John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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I honestly can't figure out why Morgan isn't in the WSW. Nor can I figure the WWA for the Mid-State, which looks to be the bullseye in Tennessee. The forecast even calls for warning level snow there. I'd think a WSW is the more fitting product instead of a WWA they say they will probably upgrade to a Winter storm warning.
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Gonna roll with this forecast and keep my fingers crossed.
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06z GFS. Looks like the GFS and Euro are on the southern edge of guidance. NAM is on the northern edge and most of the other modeling is in the middle of those two camps.
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RGem is a slightly south version of the NAM. Stubborn rain/snow line along the southern tier of counties.
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Mountains/Plateau Winter Storm Watch from MRX.
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NAM just falls apart East of the Plateau. Not sure why and I don't believe it for a second. I think it's way to juiced in Western Kentucky. The 3k is going to be just as juiced almost but it's going to spread east and stay juiced.
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The NAM is fully NAMing western areas and Kentucky. Much more wound up and slower than the other models. Northern Middle into Kentucky are going to jackpot this run. Lots of freezing rain from Memphis NE along the bottom edge of the snow.
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06z HRRR has freezing rain along the south edge, especially in west and middle areas of the valley. Snow from HRRR
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Forums crashed again for a while there. The Euro is on board for everyone in the region almost. Freezing rain/sleet/light snow in the northern Gulf Coast states, at least an inch in basically all of Tennessee. The Canadian was another monster run for everyone. I would be pretty happy with 50-60 percent of the Canadian run.
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03z RAP, it's been the least generous to the far west. There's a model battle that way for sure.
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GFS gets the southern border involved.
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The RGEM is still nice. Just not as bonkers as 18z.
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RGEM was solid again. Especially for North of 40 into Kentucky. Think we are seeing the classic N trend.
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3k ends up here. Way way better than the near blank it fired out on WVLT at 6pm.
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The 3k is going to be much much better than 18z. All are mostly quirks of the modeling. The basic idea of a near statewide snow event are still there. I'd think a general 2-4 inches with some big winners and a few who don't do as well, like always.
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NAM is amped early, slows down, dumps west of the Plateau, north of 40, then weakens as it does a weird handoff and the East doesn't do quite as well, but still does okay. Like a better version of its 06z run this morning.
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NAM is gonna be a weird run. Had a low up near Asheville at 45, then it was back in NE Georgia at 48.
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I don't know why, models started doing the streaks last year with the Christmas storm.
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21z RAP. Looks much better for Western areas this run. Still snowing in the far east at this frame.
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Well, now I know the WVLT house model.
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It turned cold in mid February and there was a winter storm basically every week until March 6th. There was snow on snow, ice on snow and a monster snow event in Middle and West Tennessee that saw people there get 12+ with some near blizzard conditions. There was a lot of sub zero cold too.
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WVLT's house model must be the Hinkin 2000. Their model shows 3/10ths total in Crossville, 2/10ths in Oneida, 3/10ths in Knox, 7/10ths here. The met for them noted the South Valley dry slot would get Knoxville and south, so not much below Knox. I'm honestly not sure that he even believes what he's saying but he says it anyway.
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The NAM is usually amped which means it has the most prominent warm nose.
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MRX first call map.
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From OHX for Mid State. 215 PM CST Tue Jan 4 2022 ...Significant Snowfall Likely Thursday into Thursday Evening... A storm system moving over the region will bring snow to the mid- state once again Thursday and Thursday evening. The precipitation may start as a mix early, with even minor ice accumulation south of I-40. But it should quickly change to all snow, and end rapidly in the early evening. Amounts at this point look to range from around one half inch southwest to as much a 4 inches along the Upper Cumberland. This snow will be followed by frigid temperatures on Friday. Check back often for later updates as snowfall amounts are subject to change.
