John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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Our odd quarter offense is like a happy hour NAM run at 60 hours. It goes fast and goes big. I expect two or three big runs from it the GFS from now til early Saturday then we will either see all modeling on board or the collapse into a regular frontal passage.
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Expecting snow showers/flurries. I'd be overjoyed at this point to even get the inch or so the Canadian suite is advertising.
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This would be the all time bad snow hole.
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RGEM is trying. Looks pretty good for the Mid-State down into Miss and N Alabama.
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The RGem isn't too far off the NAM/GFS either.
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If it shows that on Friday we could be in business.
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That can work here too. Canadian cold is still very cold for here even when it's AN there. We had a good winter or two in the last 10 years with a very warm Canada. Seems like 2010-11 was one. Snowed all winter here without ever getting below about 8 degrees on the coldest day.
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Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
John1122 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
No sooner do I post that than I read Kennedy Chandler and Fulkerson are out. -
Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
John1122 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Really hope we are healthy tonight. Heard Fulkerson and one James are ill but apparently not covid related, as they traveled to Alabama. Kessling just said they were game time decisions basically. -
EPO can drive not just cold, but extreme cold, into the area. Pipe bursting kind of stuff. It drove -15 degree weather into the forum area in late February a few years ago. It was persistent once established and drove sub zero air here in January and February as it swept air from Siberia over the pole and downward. Had a lot of frozen precip across the whole forum area from it too.
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I'll be curious about where it goes with this over the next few runs.
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The GFS is still chugging for anafrontal snow Sunday night. The UK is downright aggressive with deep South snow in Mississippi in that time-frame. If I recall correctly the GFS found and kept the Christmas Eve anafrontal last year. Eventually others joined it. The Canadian ticked up a bit from 12z as well. The GFS has a second wintery system later in the run at D9. Looks like we are the battle ground area with extreme cold to our north and extreme warmth to our south. I generally will take that, as cold almost always pushes further south than modeled. One of my nice snows last year was modeled to be rain and 46 shortly before it happened but the cold pushed all the way to the Apps and it was low 30s and snow here. To add on about what Carvers says about January, it was AN for the month here last year and I managed 4 accumulating snow events. I believe a better early January pattern picture will emerge after these two big storms sort themselves out over the next few days.
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That's much closer to a classic Nina H placement. If the MJO is in 8, it should force the high even more East.
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I'm hoping the Euro is correct and the MJO is moving through 8 in mid January. That should promote a favorable PNA going forward. The GFS is lost imo on where the MJO has been and its been lost for a while. The GFS seems to think it crossed through 8 for several days this month. No other MJO modeling shows that. It also had it on the edge of 7/8 when others had it in 6.
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I was just nothing how remarkably similar this December has been to 1984. I don't think we are going to see -20s in January. We do stand a very good chance at cooling down in steps. It was baby steps in 1985. We were very warm 1-2, seasonal 3-5, back AN by the 8th, cold by mid-month, then the bottom fell out for a week from the 19-25th or so, which saw the temp shoot up into the 40s before another front crashed temps to close the month. Where we live it's very hard to have a pattern that doesn't see temps warm in advance of fronts. Staying below freezing for more than 6 or 7 days in a row here is very rare territory. The biggest thing we are seeing is that the pattern looks to shift from endless warmth. If we get a cooperative Pacific I'm pretty happy, come what may after that. It would even be nice to see more of a La Nina pattern develop. We need snow cover and cold air in the Dakotas and Minnesota/Iowa to really get good shots of cold here. All that looks to be underway soon.
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More commonalities between this December and 1984. Parts of Alaska are setting record highs. The previous records were set in late December 1984.
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GFS is back south and more in line with the Euro. Pretty good run from Memphis to Tri on the first snow event.
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We are gonna be in model madness for a while. Hopefully the Sunday into Monday event works out for at least some of us. It's often the case the last few pattern changes that models show a good snow event that doesn't quite work but the next system usually does after the cold gets properly sampled. I believe that has happened twice in the last 5 years.
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I love a great Pacific set up. Also very interested in the next weekend event with the Euro on board. Sure it will change 100 times between now and then on the various models but I like that all are keying on a near valley wide event. Models often struggle with the pattern after storms and once they pass things become more clear. Will have to see if that is the case with the GFS being so variable from run to run. The event this coming weekend is no surprise, as I'm going to Chattanooga for New Years and it's rare that there isn't at least a snow threat on models when I go there in a winter month.
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18z GFS drops the anafrontal hammer. Heavier version of last Christmas. Modeling is starting to show this to some extent on all suites. Nice to see something cooking inside d10 for a change.
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Mid-60s here two days in a row. It's even humid outside. Fortunately the temp is falling a bit now and it's 57 imby, so only about 14 degrees above where it would usually be on a late December late afternoon. I'll go back and look at some point, but it seems like every time we have extremely AN temps in late Dec or Early Jan we bounce back to extreme BN temps at some point in the weeks following.
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Hoping for the Euro solution which takes the MJO low into 7, then COD 8. Those two areas were -4 and -6 respectively for Atlanta per GaWx. So likely as cold or moreso here.
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The EPS looks to get the Aleutian Low going. Very hopeful that comes to pass, as it normally propagates a neutral or +PNA. Cross polar flow showing up too. No idea if we can pull off a frozen event but if all that comes to pass I'll be surprised if we don't. We have only had a favorable pattern in January a handful of times in the 2000s. All but one worked out really well. The one that didn't was just bone chilling cold with one minor snow event imby. Ice was 6 inches thick on the creeks near here. That was Dec 2017 into January 2018 when the storm track was suppressed and the deep south cashed in multiple times.
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After looking, December of 65 wasn't as warm as I thought but mostly because the last few days of November into early December were frigid. The lowest temps for Dec were the first two days of the month. It went very warm with a few cool days into the end of the month. January came in super warm. It was 60s and 50s for the high and low New Years and the next day. Similar to today's temps. By January 5th the PNA went from negative to positive and the NAO/AO went negative and the bottom fell out temp wise and snow piled up. 15-20 inches in the last two weeks of January 1966. That was in a strong Nino year, which is normally not good for winter here but blocking up top overwhelms the ENSO state some years, for good or ill and winter doesn't behave like it would in an average year with that ENSO. This year the Aleutian block is so far west compared to normal Nina, it's overwhelming the pattern and not allowing normal Nina behavior.
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Looking back at 2015, it was a Nino acting more like a Nina out west. Bone dry in So Cal, wet and cold in the Pac NW. The Pacific was driving the pattern regardless of ENSO. The pattern change started showing up on models around Dec 30th or so and finally arrived by mid-month. The Pac became more favorable and we had a nice 2 weeks of winter, a relaxation and then more winter in February. Saw another year I'm going to look more into. Dec 1965 was also warm I believe, before something changed and Jan 1966 was major winter here.
