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John1122

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  1. John1122
    50 this morning. It was down to 65 in my house around 8am.
  2. John1122
    My highest point and click is 86 over the next week. I don't see much on the 12z modeling that suggests any just crazy temperatures. Also grain of salt, but the GFS is advertising the first major cold front of fall in about 11 days or so. Looks like high temps would be in the 50s and 60s with lows in the upper 30s or low 40s.
  3. John1122
    I'm not sure what happened in the 60s but it was a mini-ice age. Every winter then was cold/snowy it seems like.
  4. John1122
    Dacula Weather has these handy maps to look at regarding the QBO. It's better as a rule if it is falling through winter. But those forecasts above would generally be good news according to these reanalysis maps. https://www.daculaweather.com/4_qbo_index.php
  5. John1122
    The GFS looks way hotter in about a week over the Ark/La/Tex than the Euro or Canadian. The GFS is throwing out stuff about 10f hotter than those two. Oklahoma is over 110 in spots on the GFS. That heat bubbles into Memphis with 102 there. It's a big outlier right now so I have my doubts about its record heat coming to pass.
  6. John1122
    52 degrees this morning. It felt spectacular.
  7. John1122
    Day one of met fall, highs in the 70s, humidity fell through the day. Hard to beat after the heat, humidity and rain that ended met summer.
  8. John1122
    This is my second favorite long range thread each year. 60 degrees out there right now and the humidity is non-existent compared to the last two weeks of drippy weather. Was looking forward to heading down to Lenoir City to actually enjoy the best weather of the young high school football season but they had to forfeit due to covid issues. BN temps and BN precip is the forecast for the 6-10 and 8-14 day CPC outlooks. As long as it's not hot and dry I'll take it. I always want to get through leaf season without a wildfire near my house, but about 2 or 3 of every 10 years they get pretty close. Last year the leaves got out of dodge here pretty fast. They were completely gone by Halloween. I went to Johnson City the first week of November and they were still awesome there. The black gum tree in my yard has had some red leaves for about a week now and the sycamore has been dropping leaves like fall already. My windshield was plastered with yellow leaves from it during the rain yesterday.
  9. John1122
    4.8 inches since the start yesterday, it's been heavy and steady this evening and it's coming down pretty hard right now. Was at a high school volleyball match earlier and the gym roof started leaking in multiple places during the game. Lots of water on the roof. There was high water in the school parking lot just trying to leave there.
  10. John1122
    3.16 inches so far after that inch and a half head start yesterday. The rain slacked off for a bit earlier but it's back to coming down pretty good now.
  11. John1122
    1.5 inches of rain from this storm. Still pouring just southwest of me, that will likely work over my area too.
  12. John1122
    Very heavy rain with some thunder embedded has popped up over my area for the last 40 minutes or so. This a a super soaker we didn't need before the remnants of Ida hit.
  13. John1122
    It would be a first if there was even a moderate follow up Nina. Moderate Ninas like 2020-21 have only had a follow up Nina one time since ENSO has been recorded and it was weak. The vast majority of the time La Nada follows a moderate Nina. We will see if it pulls off a first and goes moderate or stronger.
  14. John1122
    It's terrible but that 17 inch rain total is one of the most impressive weather stats in state history. The flood that absolutely devastated this area was 8 inches in 4 hours. I can't imagine the result if we'd added 9 more inches onto that.
  15. John1122
    August ENSO forecast updates are 65 percent Nina DJF from the human forecasters, 55 percent JFM. Model forecasts remain in favor of neutral ENSO throughout winter, though less strongly than they did last month. It will most likely be a weak Nina if it does come to pass. Only 2 of 26 models used in the forecast have moderate Nina conditions for winter. The Euro actually has a weak El Nino forecast.
  16. John1122
    The NWS only has Sevierville with .8 inches of snow for the whole month January 2010. At TYS they record 13 days with snow falling but it all only adds up to 3 inches for the month. 1 inch on the 7th, 2 inches on the 29th and 30th with a trace recorded on 10 other days. The accuracy of these reports are legendary in how inaccurate/unreliable they are, so take them with a grain of salt when your memory is in conflict with them. You're far more likely to be correct.
  17. John1122
    Had a storm that trained overhead for almost two hours this evening. Caused an hour lightning delay at the middle school football game I attended.
  18. John1122
    Made it less than 24 hours without more rain. Storm is clipping me, tons of thunder with this one.
  19. John1122
    Ended up with 6.15 inches of rain since Saturday and just over 8 inches in the last 6 days. Big storms are firing to the west of me in Fentress Co. Not sure if they make it this evening but they probably will by tomorrow if nothing else.
  20. John1122
    1959-60 is such an epic and unprecedented winter for the region it likely moves the needle by itself for the -NAO side. That said, raging +NAO winters here aren't kind unless the Pacific cooperates. Then they can be interesting. Dream scenario is the -NAO/+PNA combo. I'd love to see that map with a -PNA vs +PNA, and/or -EPO vs +EPO.
  21. John1122
    Noticed the small raindrops as I drove across town earlier. Last night a cell popped up overhead and just drenched down huge drops for about 30 minutes, it had thunder embedded. This rain is a whole lot of small drops. Either way, closing in on 5 inches in the last 72 hours and 7 inches over the last week.
  22. John1122
    I knew Chattanooga itself was freezing rain and sleet for a while at the airport. Sounds like you got more sleet than them. I bet it took 2 weeks for you to melt off with how cold it was after and how sleet works.
  23. John1122
    The track has shifted East so the rainfall totals are shifting East too. I can probably live without it. I've had 5 inches of rain this week and it's rained off and on most of today.
  24. John1122
    2 inches of rain and still coming down pretty well. Flood Advisory here until 2:30.
  25. John1122
    This thunderstorm rolling across is going to put down 1.5+ inches and probably did from Knox northward. So those totals may actually verify higher.
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