John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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Netflix worked. Fatties are ripping.
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It's snowing in LaFollette and Jellico under that green.
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It was doing that here about 15 minutes before sleet/graupel started falling. The changeover happened here at 36.8.
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After about 20 minutes it started sticking to cars/decks etc. Finally starting to overcome the graupel and get pure snow. Hoping the rates/flake size comes up soon. Been watching a show on Netflix for the last half hour. Gonna check back after I finish. Watched pot theory on the snow rate.
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When frozen started falling the temperature dropped 3 degrees in 10 minutes. It's stabilized since. 80 percent snow/20 percent sleet and graupel right now. Nickel and dime sized flakes currently.
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Just changed over to heavy snow/sleet combined. 36 degrees.
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It's absolutely pouring here. We are going to have flooding with snow on it if we actually get the change over and get anything. After watching the MRX video, not sure if I actually get anything frozen or not really.
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We are now casting at this stage. The models are just making a guess and the short range models change every hour. One blip may mean something big then be gone next run. I'll say what I always say in these situations, know your backyard climo and it's probably going to work out for you as well as any model at this point. We are having some thunder here.
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The very worst part of any rain to snow system is the wait. We had one last year and it seemed to take forever.
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Rain finally picked up here. Just drove home and it has that splattery look to it. It's 43 degrees though, so I expect the 11pm or later changeover.
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Just got home from Hixon. It was 57 when I left there but you could feel the cooler air moving in then. It's 46 here at home. Hopefully I'm not stuck in the middle, too far east for the transferring low and too far west for the trowel.
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I couldn't be more baffled by the NWS disco from MRX and BNA. They mention several inches of snow possibly melting by day break with a low in the low to mid 20s? The ground is warm but if that happens it will be something I have never seen, even in April snow events. I don't know what they are looking at to bump totals in some areas but suppress totals in others. Especially around Crossville/Central Plateau which is showing up with 4-7 inches across basically all guidance.
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Latest RAP. You can see the lighter areas south of Frozenhead/Cross Mtn and South of High Knob that Daniel Boone mentioned. Even they are filling in as we go forward. Looks like the sleet area is about 1 County wide in western areas with heavy snow right behind that.
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The 17z HRRR is also coming in a bit less snow holey but it still has some of them. Overall it's a pretty good run for us. I actually think they could be under modeling the NW quadrant for such a track so close to the mountains.
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Final Euro call.
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17z RAP further closed snow holes except right over Chattanooga. Looks more uniform across the state.
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16z RAP closing the snow hole a bit. It's still snowing in the East at this time.
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I'd guess it's more what Holston says. Down sloping off Cross Mountain and Frozenhead when a LP takes a certain angle.
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I've seen the snow hole you're referring to play out several times before. I'm not 100 percent sure what causes it. It really tends to hit Anderson County.
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06z GFS and 09z RAP are just huge. The RAP gets us all.
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Very rare sight, the entire forum area is under winter weather products this morning except for far NE Arkansas. Looks like every county in Tennessee is under a WWA or WSW. In addition to the not from above, MRX disco did mention they may need to expand the WSW to the west.
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Lots of warnings and advisories issued by MRX. They are basically saying this is an East based event. Winter Storm Warning for areas East of Knox. Have my area with less snow than Knox and central Valley areas. Possible for sure but it definitely doesn't line up with most modeling for the Plateau vs the valley.
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The final 06z NAM map may quite literally get everyone who posts here. Memphis, NE Arkansas, SWVa, North Miss, North Alabama, Chattanooga, SE Kentucky, we all got snow with it.
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Under 24 hours and the NAM is also holding steady. The exact areas of heaviest snow will move around some but it looks like we are all in line for fast and furious thumping. I expect the issuance of winter products with the morning package
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I will be stunned if they aren't but man I sure hope they are right or even 50 percent right.
