John1122

Looking like not much will happen in my area. I expect the WSW to be canceled by morning. Modeling has just went torch happy here. It's rare they bust too far south and east with cold but they absolutely exploded over the last few days with what they were showing here a few days ago. Honestly they're going to miss as badly in the midstate but that area was modeled so cold it even much warmer was still too much to avoid frozen precip.

Never seen freezing fog causing power issues but here we are.

Freezing drizzle here. It's like living in Barrow, Alaska in early summer here the last few days. Cold, foggy and freezing mist. Which is common on the north slope in June.

4 days isn't the longest since the 40s. At least in the official record books though they get changed occasionally in the name of quality control. But it is a long stretch for Memphis. 1985 for instance never had more than 2 days of highs below freezing in Memphis, which surprised me. However 1951 had 6 consecutive days below freezing. 1966 had 4 and 1976 into 1977 had 4.

The -NAO works best further east than the Plateau unless you're above 1500 feet or so. I've honestly been shocked at some of your misses this year. Right now the PNA is positive and that's helped get the extreme cold into the south but unfortunately the Bermuda death ridge means you're on the border of being too far southeast for the deeper cold. It's rare to see that level of cold hang up in Middle and West Tennessee for that long and be forced so far south because the eastern ridging is that stubborn. It's crazy that Southern Louisiana has had two 12 inch snow events since the Plateau has had one.

I was predicted to hit 36 today. I'm at 31 and in their afternoon update I'm now predicted to hit 32 only. So verification seems to continually be colder than model guidance which makes a big difference in outcome on the ground. Especially around the edges of ptypes.

Not looking at the model outputs long range because I've been focused on the short term. I did look at the indices and see +NAO/-PNA/MJO looping towards 6 on the Euro. So basically get what you can this week then get ready to welcome spring if all those come to pass.

You won't see this very often. Also as a note, Louisiana has had some areas with over 12 inches of snow already and this beast is headed their way. Crazy that they also got blasted in 2018 with big snows.

Euro upped the ice in the mid valley and snow totals were down a bit as a result. A bit warmer in the east without any ice down in the Knox area like there was at 12z.

I don't have the panel by panel access to the UK like Holston but it has snow or frozen with the second system too. I think all frozen may be snow on this map. Not 100 percent sure.

It's liable to be wrong but there's not a more steady model than the UKIE with this. It's exactly the same every run.

Canadian maintains awesomeness for the storm. The midweek would be a flooder.

GFS rolls east pretty far south then just hits the breaks and shoots north at 40 or 50mph with the low. That floods warmth up the eastern valley and its faster with less precip for the western half of the state. It's ridiculous how far apart models are on surface details and tracks 48 hours out. It never used to be this hard for models to get a track down it seems like. Maybe there are just more models with more solutions these days.

The 48 hour HRRR isn't too dissimilar to the RAP. Slightly warmer and slightly faster but upper level support for snow from the Plateau and west. Has some sleet over my area too but only light freezing rain and then 2-3 inches of snow.

It actually put's out a snow sounding at 10pm right over Powell. 36 degrees but the upper levels are sub freezing all the way to a couple hundred feet above the surface.

My RAP sounding Monday afternoon. I'd be overjoyed to get 3-4 inches of snow instead of .5 ice.

The 51 hour RAP is basically snow for anyone who gets frozen after some freezing rain/sleet. Kind of surprising to me. It even has an inch or two around Roane to Anderson.

Great run for western Middle and west Tennessee but too warm and too north for people once you get east of Nashville. Big icy run for say Nashville but only about 2.7 inches of snow depth. Until any other guidance joins it, I'm just going to assume it's the NAM doing NAM things. It never did show me getting much of any snow during the Christmas eve event.

The Low is way north vs 18z again on the NAM.

Through Monday at 10am the NAM is about 2 degrees cooler across the Eastern Valley areas and sub freezing is sliding more off the Plateau. Northern Alabama areas on the line are also slightly cooler.

In a normal situation plenty of people would get great ratios at those temps, but due to upper level warming the ratios won't be what they normally would be with temps in the lower 20s The best ratios will probably be Clarksville westward.

This is basically a mini Jan 1918 pattern it looks like. 1918 was colder and will probably be snowier too but it was very West vs East based. Nashville and Memphis were colder and more snowy by double to almost triple vs Knoxville. They had -10 degree type cold and spent around two weeks below freezing while Knoxville would be on the freezing rain side of the boundary then the cold would crash back in behind it.

Current conditions here after freezing mist/freezing fog. Makes for nice trees but nothing going on the ground currently.

I guess MRX is in with the NAM as the warming trend. Though it was actually colder at 18z vs 12z and is on an island with the low track.

I'm equally baffled that they said the system was trending warmer for Monday into Tuesday. The Euro, which they'd been whipping like a dead horse when it was the warmest model put the Central valley around Knox, Loudon, Jefferson and Sevier into play.