John1122

My forecast is just ugly today. Tonight A chance of freezing rain, mainly after 3am. Patchy fog before 10pm, then patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, cloudy, with a low around 31. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Saturday A chance of rain or freezing rain before 8am, then a chance of freezing rain between 8am and 10am, then rain showers likely after 10am. Cloudy, with a high near 37. North wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. Saturday Night A chance of rain or freezing rain before 11pm, then a chance of freezing rain between 11pm and 4am. Cloudy, with a low around 29. North wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Sunday A chance of freezing rain after 10am, mixing with rain after 3pm. Cloudy, with a high near 35. North wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Sunday Night A chance of freezing rain. Cloudy, with a low around 25. North wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Washington's Birthday A chance of freezing rain. Cloudy, with a high near 30. North wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Monday Night Freezing rain. Low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Tuesday Sleet likely before 8am, then a chance of snow between 8am and 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 34. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

31.8 with freezing drizzle here.

I guess they are rolling the dice on the Canadian. It's been showing snow instead of zr or sleet. MRX has sleet changing to snow here on Tuesday for me.

Just from looking at their forecasts vs model outputs I think MRX is heavily invested in the Euro. Over the last 48 hours or so they've followed almost exactly the Euro temp profiles and ptypes. When the Euro was the only model showing 40s here Monday they had my high at 42. Now the Euro dropped significantly and they have my high at 32. The Euro shows rain Saturday, they have rain here Saturday. They are also using the Euro temp profiles for Saturday while other models have me near freezing then Euro is much warmer in the upper 30s, my high is 37 Saturday per MRX.

Sort of baffled by the MRX disco talking about freezing rain being an extremely rare event in East Tennessee. It may not happen but to talk about them like they are something so rare is unusual to me. I'd guess there's an ice event in the region every 2-3 years at worst, on average. They were even more frequent prior to the 2000s..

A good portion of their early spring is about to look like Hoth for the next 6-10 days.

The Euro did finally abandon its much warmer solution and fall in line with other models. I hope we can get lucky with more sleet.

Down to 40 here. 33 just to my west and north.

That run of the GFS my high temp during the precip is 24 degrees next Monday and .85 liquid falls at 23-24 degrees. My poor satellite will not survive.

After looking the gfs snow depth must see all frozen as snow depth for some reason. Still impressive that western areas keep enough various frozen ptypes on the ground long enough to have the equivalent of 20+ inches of snow on the ground.

The GFS is getting colder each run with that big early week event. Snow and sleet in Nashville, probably 2 inches of each. 4-6 inches of snow in west Tennessee. Freezing rain east with the sleet line creeping closer. Another big storm after for the western areas. NW Tennessee has a 22 inch snow depth 9 days from now. 15 inch depth in Memphis.

Euro continues to live on an island temperature wise vs all other modeling. Way warmer than everyone else. It's predicting highs tomorrow in Southern Illinois in the mid 30s. NWS is predicting upper 20s.

Sharp cutoff on the UKIE. Not sure if it throws out zr/sleet as snow on this map or not.

Canadian is much colder than the GFS and just has light snow across the state early next week.

Another barrel getting ready to fire towards Tennessee and Arkansas next Wednesday.

I'd love to see it leave 7 behind.

Brutal.

I stayed freezing rain the entire time that run for the Monday Tuesday storm. About .8 freezing rain from it.

The sleet storm is just incredible on the GFS. Middle Tennessee and Kentucky would get several inches of it.

The absolute blowtorch warmnose on the east side of the state whenever any kind of low starts to form anywhere in the west is impressive. This may be close to the set up from the massive 1951 multi day ice storm in Nashville. That was 62 in tri cities and teens in Nashville.

Honestly, ice events are so rare I'm not sure. I will say this, I've found that nearly across all modeling that ice is further east/south than it gets modeled most of the time. That leading edge of arctic air is one of the hardest things for a model to nail down and they tend to underestimate it.

0z GFS.

00z hi res.

51 imby. 63 10 miles south of me.

TV meteorologists are so bad at weather. The guy on channel 8 implied being higher in elevation makes freezing rain more likely when just the opposite is usually true. Seen plenty of ice here when it was 45 degrees above 2500ft.