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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    Made it down to 23 this morning. Cloudy and 33 as noon arrives.
  2. John1122
    Are you sure it's 2005? I was in the 50s that day, as was Tazewell and Oneida. Even LeConte was 48.
  3. John1122
    The 06z NAM even gets Memphis.
  4. John1122
    Well it was down towards the Yucatan a few runs ago, so definitely north! With the blocking over the top there's generally a limit to how far north it's going to make it though.
  5. John1122
    This would be one of the best winter periods in years on the forum were it to verify. Unless you were in that small screw zone too far east for one wave and too far west for the other. To have this on the Euro a few years ago I'd have been super confident. Super wary instead!
  6. John1122
    Right now the EURO is the furthest north and west, which is one of it's biases. GFS is way East which is one of its biases. The Canadian was middle ground and was basically great for Mississippi and most of Tennessee. Especially along and S of 40.
  7. John1122
    108-114 snow accumulation. 114-120 120-126
  8. John1122
    Big run of the Euro on the 2nd wave for Western areas. Was much better in general than 12z. Still has the same issues as 12z more east but overall a huge winter storm for parts of the forum.
  9. John1122
    Crushing N Miss and West Tennessee at 114.
  10. John1122
    Wave 2 looking good early for Arkansas, Mississippi and SWTN.
  11. John1122
    Great Euro run.
  12. John1122
    Glad you're here. I hope you guys get nailed like the models are showing. The Canadian builds a glacier in Mississippi.
  13. John1122
    Big bounce back on the 0z Canadian for wave 2. 24 hr totals d6ish
  14. John1122
    The GFS is still suppressing wave two but it's much further north than earlier runs. Now it has a wave 3 similar to Christmas with cold catching moisture and snow falling for the next 24 hours or so behind an arctic front.
  15. John1122
    Canadian. Probably been the most consistent model but doesn't necessarily mean it's right by any means.
  16. John1122
    Slightly south and east vs yesterday. But I think it is just model bounce due to the nature of the system being much more unpredictable than a normal system.
  17. John1122
    Next 5 days on the gfsv16
  18. John1122
    GFSv16
  19. John1122
    The GFS is going to score an all time win or have a monster bust. It's going down with a snowless ship. Yet it's upgrade is all in on a monster storm. The Canadian is in the middle and consistent.
  20. John1122
    Tough call for MRX with narrow window between heavy snow or nothing. The graphic reflects it pretty well saying basically zero to several inches possible.
  21. John1122
    0z NAM is pretty similar to the 18z RGEM. At this point models are almost useless to watch run to run. Small track wobbles will happen each run and each time someone will get more or less vs the prior run. General confidence that it will snow is high at elevation, moderate in the eastern valley and low moderate in the mid valley towards Nashville. How much and exactly where will be purely nowcast.
  22. John1122
    JKL put out a SPS saying 1-2 inches in their Tennessee and Virginia border counties possible. If I can get 2 inches I'll be very happy. Hoping for more but skittish due to being in or near the non-Smokies bullseye so often. Heck, my area and Scott County are the only areas over an inch on the hi-res 18z GFS. Christmas worked, if this one does it will begin to restore faith in modeling.
  23. John1122
    RGEM 18z Just standard model waffling with this type of system run to run. A few miles track move had massive consequences on the outcome of the run.
  24. John1122
    I fully expect somewhere to get 4+ inches of snow without any kind of advisory or warning.
  25. John1122
    It's magic is tricking the board!
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