John1122

It was 59 in Nashville hours before the 1951 ice storm hit. Often the stronger the Arctic push the warm it gets out front.

This entire winter we've had one storm that just went from a great track to a cutter and it pulled 400 mile west shifts on all models for 3 consecutive runs. We've had several that tried to come north that ended up further south and east.

It went from Detroit to Atlanta in one run. I may rename the Euro the Bandit it got to Atlanta so fast.

Last night at 0z the storm cut to Ohio.

The shifts south and east are determined by blocking over the Great Lakes vs the NAO region. Last night there was a 1040ish high over Minnesota and another in Pennsylvania. The one over Minnesota literally disappeared in 6 hours on the EURO and the storm cut. That run it kept the storm suppressed then got out ahead of it and allowed it to gain latitude.

The 12z GFS was 200 miles east of 6z. The Euro shift south from 0z was 700 miles.

The front will have a better shot the further north you are and you're in a low spot compared to areas around you. If you can get cold air trapped you'll have a good shot. It looks like models are pushing it over the Apps there, so it's likely deeper up that way and should be able to spill over. You are in a tough spot for downsloping when snow hits if you're in Grundy. I believe the elevations are higher to your northwest, west, and southwest, which are all primary directions that snow producing systems have their moisture feed from here. But being down deep in a hollow like that you're much more prone to ice because it is likely tough to scour out of the valley where Grundy is located.

Euro was further south in Western areas with the ice. Got Memphis when it showed rain there at 12z. Warmer in general though. Not a surprise since it has been doing absolutely awful with temps, missing by 5-9 degrees on the high side at the surface the last several days.

Beautiful UKIE run. It's frigid with more snow.

It's going to be close that far east but it wouldn't shock me. The hollows there are notorious for draining cold air getting trapped. Harlan has a better shot than Bell if I were guessing.

The Canadian has a completely different take and only gives a glancing blow but it's snow. All models have the ice over the next few days. All have the big storm early next week. All are slightly different for it.

V16

Basically after tomorrow the western 2/3rds of the state stays near to well below freezing. Nashville west spends about a week in the deep freeze with snow, sleet and ZR.

Warm nose from hades. Much harder to actually raise temps with precip falling than is likely being modeled here.

20s under the ZR. Teens and high singles to the west.

GFS has a monster winter storm in Texas. Used to be money in the bank here. We will see where it goes.

Big shift on the GFS.

Yep, Plateau west sees snow and the eastern valley is freezing rain most likely. The ICON on TT only shows rain or snow. But the temp is sub 32 basically everywhere but the eastern mountains. Over 1 inch of QPF with Temps in the upper 20s to near 30 in the east. Temps as precip arrives. During. Then as it exits. Precip panels.

The ICON is all in on a big winter event for at least the western 2/3rds of the state. Possibly ice on the east side but not sure yet.

Models didn't see it for sure. I suspect it will transition to sleet then freezing rain pretty fast. The moisture races in in front of the 850 warm nose and it snows lightly on the front end.

0z hi-res modeling suite. Even they can't decide this close to the event where the edge sets up. It has major consequences for many.

JKL extended their icestorm warning all the way to the Tennessee border. That puts our SE Kentucky guys solidly in the game for ice.

I don't remember ever hearing about a warm nose warming the surface in an arctic airmass situation but that's interesting. It's 10c at 850 over Memphis but 20s at the surface during the event so it seems to not affect them.

Modeling has tried to cut straight into banana highs at times all winter and it's yet to happen. I have to assume there is something in the underlying physics that causes that.