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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    That looks like it could be as far west as Fentress but it may pivot east of there.
  2. John1122
    My forecast says the same but I don't think it will get there here. I noticed BNA said another piece of energy would come through this evening. My hourly future cast has snow moving back in from 1 to 4 am. Granted it's snowing now and it just shows cloudy for the next 5 hours here. The flakes are probably dime sized here.
  3. John1122
    This looks like the width of the snow shadow generated in NNW flow there in SW Va and the border counties.
  4. John1122
    I figured you might be doing well. Since the pivot is east right now and it's pulling in the Erie moisture i figured SWVA was in a good spot. I guess Black Mountain Kentucky and High Knob may be down sloping you. You'll see it really hit hard 15 or 20 miles in the shadow of the mountains then redevelop further east. That happens even more pronounced in North Carolina. The upslope rides up the west side of the mountains here, spills over into NC, then the down slope areas hit. Then you'll see redevelopment 50 or 60 miles east of the shadow. I'd guess thats what is happening South and Southeast of you.
  5. John1122
    You should be able to copy and paste it.
  6. John1122
    Another odd thing about this event, 98 percent of flow events are connected to Lake Michigan. This one actually looks like it's picking up some Erie moisture instead and it's pointed down into the mountains further north than normal flow snow. I'm curious about whether or not LeConte is getting hit hard like they do when it's true NW with the Lake Michigan connection.
  7. John1122
    I don't know if it's right or wrong but it's just been bad in general this year.
  8. John1122
    Steady snow and 28 degrees. They just called school here for tomorrow. Nothing on radar at all.
  9. John1122
    Still looks very NNW with the flow at this point, even almost due N to S at times, after a small pivot to NW earlier. Not sure the actual NW flow has started or will. MRX mentioned something about it being NNW yesterday in the AFD. That may mean snow for different folks than a normal NW flow event, at least for now. The reason I mention this is I always say know your back yard here in the region. Small differences make big differences for a lot of back yards. How well you do or don't in NNW or almost N flow is worth filing away for the future.
  10. John1122
    I know it's not been this way for everyone but for me this winter has been 10,000 times better than the last few. I went 4 weeks in the heart of winter with barely a flake the last few years. This year it's snowing at least some around every 4-7 days and I'm at a little over 14 inches on the season and we still have 3 weeks of very prime snow climo.
  11. John1122
    Very strong winds, snow and blowing snow here now. Vis is maybe 1/2 mile. 30 degrees. Accumulating quickly now.
  12. John1122
    The pattern looks great, and we see what happens when we are having precipitation events every few days and a -NAO/-AO and a big EPO ridge in Alaska.
  13. John1122
    Flow went NW and snow has picked up considerably.
  14. John1122
    Only about 1/3rd inch so far. MRX actually updated and said they increased totals for my area. They must be planning on some development this afternoon and evening.
  15. John1122
    Much like the Crossville obs, snowing here but nothing on the radar at all. Snow growth zone must be fairly low. 31 degrees.
  16. John1122
    Looks like Crossville is already reporting light snow and 32. 34 and waiting here.
  17. John1122
    I just don't know what the computer that generates them sees to be honest. Even computer models don't show waffling precip types like that during events.
  18. John1122
    There have been several that went over 2 feet LeConte in the last 15-20 years. I want to say a few went over 3 feet. I believe Sandy had some snow from the system itself involved. I once got connected to a feeder band off Michigan and it snowed 6 inches in 4 hours here. It was NNW flow instead of NW flow though. I believe Christmas eve to the 26th of 2010 was a long duration NWFS situation where around 2 feet fell at LeConte and lower elevations got 6-12.
  19. John1122
    It will be a matter of getting parked under a good snow shower. I wouldn't be surprised to see some lower valley areas get a bonus like that and break an inch.
  20. John1122
    Point forecasts in these situations always crack me up. It's like "rain before 1 am, then rain and snow between 2 and 3 am, then snow between 4 and 5 am, then rain between 7-8 am, then snow between 9-11 am."
  21. John1122
    That MRX map is the most bullish one they've put out for me all year and I've had two 2-3 inch events and a 5 inch event.
  22. John1122
    At one point overnight the roads across the area were all icy/slick per 911 office. But after it got above freezing everything was back to normal around 5am. We aren't close to the predicted high today as of now. It was supposed to be around 50. Currently 41.
  23. John1122
    Warmed up to 34 and have had some heavy rain, but in the last 15 minutes it's switched back to sleet. Very rare to see that happens once the rain starts.
  24. John1122
    Mixed with sleet now. It's rattling off my windows.
  25. John1122
    Big quarter +flakes starting to mix in with the nickels and dimes. Looks like down in Lafollette its coming down too.
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