John1122

MRX will probably issue a winter storm watch for Morgan, Scott, Campbell and Claiborne in the afternoon shift. They've abandoned snow here now, freezing rain and sleet with a low of 25 now for my area. Most modeling suggests more than .5 but they just say .1 to .2 in their forecast. Worst of all it says light rain. Heavy rain washes away a little. Should make for skating rink level travel. Especially if mixed with sleet.

You would think OHX would update Crossville's forecast. It's 28 there and they are predicting a low of 32.

Yeah. 911 had to call tdot out here. They were apparently not treating 75 here and it's icy too.

I see the interstate is closed in your area or just south of you for black ice.

I don't really believe the Canadian but it would let me keep power so I'm pulling for it.

Way colder RGEM with better snow/sleet with freezing rain creeping into the counties in the valley that border the Plateau.

THE NAM is still at the poor part of its range but that was better than the Cutter it showed at 18z.

Major ZR sounding Monday evening imby there at least. Love to see snow but that 4cish warm nose at 850 will be tough to overcome.

Struggling to find what I am missing that has MRX now saying I'm going to be rain changing to snow on Monday and Monday night with no freezing rain. Is that even remotely close with any model sounding or output at this point?

Glaze of ice on trees and cars now. Just mist blowing in basically. The fog did lift for now. 31.2 still.

31.2 with freezing fog and freezing drizzle.

The point forecasts are always all over the place. I especially don't pay attention when they are showing 2 hours of frozen, 2 hours non frozen, 2 more hours frozen etc changing back and forth all day. That's extremely rare.

Temperatures went to 32 once the sun set. Big spread even 10 miles to my south where it's 36-37.

WWA issued again for here tonight. Currently 35 after 40 was predicted. Just to the W and NW of me temps are below freezing. Models cooled a bit today for the next event but MRX raised my temperatures some. Upper 20s basically instead of mid 20s and slightly above freezing highs instead of right at freezing. I have found that temperatures don't go up much in scenarios like what's being shown. It's just getting that cold that takes some effort.

The euro is slightly colder and moves the system along much faster than previously. Still a high impact winter storm for most areas west of the Plateau.

Keep in mind this is 6am cst Sunday to 6am cst Monday.

My forecast is just ugly today. Tonight A chance of freezing rain, mainly after 3am. Patchy fog before 10pm, then patchy fog after 11pm. Otherwise, cloudy, with a low around 31. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Saturday A chance of rain or freezing rain before 8am, then a chance of freezing rain between 8am and 10am, then rain showers likely after 10am. Cloudy, with a high near 37. North wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. Saturday Night A chance of rain or freezing rain before 11pm, then a chance of freezing rain between 11pm and 4am. Cloudy, with a low around 29. North wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Sunday A chance of freezing rain after 10am, mixing with rain after 3pm. Cloudy, with a high near 35. North wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Sunday Night A chance of freezing rain. Cloudy, with a low around 25. North wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Washington's Birthday A chance of freezing rain. Cloudy, with a high near 30. North wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Monday Night Freezing rain. Low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Tuesday Sleet likely before 8am, then a chance of snow between 8am and 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 34. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

31.8 with freezing drizzle here.

I guess they are rolling the dice on the Canadian. It's been showing snow instead of zr or sleet. MRX has sleet changing to snow here on Tuesday for me.

Just from looking at their forecasts vs model outputs I think MRX is heavily invested in the Euro. Over the last 48 hours or so they've followed almost exactly the Euro temp profiles and ptypes. When the Euro was the only model showing 40s here Monday they had my high at 42. Now the Euro dropped significantly and they have my high at 32. The Euro shows rain Saturday, they have rain here Saturday. They are also using the Euro temp profiles for Saturday while other models have me near freezing then Euro is much warmer in the upper 30s, my high is 37 Saturday per MRX.

Sort of baffled by the MRX disco talking about freezing rain being an extremely rare event in East Tennessee. It may not happen but to talk about them like they are something so rare is unusual to me. I'd guess there's an ice event in the region every 2-3 years at worst, on average. They were even more frequent prior to the 2000s..

A good portion of their early spring is about to look like Hoth for the next 6-10 days.

The Euro did finally abandon its much warmer solution and fall in line with other models. I hope we can get lucky with more sleet.

Down to 40 here. 33 just to my west and north.

That run of the GFS my high temp during the precip is 24 degrees next Monday and .85 liquid falls at 23-24 degrees. My poor satellite will not survive.