I'd take this look all day. No way that LP is that far north imo with a 1045 high right over the top of it.
  17. John1122
    FV3 is stuck at 90 for me, but at that hour it's about 200 miles SSW with the LP placement over west Texas vs 12z. HP look similar pressing down into Minnesota. Will have to see if it stays more over the top or if it moves ahead and lets it cut.
  18. John1122
    The GFS OP was N of it's ensembles. This is as good a mean as we've seen in a while.
  19. John1122
    18z shifted south by around 100 miles and brought the heavier snow back into the forum area. Heaviest axis shifted from the Ohio River to Southern/Central Kentucky/SW Virignia. Northern Arkansas and the Western Carolinas also take a big shot. It was mainly due to a slightly stronger high that was slightly further south. The high almost assuredly won't be as strong as modeled. But if it is, more of us will be in the game. 1040+ highs mean business.
  20. John1122
    The Euro looked pretty good. Especially for the western 2/3rd of the forum area. 5-6 days out the Euro/GFS are close. FV3 amped and cutter but still gets wintry in our forum area. Canadian fairly weak. Still all models show some decent accums around our region.
  21. John1122
    GFS remained similar to its 18z with a little less backend action. Still a front end snow event with overrunning. Pretty common way to get snow here. Canadian is similar with the front end but weaker than the GFS. The 850s are really encouraging on the GFS. Will just have to see if they remain so. They blowtorched all but the very far eastern areas in early December and were borderline even on the best modeling. Basically the far Southeastern areas are the only ones with 850 issues this time out. So I think that even the middle Tennessee areas that it's showing a little more rain in would have a good shot at staying all snow, especially with any decent rates, with such a cold layer in place.
  22. John1122
    Massive shift on the 18z GFS. Front end thump for everyone just about and then back end dump for eastern areas. The increase in precip made for an increase in 850s. Another great track though in a much more favorable time of year vs the December event.
  23. John1122
    It's tough on the road in the SEC and Tennessee has had more than it's share of trouble with Alabama over the years. Georgia had given UT a lot of grief recently too, but this game was a big shift. They have some rebuilding to do. Otherwise I believe all the SEC games were tight yesterday. Tennessee's best asset is that it has almost no weaknesses. Kansas probably did the best job with UT this year so far with exploiting the few they have, and that was both getting Grant in foul trouble and playing good defense on Admiral, at the time UT didn't have much punch behind those two. Him being off and Williams out of the game cost UT in overtime. Ironically, losing Turner has let Jordan Bone get a lot of minutes and he's stepped up and turned into one of the best PGs in the league, giving UT and 3rd solid punch who can score. UT did get Turner back yesterday, hopefully he can get back into form over the next few weeks and it doesn't take much away from Bone.
  24. John1122
    If Grant Williams can learn to control his foul situation in big games, we will have a good shot as making the final 4. He also tends to get one absolutely bogus foul call per game when even a blind man in a coal mine could see it's not a foul. So that makes avoiding other silly ones paramount. That said, we will have off nights and Auburn, Kentucky, Alabama, Miss State, LSU and some others are capable of beating Tennessee.
  25. John1122
    This are looking more and more interesting for next weekend. GFS and Canadian are suppressed. FV3/Euro much less so. Last couple of runs of the Euro have gotten a little more juicy. 1-4 inches valley wide, heaviest in the eastern mountains. FV3 bullseyes NW Valley and has all but the far southern valley looking pretty good. GFS major bias is suppression. Canadian was more in the Euro/FV3 game until the last run or two. Good set up on the FV3 for classic overrunning valley wide. LP in Texas working across the Gulf. High in Canada with super cold temps up there in Southern Canada. -20s to -30ish. Temps in the 20s/low 30s here when precip arrives. 850s fall into the -1 to -3 range for all but the extreme southern areas as snow overspreads the area. If the path/temp set up from the FV3 comes to pass, it's probably vastly underestimating the snow fall potential, especially from Nashville and points eastward. It has the precip shield just drying out with the LP over the Western Florida panhandle. I would be surprised if that were the case. Euro has more mixing issues and more precip. Not sure why the Euro has the mixing issues, 850s are very very favorable valley wide.
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