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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    I'm always amazed that the GFS and NAM can ingest the same data and likely use some of the same physics and can have such massively different outcomes.
  2. John1122
    I don't know what got into the GFS, but bring it on!
  3. John1122
    Another decent night of runs on the models. Even the UK edged it's snow up a little bit where it had been blanking most everyone. Models seem to be coming towards the 1-3 inch area along and north of 40 with 1 inch being much more common. Much heavier at elevation in the far east. The GFS and Canadian are showing another light 1-3 inch type system for some of us a few days later too. We will see if the European comes around any or not.
  4. John1122
    Nothing remotely severe here but lots of thunder and lightning and very heavy rain.
  5. John1122
    Frequent thunder with the storm rolling over now.
  6. John1122
    Went back and looked, the UK and Euro were throwing up blanks to 1 inch totals for Christmas eve 72 hours out. Doesn't mean they will be wrong this time, but the Canadian/GFS was doing much better with it by then.
  7. John1122
    Each model seems to handle different systems much better than others. The Euro was really bad here for the anafrontal Christmas eve event. It didn't catch on until the last minute if I recall correctly. The Canadian/RGEM was pretty close for mby but probably had too much in other areas.
  8. John1122
    The NAM and GFSv16/GFS all seem to support at least a widespread inch.
  9. John1122
    Canadian was beastly for me.
  10. John1122
    GFS and GEM aren't nearly as heavy as the v16 but both have almost valleywide snow. If we can get the Euro on board I'd feel decent about some 1 to 2 inch potential for a lot of us. Especially since it's generally coming at night. The V16 wasn't as exciting as 18z but didn't back off much.
  11. John1122
    18z GFSV16 finally ran. Good run for many of us except as Jeff pointed out, the Chattanooga area. The waves like the anafrontal Christmas event very evident again.
  12. John1122
    It's way out in It's range but several models are looking better and better north of 40 from west Tennessee to NE TN. I'd like to see the European bite but I think it was a late biter for the Christmas event too.
  13. John1122
    Long way out for the hi-res but the rgem was really looking good for many of us. At 84 it's popped a low that is over Asheville. Snowing eastern rim, plateau and NE areas. Kentucky is getting thumped. Probably would have been 1-3 north of 40 with higher lollipops and 4-8 in Eastern KY had it went to 90 or 96.
  14. John1122
    Its heading toward an everyone vs the Euro situation now. Should be in the long range of the short range models soon. The GFS had those weird snow strips that came with an earlier system this season. Maybe the Christmas one?
  15. John1122
    06z GFS looks a little like 0z GFSV16, with NW Tennessee getting in the game and an overall south shift. The 06 GFSV16 looks really good north of 40 across the area. Plateau and west.
  16. John1122
    It's similar to runs of the GFSV16 from earlier.
  17. John1122
    A low track further south with better HP overhead. The models have slowly been shifting south with it. They were cutting it straight to a block then transferring it at one point. That's what got NC in the big snow window. Still transferring but the low isn't transferring from WVA now.
  18. John1122
    Canadian shifted the blues (1+ inch) about two counties south. Light snow nearly statewide on it. Decent event for southern KY.
  19. John1122
    Head to salt mountain with this, but the GFSV16 gets the west valley in the game. I believe this will be the main GFS in February.
  20. John1122
    06z GFS was better for Kentucky. Our SE Ky guys would have a nice event if it were to verify. Northern Plateau totals were up a bit too. The V16 wasn't as big a run as 12z but it wasn't bad. Far eastern areas get a good shot on both.
  21. John1122
    GFSv16 was a bit more south and colder.
  22. John1122
    The 0z runs are enough to be interesting. Kentucky gets slammed by the GGEM.
  23. John1122
    0z GFS was a little further west with the snow shield in about 5-6 days. Webb keeps comparing it to the March 1927 event. That one saw several inches as far back as Nashville with 8-12+ inches across the eastern valley. A foot in Chattanooga for instance.
  24. John1122
    I'd love to tap some legitimate cold with the -NAO around. Hopefully we can get a 2-3 week period with both. Even if it was February 10-March 7th that is great climo for snow here if we can get the Pacific on board. In 2015 we managed to basically get the entire valley involved during the last 12 days of February and first few days of March. I believe the March event was a West Tennessee blizzard.
  25. John1122
    Now very heavy sleet mixed with snow. I expect to hit rain before too long. Temp is up to 33.
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