John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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0z GFS is still a big hitter for most of the eastern valley.
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It actually snowed on East Tennessee at 18z.
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We will see where the 0z modeling goes the rest of the way. The RGEM is usually better with Northern stream systems vs Southern stream systems.
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Swing and a miss for the RGEM that time. Nails North Carolina instead.
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There's nothing better than snow followed by Arctic air. Throw back to my childhood there. We used to stay cold and snowy for days on end. I remember one 2 week period in January in the late 70s where it snowed at least some every day or two.
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Ratios will be your enemy this weekend most likely. It's looking like about 8:1 along the Plateau at hr 60 but it drops quickly down to 3:1or 4:1 over Knoxville and valley area. That's sleet ratios.
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I was looking at notable Mid Tenn weather and found quite a few -15 or below all time records in February. Some of those places may have been colder in 1985 but lost reporting stations. Even more record breaking winter events in the mid-state happened in February.
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I'll make this note as we all hope for the best. Models have performed poorly with northern stream events this year with too much snow, and have underperformed on southern stream events as a rule. So we can hopefully count on that again.
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More impressive than those lows would be the highs under 5 so widespread. That is rare to see any time of year, very rare for Mid February.
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Models struggle with how far eastward cold makes it in setups like the GFS is snowing. I'd probably shift the sleet and zr areas southeastward by a good bit.
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Tropical counts mixing and sometimes very cold rain as snow accumulation I've noticed.
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Had a snow and sleet shower earlier. Temp is only 34 degrees, another day with a busted high temp prediction.
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Possible reason for the shift to Tennessee looking better.
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Both versions of the GFS are like that now. I suspect they are just flat wrong but maybe the 12z guidance will further illuminate things.
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Well, the GFS suddenly looks like the Euro from a few days ago for the weekend storm.
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Look at it this way, it's 200 miles north of where it was on last night's run already this far out.
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Virtually all of this is from February 12th - 14th.
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The GFS is further north and weaker with a long duration valley wide snow event starting Feb 12th.
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The Canadian is cooking up something early next week too.
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Two systems produce this and another is loaded and building in Texas.
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I really hope the V16 is on something besides model crack, it's very snowy over the next week, basically forum wide.
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It's tried a deep south bomb two runs in a row. Always in that mythical d8-10 range with huge snow storms. But a smaller version of that happened in January 2018.
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The snow cover factor will play a big role. February has a lot of all time record lows in the midstate. Very impressive since Jan 1985 owns most of those in the state. I've been -20 in February before and that was in the oft mentioned 1996. Managed around -14 in late February 2015.
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I've had at least some snow on the ground all but maybe 10-14 days since Christmas. It's been on the ground since Saturday now and will at least make it through part of tomorrow.
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I believe LeConte has had snow on the ground since late November.
