John1122

I have some pretty high chances of rain Sunday and Monday. After that we may heat up quite a lot it looks like.

Looking back at January 1982, which was one of my favorite winter months here. Wondering what each of your memories are of it if you remember it at all. The local airport weather reporting stations don't jibe with what happened imby but what happened here is mirrored in the two closest stations operating close to me at the time, one a few miles west of me in Campbell Co and the other about 20 miles north of me in Williamsburg Ky.

This follow up Nina, if it come to pass, looks like it will be a weak one with the ensemble forecast hovering around -.5 to -.6 in the winter months. Last year was a moderate Nina and there's never been a moderate or strong Nina that followed a moderate Nina. Only one moderate ever produced a follow up at all. So we may yet land in neutral territory as 80 percent of moderate events produce a La Nada the following season. With weak being the most likely scenario if we get the Nina, the follow up weak years temps were BN across the entire SE including the Tennessee Valley in the Sept-Nov timeframe. The west coast was particularly cool for those falls as well. So it might be a big pattern shift for them as we hit fall. When you factor in every follow up Nina year the Southeast still had BN temperatures in fall. There was a stark difference out west though, it was quite warm for most areas west of the Mississippi, especially the upper Midwest to the Pac NW. Which would strongly indicate the stronger the Nina the warmer the West in Autumn. The winter seasons for the weak Nina follow up years have a similar pattern to what has already been discussed here. Very cold upper midwest, slightly AN southeast with the Plateau being the approximate dividing line between normal temps and AN temps. We really saw that play out last year in the Nina. The February 10th-20th period saw several days with a massive difference from Tri-Cities to the Plateau and points westward with the classic SE ridge battle vs super cold air sliding down from the Upper Midwest. There were 20 degree differences in temperatures across each of the Grand Divisions with Tri in the mid 50s, the Plateau in the lower 30s, upper 10s in Clarksville/Nashville and lower 10s in NW Tn/NE Arkansas. The two anomalies in the follow up weak Ninas are torchy 2018 and 1985 with it's legendary winter. Oddly if you remove them there's almost no change to the map for most of the region. Take away 2018 and northern Arkansas and NW Tennessee are slightly BN instead of near normal with nothing much changing for anywhere else. Take away 1985 and the only area that warms much is a small corridor from Chattanooga, to Knoxville to Tri-Cities with everyone else remaining roughly the same as far as departure from normal. If we do indeed avoid the Nina and go La Nada, things looks slightly better for the valley. The AN area slips over the Smokies and lines up from Cherokee to Boone and points East. The Upper Midwest remains frigid those years, which is where we get our cold from 90 percent of the time. As long as Eastern Montana to Wisconsin gets really cold we have a chance of getting a good cold outbreak, especially the central and western Tennessee valley regions. All the Nina talk is just one factor of many though. We sometimes see the atmosphere defy ENSO and act in opposite fashion to what ENSO would normally suggest.

My rain streak ends at 13 days.

Had another round of moderate rain this evening. I feel Jeff on the frequent rains. You can see the huge disparity from the NE parts of the state vs the rest on that map Knoxtron posted.

Rained from around 11:30-12:30, making this day 13 in a row with rainfall.

12 days in a row now for rainfall.

Rain showers have already started. 11 days in a row with rain.

Daily rain showers underway. 10 days in a row.

Absolutely awesome news! Happy for your family.

Rained hard for about 15 minutes today around noon-1pm. After that it dried out long enough so that I was able to mow. Still, 9 days in a row with rain.

And another heavy shower is moving over now. 8 days in a row with rainfall.

Super heavy rainer slowly crawling by right now. No thunder at all, just a drenching shower.

Only had a brief shower this evening, enough to wet the grass again. It's rained at least some every day for 7 consecutive days.

I live right at 100 miles almost due west of Tri-Cities Airport and it's an incredible difference as far as total precip goes over such a short period. That's the power of geography on weather.

Another day, another thunderstorm. It's like living on the Florida peninsula where a thunderstorm invariably pops up every day. My yard is growing with incredible speed as are my tomato plants and zucchinis.

Ended up with a solid 3 hours of rain. Lots of lightning and thunder for the first hour then just two hours of steady rain.

There was a pretty good eastward movement to the complex of storms and they ended up pouring over my area. MRX had initially put up that they would remain west of 75. Looks like they are going to overspread the 75 corridor and east now.

The firehose is pointed up the Plateau but it might be 10 or so miles west of here by the say it looks right now. Otherwise just had a few sprinkles today. Any eastward movement and I'll probably get soaked again this evening.

More heavy showers rolled through in the last hour. Looks like more lined up west of my area heading this way. Future radar gives me another good soaker around 4:30, we will see if it's close to being right. Hopefully some finally make it to Carvers' backyard.

CPC went bullish for the follow up Nina, usually a good pattern for the western 2/3rds of Tennessee in winter (see last year) but occasionally the SE ridge will be suppressed enough for the entire state to cash in pretty well. 2010-2011, 1995-1996 come to mind.

Had some moderate showers again today, but not as long lasting or intense as yesterday and the day before. It was extremely humid and my grass managed to stay wet all day as the showers were timed out just enough to not let it dry.

Another soaker rolling across. A few rumbles of thunder with this one.

Had a good hour long soaker earlier today, sprinkles off and on the rest of the afternoon into early evening. 71 degrees on the 7th of July is really hard to complain about.

It's rained every day this week here and it's coming down heavily now. Crazy how much difference being closer to the mountains is from its rain shadow.