John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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The point forecast actually shows colder lows down 75 towards Athens than for Knox and Anderson Co. 32 vs 33. Point forecasts aren't usually all that accurate but interesting that it some how arrived at that.
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OHX expanded their advisory area one tier of counties to the west but stayed with 1-3 inch totals for their CWA advisory area.
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The SPS has disappeared from the Knoxville to Chattanooga area. Will see soon what replaces it.
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I hope so, I'm thinking 2-4 is probably more realistic due to ratios.
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If looking for changes to the advisory, MRX lowered my snow totals in the ZFP from 2-4 to 1-3, so check yours vs earlier today to see if they've changed at all and it will probably give a clue to their updated thinking.
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41 currently, after 23 briefly overnight before some warming towards morning. Still nicely cooled ground should making laying quick for all of us.
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The 09z RAP bumped totals across the eastern rim, Plateau and Knoxville area vs the 03z run. Has a monster downsloping element in NETN. Roane/Western Knox went from virtually nothing to around 2 inches.
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I'm most baffled by their statement that there isn't model consensus for the event. It's literally on every single model, the only inconsistency in the modeling is probably from Athens south. They are issuing a Winter Weather Advisory, continuing their very long tradition of not issuing a Winter Storm Warning outside the mountains unless circumstances are just slam dunk dire.
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HRRR comes in strong well back into the mid-state. MRX has mentioned wanting hi-res models on board. Be curious to see what they issue. Virtually all modeling is showing Winter Storm Warning criteria for their Plateau zones. Same for OHX.
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Euro has less warm nose and gets the mid state in the game.
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GFS still honking wide spread frozen events over the next week. Basically the entire forum will see some kind of frozen precip over the next 7-8 days and the cold will be stiff. At one point there's snow falling with Temps in the upper single digits and low 10s. Exactly where will not likely be determined until it's falling. Especially the freezing rain/sleet possibilities. But the cold is almost always further south and east than modeling indicates when they happen.
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GFS was still strong on warm nose but less strong than 18z. Sharp gradient with 5 inches in Knoxville and bare dirt in south Loudon and down 75.
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The bullseye is to be feared.
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They both rocked my area. I'm universally in 4+ inches across modeling. What can go wrong 24 hours out??
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Still wild blue yonder range for the HRRR but good to see it coming off throwing out .1 qpf here.
