John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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After looking the gfs snow depth must see all frozen as snow depth for some reason. Still impressive that western areas keep enough various frozen ptypes on the ground long enough to have the equivalent of 20+ inches of snow on the ground.
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The GFS is getting colder each run with that big early week event. Snow and sleet in Nashville, probably 2 inches of each. 4-6 inches of snow in west Tennessee. Freezing rain east with the sleet line creeping closer. Another big storm after for the western areas. NW Tennessee has a 22 inch snow depth 9 days from now. 15 inch depth in Memphis.
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Euro continues to live on an island temperature wise vs all other modeling. Way warmer than everyone else. It's predicting highs tomorrow in Southern Illinois in the mid 30s. NWS is predicting upper 20s.
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Sharp cutoff on the UKIE. Not sure if it throws out zr/sleet as snow on this map or not.
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Canadian is much colder than the GFS and just has light snow across the state early next week.
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Another barrel getting ready to fire towards Tennessee and Arkansas next Wednesday.
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I'd love to see it leave 7 behind.
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Brutal.
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I stayed freezing rain the entire time that run for the Monday Tuesday storm. About .8 freezing rain from it.
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The sleet storm is just incredible on the GFS. Middle Tennessee and Kentucky would get several inches of it.
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The absolute blowtorch warmnose on the east side of the state whenever any kind of low starts to form anywhere in the west is impressive. This may be close to the set up from the massive 1951 multi day ice storm in Nashville. That was 62 in tri cities and teens in Nashville.
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Honestly, ice events are so rare I'm not sure. I will say this, I've found that nearly across all modeling that ice is further east/south than it gets modeled most of the time. That leading edge of arctic air is one of the hardest things for a model to nail down and they tend to underestimate it.
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0z GFS.
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00z hi res.
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51 imby. 63 10 miles south of me.
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TV meteorologists are so bad at weather. The guy on channel 8 implied being higher in elevation makes freezing rain more likely when just the opposite is usually true. Seen plenty of ice here when it was 45 degrees above 2500ft.
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That's where there's a hazardous weather outlook. That includes rain, wind, heat, cold etc. Just a catchall.
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The GFS is insane. It just never stops snowing and icing. There's also non accounted for sleet in here too. Epic sleet in some areas.
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West Tennessee has 12-16 inches of snow plus ice, sleet and Arctic air next week. Basically a repeat of February 2015 that happened in the East.
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The V16 takes the low road and scoots the low off the coast of South Carolina, which means more winter state wide with a good thump of snow west of the Plateau.
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It won't just be the storm either. It will be the cold before, during and after.
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Probably the most unrealistic portion of that GFS run is extremely frigid air to the N and W of the low that somehow doesn't get pulled into our area when the low is E and NE of us.
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Low went to Tri Cities and then transferred or redeveloped south around Asheville. Trend east is better. Wonky Tri to Asheville development unlikely imo.
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Still trying to cut on the GFS but a little further east. Probably 3 inches of sleet in Nashville on this run.
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Not sure where it will lead but the GFS is colder to the spine of the Apps this run. 9 degrees colder in Knoxville. Monster winter storm in the western areas still locked in place.
