John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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MRX call map.
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MRX puts most of East Tennessee in a warning or advisory. My point forecast says 4-8 inches in roughly 3-4 hours.
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Euro.
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UKIE snow and cooooold.
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The Crazy Uncle.
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RAP
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Didn't end as well for Western areas as I expected it might.
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It's beastly. Hopefully it's even half right and we'd all be happy.
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Rgem may have too much of a cold bias but here it is.
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The Euro has a razor sharp cutoff where it falls from 3+ to around an inch right around TYS or just NE of it. This explains why.
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15 and still steady snow falling. They actually went from 2hrs late to closed on school a few minutes ago.
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NAM has major WAA beginning in a few hours. The temperature at Morristown and Knox for instance are predicted to go up 3 to 4 degrees between 4 and 7am. Be curious to see if that actually happens or if it's just the NAM being off.
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The NAM is starting to cave towards other models. Once the HRRR gets towards 24 hours out it's been particularly good this year. Though it's still had a fail or two in that range. Hope the colder trend sticks around.
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3k also working south/east a bit more with snow. 12z
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NAM was a tick south and a tick colder vs 18z. It's been trending colder and more south with frozen in the Eastern areas all day. Still the most aggressive with the warm nose.
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Yes. Or faster at least.
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NAM is colder through 30.
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HRRR ended up here.
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The second wave does well for west areas but looks weaker as it heads east. Probably token flakes on the back side.
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The HRRR is mostly just booking it with everything. It clears out all precip quickly in the east. Still puts down 2-4 inches over much of the area.
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Warmer along 40 and it switched to rain earlier 40 and south vs 18z. Probably gonna cut snow totals in the Knox area this run vs 18z.
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HRRR similar through 30 vs 18z. More snow in SW Tennessee and less around Chattanooga is the biggest difference so far.
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Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
John1122 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
That storm was just unexplainable but it did have some big time Arctic air out in front of it. It was a cutter that produced winter wx. Maybe the only time I've ever seen it happen. Especially to the extent it did. -
The GFS is struggling with this, the Para is not having the waffling. I wonder if the hi-res are better able to see the cold in place? The 12k NAM is lower res than the para-GFS, Euro, RGem, and obviously the HRRR and RAP. The 3k NAM has way better res than the 12k and GFS and is pretty wintery, especially compared to the 12k.
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The RAP ends here and it's snowing on the Plateau and SE Kentucky.
