John1122

GFS is back south and more in line with the Euro. Pretty good run from Memphis to Tri on the first snow event.

We are gonna be in model madness for a while. Hopefully the Sunday into Monday event works out for at least some of us. It's often the case the last few pattern changes that models show a good snow event that doesn't quite work but the next system usually does after the cold gets properly sampled. I believe that has happened twice in the last 5 years.

I love a great Pacific set up. Also very interested in the next weekend event with the Euro on board. Sure it will change 100 times between now and then on the various models but I like that all are keying on a near valley wide event. Models often struggle with the pattern after storms and once they pass things become more clear. Will have to see if that is the case with the GFS being so variable from run to run. The event this coming weekend is no surprise, as I'm going to Chattanooga for New Years and it's rare that there isn't at least a snow threat on models when I go there in a winter month.

18z GFS drops the anafrontal hammer. Heavier version of last Christmas. Modeling is starting to show this to some extent on all suites. Nice to see something cooking inside d10 for a change.

Mid-60s here two days in a row. It's even humid outside. Fortunately the temp is falling a bit now and it's 57 imby, so only about 14 degrees above where it would usually be on a late December late afternoon. I'll go back and look at some point, but it seems like every time we have extremely AN temps in late Dec or Early Jan we bounce back to extreme BN temps at some point in the weeks following.

Hoping for the Euro solution which takes the MJO low into 7, then COD 8. Those two areas were -4 and -6 respectively for Atlanta per GaWx. So likely as cold or moreso here.

The EPS looks to get the Aleutian Low going. Very hopeful that comes to pass, as it normally propagates a neutral or +PNA. Cross polar flow showing up too. No idea if we can pull off a frozen event but if all that comes to pass I'll be surprised if we don't. We have only had a favorable pattern in January a handful of times in the 2000s. All but one worked out really well. The one that didn't was just bone chilling cold with one minor snow event imby. Ice was 6 inches thick on the creeks near here. That was Dec 2017 into January 2018 when the storm track was suppressed and the deep south cashed in multiple times.

After looking, December of 65 wasn't as warm as I thought but mostly because the last few days of November into early December were frigid. The lowest temps for Dec were the first two days of the month. It went very warm with a few cool days into the end of the month. January came in super warm. It was 60s and 50s for the high and low New Years and the next day. Similar to today's temps. By January 5th the PNA went from negative to positive and the NAO/AO went negative and the bottom fell out temp wise and snow piled up. 15-20 inches in the last two weeks of January 1966. That was in a strong Nino year, which is normally not good for winter here but blocking up top overwhelms the ENSO state some years, for good or ill and winter doesn't behave like it would in an average year with that ENSO. This year the Aleutian block is so far west compared to normal Nina, it's overwhelming the pattern and not allowing normal Nina behavior.

Looking back at 2015, it was a Nino acting more like a Nina out west. Bone dry in So Cal, wet and cold in the Pac NW. The Pacific was driving the pattern regardless of ENSO. The pattern change started showing up on models around Dec 30th or so and finally arrived by mid-month. The Pac became more favorable and we had a nice 2 weeks of winter, a relaxation and then more winter in February. Saw another year I'm going to look more into. Dec 1965 was also warm I believe, before something changed and Jan 1966 was major winter here.

I'm all for Jax or someone starting a new thread for 2022 since this one is a few years old now. Thanks to you guys who are good at severe, I'm not a severe expert by any means and I always read your stuff when it's looking likely.

LaNina, if I recall correctly, usually would see more clippers and northern stream energy that gives us snow chances. The SOI stuff makes sense. The West is seeing Nino conditions in California. All I saw all fall was the drought was going to accelerate in So Cal due to the Nina. It's being eaten away instead. Massive snow pack is building and the Lower elevations are getting frequent rain. The upper Midwest definitely isn't seeing Nina conditions either. Nor are the mountain west states. Areas from Montana to Wisconsin that would normally be well BN in a Nina are +4 to +6 this December. So far December temps in the area are similar to December 1984/December 2015. Both saw the patten flip in January and ended up being pretty decent to legendary winters. Weather patterns don't often lock in for 3 months in a row in winter with no shake ups at all. Hopefully we can get the Pacific a bit more favorable as models are suggesting.

Merry Christmas everyone. We may be the smallest weather forum but we have some of the best posters around. I appreciate you all and via this forum, communicate with many of you more than some of my family! Some of you guys post less frequently and some seem to have disappeared. I truly hope you're all just taking a break from the weather and are healthy and happy with life. I look forward to actually getting some cold and a winter storm threat, that's when this place really springs to life. I think we will see that arrive in January and February.

The La Nina isn't yet behaving quite like a typical La Nina. Southern California should be BN for precip during La Nina. The Los Angeles area after today already has their normal or even above normal monthly rainfall and they are expected to get rain for 4 more days through New Years Eve. The HP that typically is in the N. Pac during a Nina is further NW than normal and that's allowing the downstream trough to be below Southen California instead of further inland. I've seen some bad winter as a snow lover but never in my life have I seen a winter that didn't have at least a few weeks of winter weather sprinkled into it.

Neutral.

To find hope, go back to 2015/16. December was very warm, unendingly so it seemed. We had two severe weather threads in December. Our first winter storm threat wasn't until mid-January and it fizzled at the last minute. Then winter unleashed over the next 30 or so days.

Unfortunately that's 2020, and that February was quite bleak.

Turned into a monster winter storm for the deep south. Looks 2018ish.

GFS is cooking something up inside d10 now. This trough is heading in at D9 and west coast ridging is popping. That low is spreading winter weather across Texas.

0z EPS wasn't bad. Cold arrives as we approach hr 300, potential overrunning set up unfolding around then. Most of the country outside Florida was BN as deep cold from the west pressed towards us. Hopefully it continues to progress in time. There also seems to be some debate on where the MJO has been. The CPC has had it in 7 for a while now. The Australians have had it in 6 and it seems to have barely crossed into 7 the last couple of days. The weather is definitely more reflective of 6.

We've had two really warm overall days. I've still managed 25 or below for the low 11 days this month with one more day at 29. Had two days with 50 for the low and another with 48. Two days of +18 and one +16. Overall +5 for the month. December 1984 was +9. It's maybe the warmest December of my lifetime here that I recall.

Around here not being too cold and not snowing is seasonal. Those days are generally out of the ordinary here. Especially at lower elevations where most people live. Down here we have to hope for the exceptions to go our way. It's been cloudy and 40s/20s today and yesterday was a bit cooler than today. Those are seasonal for here.

Not had time to look, but a ridge SE of the Aleutians, closer to the Gulf of Alaska is Nina climo vs one hanging out in the Central and Western Aleutians.

December 1984 (there have been multiple happenings this late fall and early winter that have lined up with 1984/85) was as unrelenting a torch as we've seen in December. It continued into early January too. New Years Day came in around 70 degrees across the area. There were 15 days of +15 or more days between December 10th and early January with only 1 day BN in a 3+ week stretch. When the pattern flipped, it flipped hard and we know what happened after. As I said a few weeks go, if the cold is still weeks away by mid January I'll feel less good, but still note we've seen severe cold and winter weather outbreaks arrive in February.

One positive, BAMWx is almost universally incorrect in long range forecasting. I'll be stunned if it doesn't get cold and snow at some point. My worst winter ever is around 5 inches of snow. The first day of winter is waaaaaaaaaaaay too early to cancel winter.

Webber was posting yesterday that to look for any movement in the Aleutian Ridge to see winter unleashed. He said it didn't even matter which direction it moved, as long as it did it would change the longwave pattern and send cold East.