John1122

I honestly find the soundings way more wrong than the map output from the models. Mainly it works against us. It often shows frozen on the sounding but rain on the model output and its rarely frozen and not rain.

The RAP and HRRR have been very good this year within 30 hours. Hopefully they keep this cooking.

MegaRap. Its beginning to change to rain in the east at this point. The low is near Mobile and middle and western areas are seeing snow redevelop over their areas.

This rapping will look like a DGEXing at the rate it's going.

09z RAP looking good through 41.

06z ICON, it only shows snow and freezing rain/sleet i think shows as rain.

Yes please to the V16. I'd cash that out and head to winter 2021-22 and not think twice.

The V16 is unleashing snowmageddon at hr 48 along 40 from Crossville to Knoxville.

06z GFS very front end thumpy.

The RGEM is wintry at 06z. The NAM is completely by itself with this event compared to all other overnight modeling. Snow/frozen on the GFS/V16/Canadian/RGEM/UKIE/RAP/HRRR. Warmer and faster on the NAM/3K.

Only the most brief mention of anything from MRX regarding this event in the AFD. I assume they are going with the NAM and they only mention a brief period of mixed precip before quick warming changes everything to rain Wednesday night. Forecasts for my area are saying 1-2 inches of sleet though.

03z RAP is a big hitter as well. Snowing at 51 nearly state wide and just getting heavy East valley north of 40, in SEKY and SWVA by 51 with similar sleet placement to the HRRR, with this already down.

HRRR through that frame, obviously still snowing pretty well at that point.

Getting into HRRR range.

Euro is coming in flatter as well. Means northwestern areas don't get hit quite as hard. Normally I would be happy dancing with this Euro run at D3. This year I'm not as sold. I will say this one will have some nice cold in place.

Most years I'd love this ensemble mean 3 days out. This year

They have been doing it here for 3 days in a row. How is 75?

I didn't look far enough out on the regular gfs earlier to see it ended here.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Memphis TN 848 PM CST Mon Feb 15 2021 ...Another Winter Storm is Expected Tuesday Night through Thursday... .Bitterly cold wind chill readings will continue through midday Tuesday. Wind chill readings will be below zero to as low as 15 below across the Mid-South. Another winter storm is expected to affect the Mid-South as early as Tuesday night, though the greater chance for significant snow, sleet, and freezing rain accumulations will be Wednesday and Thursday. Any accumulations on top of the current snow and sleet will exacerbate travel problems across the Mid- South. ARZ058-MSZ001>005-007-008-010>013-020-021-TNZ004-021-022-049-050- 052>055-088>092-161200- /O.NEW.KMEG.WS.A.0003.210217T0600Z-210219T0000Z/ /O.CON.KMEG.WC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-210216T1800Z/ Phillips-DeSoto-Marshall-Benton MS-Tippah-Alcorn-Tunica-Tate- Coahoma-Quitman-Panola-Lafayette-Tallahatchie-Yalobusha-Henry- Carroll-Benton TN-Tipton-Haywood-Madison-Chester-Henderson- Decatur-Shelby-Fayette-Hardeman-McNairy-Hardin- Including the cities of Helena, West Helena, Southaven, Olive Branch, Holly Springs, Ashland, Ripley MS, Corinth, Tunica, Senatobia, Clarksdale, Marks, Batesville, Oxford, Charleston, Water Valley, Coffeeville, Paris, Huntingdon, Camden, Covington, Brownsville, Jackson, Henderson, Lexington, Parsons, Decaturville, Bartlett, Germantown, Collierville, Memphis, Millington, Somerville, Oakland, Bolivar, Selmer, and Savannah 848 PM CST Mon Feb 15 2021 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY... ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...For the Wind Chill Advisory, very cold wind chills. Wind chill values as low as 10 below zero. For the Winter Storm Watch, heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches and ice accumulations of around two tenths of an inch possible. * WHERE...Portions of North Mississippi, West Tennessee and East Arkansas. * WHEN...For the Wind Chill Advisory, until noon CST Tuesday. For the Winter Storm Watch, from late Tuesday night through Thursday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. The cold wind chills could result in hypothermia and frostbite if precautions are not taken. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use caution while traveling outside. Wear appropriate clothing, a hat, and gloves. Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. && $$

Memphis has already fired up the winter storm watches. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Memphis TN 848 PM CST Mon Feb 15 2021 ...Another Winter Storm is Expected Tuesday Night through Thursday... .Bitterly cold wind chill readings will continue through midday Tuesday. Wind chill readings will be below zero to as low as 15 below across the Mid-South. Another winter storm is expected to affect the Mid-South as early as Tuesday night, though the greater chance for significant snow, sleet, and freezing rain accumulations will be Wednesday and Thursday. Any accumulations on top of the current snow and sleet will exacerbate travel problems across the Mid- South. ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-MOZ113-115-TNZ001>003-019-020- 048-051-161200- /O.NEW.KMEG.WS.A.0003.210217T0600Z-210219T0000Z/ /O.CON.KMEG.WC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-210216T1800Z/ Clay-Greene-Craighead-Poinsett-Mississippi-Cross-Crittenden- St. Francis-Lee AR-Dunklin-Pemiscot-Lake-Obion-Weakley-Dyer- Gibson-Lauderdale-Crockett- Including the cities of Piggott, Corning, Paragould, Jonesboro, Harrisburg, Blytheville, Wynne, West Memphis, Forrest City, Marianna, Kennett, Caruthersville, Tiptonville, Union City, Martin, Dresden, Dyersburg, Humboldt, Milan, Ripley TN, and Alamo 848 PM CST Mon Feb 15 2021 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY... ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...For the Wind Chill Advisory, very cold wind chills. Wind chill values as low as 15 below zero. For the Winter Storm Watch, heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 8 inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze possible. * WHERE...Portions of West Tennessee, East Arkansas and Southeast Missouri. * WHEN...For the Wind Chill Advisory, until noon CST Tuesday. For the Winter Storm Watch, from late Tuesday night through Thursday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. The cold wind chills could result in hypothermia and frostbite if precautions are not taken. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use caution while traveling outside. Wear appropriate clothing, a hat, and gloves. Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. &&

West siders are basically guaranteed to get this one at this point. It's currently trending colder valley wide. As with any winter storm here, bust potential abounds, especially eastern valley areas. All modeling currently shows ice, snow or some combination of the two from Arkansas to SWVA. Let's reel it in!

I stayed snow for that late January event and got 13-14 inches.

The regular GFS was more blotchy and IMO unrealistic compared to it just on the fact that it has weird dollops of heavy snow with nothing north or south of it and it wasn't driven by elevation or anything else.

V16 just crushing parts of the area. It was early with losing the major freezing rain here. Hopefully it's onto something here too.

I know my sounding is wrong on the RGEM. It has my temp at 31 and my dewpoint at 32 at hour 57. The warm nose showed up on it too but less pronounced than the NAM.