John1122

MRX acknowledged the possibility of frozen on the front end for the first time in their AFD. I can't blame them for being reluctant to do much with it, the NAM actually seems to have done pretty well with this event and it isn't onboard yet.

I feel you on that one. Heavy rain just started here and the temp went up to 32.9. Glad it's not more ice. I hate all the tree clean up. Already have some from the snow.

It doesn't shock me. I will note that in my experience the model depicted ptype comes to pass more often than the sounding ptype.

I'm sub 32 from 850 to 925 to surface during the height of the front end thump per the Euro...what could possibly go wrong?

I've seen freezing fog here before, just not day after day of it until it brings trees and limbs down. How are you faring?

Freezing fog storm.

The next wave will hit you pretty hard I suspect. Hopefully you get sleet. I'm losing trees again because of damn freezing mist and fog. I never thought I'd see freezing fog get this thick.

Upper levels can just kill you sometimes. I got 3 inches of sleet a few years ago at 22 degrees, that ended with about 3 inches of snow. About 15 miles north of me at 22 degrees they got 15 inches of snow with no mixing issues. It's the same storm that gave Crossville over an inch of ice.

Still don't know that I believe it but that front end thump is dropping some extremely heavy snowfall in a short time over Eastern areas with .3 to .5 qpf blitzing down as snow. It's showing a change over to rain on the GFS at hr 75 imby but the temp is 32. it's maybe half a degree C above freezing at around 900mb and 32 down to the surface below it with a best guess ptype as freezing rain. Euro had it but not as far east, the 06z RGem has it too.

Drizzle and a couple of light freezing rain showers here overnight. Sheen of ice on basically everything. 28 degrees.

Now the Euro gives me 5 inches and the GFSV16 3 with the mid week wave but I'm in believe it when it's falling mode right now. Freezing mist continues though. I feel like I'm in an episode of Deadliest Catch when the boats ice up during freezing spray.

Looking like not much will happen in my area. I expect the WSW to be canceled by morning. Modeling has just went torch happy here. It's rare they bust too far south and east with cold but they absolutely exploded over the last few days with what they were showing here a few days ago. Honestly they're going to miss as badly in the midstate but that area was modeled so cold it even much warmer was still too much to avoid frozen precip.

Never seen freezing fog causing power issues but here we are.

Freezing drizzle here. It's like living in Barrow, Alaska in early summer here the last few days. Cold, foggy and freezing mist. Which is common on the north slope in June.

4 days isn't the longest since the 40s. At least in the official record books though they get changed occasionally in the name of quality control. But it is a long stretch for Memphis. 1985 for instance never had more than 2 days of highs below freezing in Memphis, which surprised me. However 1951 had 6 consecutive days below freezing. 1966 had 4 and 1976 into 1977 had 4.

The -NAO works best further east than the Plateau unless you're above 1500 feet or so. I've honestly been shocked at some of your misses this year. Right now the PNA is positive and that's helped get the extreme cold into the south but unfortunately the Bermuda death ridge means you're on the border of being too far southeast for the deeper cold. It's rare to see that level of cold hang up in Middle and West Tennessee for that long and be forced so far south because the eastern ridging is that stubborn. It's crazy that Southern Louisiana has had two 12 inch snow events since the Plateau has had one.

I was predicted to hit 36 today. I'm at 31 and in their afternoon update I'm now predicted to hit 32 only. So verification seems to continually be colder than model guidance which makes a big difference in outcome on the ground. Especially around the edges of ptypes.

Not looking at the model outputs long range because I've been focused on the short term. I did look at the indices and see +NAO/-PNA/MJO looping towards 6 on the Euro. So basically get what you can this week then get ready to welcome spring if all those come to pass.

You won't see this very often. Also as a note, Louisiana has had some areas with over 12 inches of snow already and this beast is headed their way. Crazy that they also got blasted in 2018 with big snows.

Euro upped the ice in the mid valley and snow totals were down a bit as a result. A bit warmer in the east without any ice down in the Knox area like there was at 12z.

I don't have the panel by panel access to the UK like Holston but it has snow or frozen with the second system too. I think all frozen may be snow on this map. Not 100 percent sure.

It's liable to be wrong but there's not a more steady model than the UKIE with this. It's exactly the same every run.

Canadian maintains awesomeness for the storm. The midweek would be a flooder.

GFS rolls east pretty far south then just hits the breaks and shoots north at 40 or 50mph with the low. That floods warmth up the eastern valley and its faster with less precip for the western half of the state. It's ridiculous how far apart models are on surface details and tracks 48 hours out. It never used to be this hard for models to get a track down it seems like. Maybe there are just more models with more solutions these days.

The 48 hour HRRR isn't too dissimilar to the RAP. Slightly warmer and slightly faster but upper level support for snow from the Plateau and west. Has some sleet over my area too but only light freezing rain and then 2-3 inches of snow.