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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    I believe it was February 2015 but it could have been 2014. I was in the double digits below 0 around February 20th if I remember correctly without looking.
  2. John1122
    I had an inch in 15 minutes with one in March a few years ago. Strong wind, 0 vis, it was a 15 minute blizzard.
  3. John1122
    One happened from the 1st-5thish. It's about a 20 day lag time to truly hit the surface normally from what I've read. There is another split looking like it will happen soon. Heck, WBIR ran a story today about the polar vortex heading this way next week. It's not common we see that in January and when we do it gets really really cold. We were well below 0 in mid to late February last time we got it positioned well for us with no SE ridge interference. It visited the upper midwest a couple years ago but we had a strong SE ridge. It was -25 in Chicago and 60-70 degrees warmer here.
  4. John1122
    GFS/NAM still look decent to good for this one at 06z. 3k doing its thing and throwing down 6 inches on Cross Mountain in my area. HRRR has some nice snowy streaks. Euro pretty stingy. First Northern stream event of winter, may be able to learn if its a model bias causing the GFS to be so aggressive here or the European to be so dry. OHX goes with a WWA and I honestly feel like JKL will expand theirs later today. Not sure if MRX will, leaning towards not likely other than the standard mtns/SWVA.
  5. John1122
    Monster winter storm on the Canadian late run. It's been solid at sniffing them out at range this year. Basically says western and southern forum doesn't need electricity. Then pounds some sleet down and then snow too further east. Heavy sleet, snow and freezing rain are still rolling almost forum wide at 240, it's only been going for a few hours north at East of Nashville by this point. 216-240 snow total.
  6. John1122
    I ended up with 8 inches of snow in that event and 20 miles south of me barely had an inch or two as the far eastern valley battled major mixing/rain/warm nosing. I remember some northern middle guys clocking 12-13 inches. SE Kentucky also got over 12. I had some sleet issues that kept my totals down and even had about 5 minutes of rain right in the middle of everything. By the end of the event and combined with the snow from 2 days prior I had just over 12 inches of snow on the ground. It was one of the best weeks of winter in a long while in the forum area in general. Especially the mid state.
  7. John1122
    They both seem to be reflective of what Jeff posted above. Canadian doesn't look a ton different than the GFS for the first wave.
  8. John1122
    Actually that was the GFS. Here is the V16.
  9. John1122
    GFSV16 has been much better as a rule than the GFS with events this year, its similar or even better through the two events.
  10. John1122
    GFS is downright bullish through Monday. NAM/RGEM less so as of now. It's going to depend on if you get under some convection or not.
  11. John1122
    GFS is pretty decent for the 1st wave for many but doesn't bring as much on the 2nd wave this run. Far SWVA and SEKY add another inch or so to this with wave 2.
  12. John1122
    HRRR looks decent for Western areas. Event still ongoing when this ends.
  13. John1122
    MRX Disco.
  14. John1122
    Looking back at the thread, there was some mixing in some areas but it was way colder than inituallly forecast. MRX had valley highs in the upper 30s. No one seemed to make it above 27. 2-6 inches plus ice/sleet underneath were common here. That may have been the last great clipper we've had here in winter.
  15. John1122
    That said, the biggest difference in that event and this one was that one was extremely cold. Models busted like crazy on that aspect. 72 hours out the NAM had heavy precip but had it as rain or freezing rain over a lot of the area. By event time temps were between 19-24 and it was all snow. 84 hours out models were showing 1-3 inches with a few dollops. At 48 hours the RGEM had started showing some 4-6 inch totals. During the event the HRRR started showing the 5-6 inch totals.
  16. John1122
    This was in the January 2016, 19th or 20th.
  17. John1122
    Need the Margie Ison pic. She was the Clipper queen. We used to get a couple every winter that were 2-4 locks.
  18. John1122
    We had an ultra clipper a few years ago that models just downplayed til the end besides the rgem, which began to catch on about 48 hours out. Border counties from the mid-state east got 3-6 inches. I believe 2-4 was fairly wide spread elsewhere. Model totals rose to the very last run and most never caught up.
  19. John1122
    Both systems on the 06z GFS by midnightish Monday.
  20. John1122
    MRX really downplaying any accumulation outside of where banding sets up Friday night into Saturday but says accumulation will happen under the bands. Which for some reason they say are more likely in NETN/SWVA (which I don't really see why they say that other than that they always say that with any potential event) but they feel short term/hi-res models will likely be the only thing that sniffs them out once the event is very close.. . Regardless, the GFS was particularly nice at 06z with the potential on the 1st wave.
  21. John1122
    UKIE has two systems in the next 5 days that do pretty well for a lot of the area.
  22. John1122
    Long range GFS fridigity.
  23. John1122
    GFS has nearly forum wide accumulations.
  24. John1122
    NAM has some good looking snow showers moving across the area and another clipper poised to follow at the end of it's run.
  25. John1122
    The Euro has now moved some pretty cold air into our region inside of D10. Looking back from around January 1st, I'm actually more surprised we've seen several wintery chances from then til Jan 15th or so than I am that the cold looks to be moving in around January 20th and beyond. I expected much less favorable weather during these past couple of weeks and modeling was showing that at the time. But as we approach verification time the NAO tends to remain negative and we stay on the cool/warm roller coaster with embedded snow/wintry chances based on timing. We have a good cold shot coming with another wintry chance in a few days.
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