John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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Honestly the wide variety in modeling that MRX is talking about seems to be the NAM family vs basically every other model.
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I said this at about 60hrs out about the NAM in that thread. I don't think it ever fully caught up even as the event was happening. "The NAM was just a blank for everyone that run, but the NAM beyond 48 hours leaves a lot to be desired. The RGEM didn't look too bad, but it's not likely all that reliable beyond 48 either." The GFS actually nailed that system and didn't waiver.
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If I remember right the NAM was lost on that one and never did catch up. I'll have to go back and look and see.
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Picked up about an inch or so today. The tree damage is significant. Limbs everywhere.
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The HRRR has been killing the NAM on snow systems. The NAM has mostly been pretty bad this year but has been okay a couple of times.
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It wouldn't be washed away by rain. It actually would freeze into a solid block as the next front passes and temps fall behind the system. Several models have it switching back to snow.
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The DGZ is below the radar beams again today. Flake size is quite large for such cold temps.
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12z Icon is 3-5+ inches forum wide almost. Sleet around the edges and zr too that doesn't show up.
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Yesterday the NAM sounding had my dewpoint higher than my temperature. So wonky to say the least.
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I honestly find the soundings way more wrong than the map output from the models. Mainly it works against us. It often shows frozen on the sounding but rain on the model output and its rarely frozen and not rain.
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The RAP and HRRR have been very good this year within 30 hours. Hopefully they keep this cooking.
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MegaRap. Its beginning to change to rain in the east at this point. The low is near Mobile and middle and western areas are seeing snow redevelop over their areas.
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This rapping will look like a DGEXing at the rate it's going.
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09z RAP looking good through 41.
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06z ICON, it only shows snow and freezing rain/sleet i think shows as rain.
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Yes please to the V16. I'd cash that out and head to winter 2021-22 and not think twice.
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The V16 is unleashing snowmageddon at hr 48 along 40 from Crossville to Knoxville.
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06z GFS very front end thumpy.
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The RGEM is wintry at 06z. The NAM is completely by itself with this event compared to all other overnight modeling. Snow/frozen on the GFS/V16/Canadian/RGEM/UKIE/RAP/HRRR. Warmer and faster on the NAM/3K.
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Only the most brief mention of anything from MRX regarding this event in the AFD. I assume they are going with the NAM and they only mention a brief period of mixed precip before quick warming changes everything to rain Wednesday night. Forecasts for my area are saying 1-2 inches of sleet though.
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03z RAP is a big hitter as well. Snowing at 51 nearly state wide and just getting heavy East valley north of 40, in SEKY and SWVA by 51 with similar sleet placement to the HRRR, with this already down.
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HRRR through that frame, obviously still snowing pretty well at that point.
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Getting into HRRR range.
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Euro is coming in flatter as well. Means northwestern areas don't get hit quite as hard. Normally I would be happy dancing with this Euro run at D3. This year I'm not as sold. I will say this one will have some nice cold in place.
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Most years I'd love this ensemble mean 3 days out. This year
