John1122

I don't have the panel by panel access to the UK like Holston but it has snow or frozen with the second system too. I think all frozen may be snow on this map. Not 100 percent sure.

It's liable to be wrong but there's not a more steady model than the UKIE with this. It's exactly the same every run.

Canadian maintains awesomeness for the storm. The midweek would be a flooder.

GFS rolls east pretty far south then just hits the breaks and shoots north at 40 or 50mph with the low. That floods warmth up the eastern valley and its faster with less precip for the western half of the state. It's ridiculous how far apart models are on surface details and tracks 48 hours out. It never used to be this hard for models to get a track down it seems like. Maybe there are just more models with more solutions these days.

The 48 hour HRRR isn't too dissimilar to the RAP. Slightly warmer and slightly faster but upper level support for snow from the Plateau and west. Has some sleet over my area too but only light freezing rain and then 2-3 inches of snow.

It actually put's out a snow sounding at 10pm right over Powell. 36 degrees but the upper levels are sub freezing all the way to a couple hundred feet above the surface.

My RAP sounding Monday afternoon. I'd be overjoyed to get 3-4 inches of snow instead of .5 ice.

The 51 hour RAP is basically snow for anyone who gets frozen after some freezing rain/sleet. Kind of surprising to me. It even has an inch or two around Roane to Anderson.

Great run for western Middle and west Tennessee but too warm and too north for people once you get east of Nashville. Big icy run for say Nashville but only about 2.7 inches of snow depth. Until any other guidance joins it, I'm just going to assume it's the NAM doing NAM things. It never did show me getting much of any snow during the Christmas eve event.

The Low is way north vs 18z again on the NAM.

Through Monday at 10am the NAM is about 2 degrees cooler across the Eastern Valley areas and sub freezing is sliding more off the Plateau. Northern Alabama areas on the line are also slightly cooler.

In a normal situation plenty of people would get great ratios at those temps, but due to upper level warming the ratios won't be what they normally would be with temps in the lower 20s The best ratios will probably be Clarksville westward.

This is basically a mini Jan 1918 pattern it looks like. 1918 was colder and will probably be snowier too but it was very West vs East based. Nashville and Memphis were colder and more snowy by double to almost triple vs Knoxville. They had -10 degree type cold and spent around two weeks below freezing while Knoxville would be on the freezing rain side of the boundary then the cold would crash back in behind it.

Current conditions here after freezing mist/freezing fog. Makes for nice trees but nothing going on the ground currently.

I guess MRX is in with the NAM as the warming trend. Though it was actually colder at 18z vs 12z and is on an island with the low track.

I'm equally baffled that they said the system was trending warmer for Monday into Tuesday. The Euro, which they'd been whipping like a dead horse when it was the warmest model put the Central valley around Knox, Loudon, Jefferson and Sevier into play.

I for the life of me don't know what to make of the winter storm watch for my area. It ends at 7pm Monday evening. The worst weather is forecast to arrive after 7pm Monday evening.

After both storms Memphis gets 17 inches and 15+ is common out that way. That would have to join some of the all time wintery periods in the history of west and western middle Tennessee.

The reason the Central Valley of East Tennessee and more of Alabama got more wintry was the Euro shifted south about 100 miles that run vs OZ. the Low heads slightly east of due north from Panama instead of from south central Alabama and ends up near Asheville. If it could only head east a little further you'd see more snow and less freezing rain further east.

Pretty much the Euro has most of the central valley of East Tenneseee getting up to .10 accumulation of ice now. Plateau and Middle Tennessee get 1/4th to 3/4ths inch of sleet. .25-.35 ice in valley counties that border the Plateau. Eastern Middle also gets around that much ice. The Plateau is over 1/2 inch ice accumulation. That snow map is awesome for the western 2/3rds of the valley and at this point, it looks like a classic winter storm that will come off basically doubt free for many of you. You have the most important ingredient for any southern winter storm, guaranteed cold.

Yeah, it's a sharp edge and it just won't budge east or south so far.

The Euro is awesome for the middle and western area. Also folks in Knoxville, it joined the RGEM in giving freezing rain to you.

It looks like it has its best shot on Monday night. The further west and north you are the more likely it does. Anderson, and Roane have the best shot. Deep west Knoxville has better odds than east Knoxville too. It's crazy how the precip overnight has oriented just below the subfreezing airmass. It been a long miserable night down there it looks like. 33-36 and rain is my most disliked winter weather.

The 06z GFS is tough on the Plateau. Coming in line with the 06z rgem for snow out west. The rgem shifted its snow axis west some vs 12z and bumped Memphis back up.

75 is bad in Whitley and Campbell this morning if you're coming back.