John1122

Possibly, but to me that just shows the potential of the pattern being modeled. The exact snow amounts and ice amounts and locations are a long way from being known. That said, both get 3-5 inches from that run. I doubt anyone would turn it down!

If the GFS comes to pass we may all be ready. Still has highs in the single digits and teens and lows below 0 for many in the region for days on end.

The snow and ice lines will move back and forth and likely won't be known until within 24-48 hours if even then. But there's a lot of cold and a lot of precip flying around over the next 10-14 days.

Actually fairly warm rain. It's a very sharp divide on either side of the front.

Long duration and slow buildup is the worst case scenario.

Winter event for western areas starts in about 4 days or so per the Canadian. One wave moves through then another comes along. Massive West Tennessee ice storm.

GFS still honking wide spread frozen events over the next week. Basically the entire forum will see some kind of frozen precip over the next 7-8 days and the cold will be stiff. At one point there's snow falling with Temps in the upper single digits and low 10s. Exactly where will not likely be determined until it's falling. Especially the freezing rain/sleet possibilities. But the cold is almost always further south and east than modeling indicates when they happen.

GFS was still strong on warm nose but less strong than 18z. Sharp gradient with 5 inches in Knoxville and bare dirt in south Loudon and down 75.

The bullseye is to be feared.

They both rocked my area. I'm universally in 4+ inches across modeling. What can go wrong 24 hours out??

Still wild blue yonder range for the HRRR but good to see it coming off throwing out .1 qpf here.

Not that the ground is warm at all because we've just not had any warm weather lately, but it's already frosty and down to 30 here. My grandpa always said if it clouds up in a frost look for snow.

The last of the snow melted off this evening. If we can get some down before midnight tomorrow my snow on the ground streak will stay alive.

MRX mentions the GFS being on an island and probably too warm with the warm nose.

Unless there's a big shift, I'll be shocked if Oneida gets less snow than Knoxville. That would be extremely rare in the set up shown.

Odds are 0z is wintery, then back a few more times. I remember noting in the Christmas storm thread or leading up to it that the Euro had to be right at some point because it showed every possible solution you can have in Tennessee in late December in the days leading into the event. It's flipped around significantly with this storm. Sadly the Para GFS is down at the most crucial time. It was on a hot streak. They probably discovered it was doing better than the Euro at 500 and tinkered with it to make it worse.

MRX was surprisingly unbullish for snowfall in my area.

That said, the HRRR is at the end of it's range on the extended 18z version where it's really really unreliable. It currently shows MBY with .1 precip from this with all other modeling showing .5-.7ish.

I got NAM'd out the wazoo there but still don't trust it at all. MRX is waiting on the HRRR which is apparently the only model they really trust.

The Euro has been doing the flip flop quite often this year beyond D5. It started in late November and has continued it throughout winter.

My annual trek to Chattanooga has been cancelled. Look for increased odds of snow south and east of 40 regardless of model output.

I believe 6 years ago yesterday it snowed about 1.5 inches while I was in Hixon. It's the only time I've seen a flake there. Little system worked almost due east across the southern border.

06z RGEM is back to being a big hitter. The GFS is as well. The NAM is nice and a little further south. MRX is riding with the SREF. Which we all know will suddenly jump to 10 inch plumes at some point.

The Euro is odd to me in that you're very very rarely going to see frozen along the gulf coast with temperatures that warm here. At 210 its 29 in Knoxville and 29 in Columbus Georgia 400+ miles south. At 216 it's 31 in Knoxville to Trj and thats some of the warmest temperatures in the entire south on either side of the Apps. Anything is possible but I just don't see it playing out that way. To get cold down to the GOM and have frozen precip there you usually have to be in the 10s and single digits here.

That 1951 event was just a monster winter storm in the mid state. It hit from the Plateau west. My grandfather recorded 1.6 inches of ice and 3 inches of snow from it. And that was less than half what Nashville received. He recorded a temperature of 27 degrees the morning of February 1st and 12 by 6pm. Nashville was 10-15 degrees colder. The most amazing thing was the far east side was warm, Knoxville was mid 40s into the day on February 1st and crashed as soon as the precip stopped. Tri was in the 60s. Must have been downsloping. Tri fell from 62 degrees to 13 by 11:59 February 1st. 49 degrees in a day has to be one of the biggest drops there ever.