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John1122

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  1. John1122
    As long as it's not strong, we are in decent shape, especially further west you go. If you take out 2011-2012 which was just an epic warm year everywhere when the Nina acted opposite of normal, every where west of the Apps are normal to below normal for winter in moderate and weak Nina's. Strong and we are almost universally AN. This doesn't have last years either which was moderate and near or BN from the Plateau to Oklahoma, all the way to the Gulf.
  2. John1122
    It won't be a strong Nina most likely. I doubt it's more than weak. A strong has never followed a moderate nina and a moderate only followed a moderate once ever.
  3. John1122
    You are in a good spot in a Nina. It's not warm from the Plateau west and the further west the better. Mod/Weak Nina is probably BN on average for Northern Arkansas.
  4. John1122
    1993 redux??
  5. John1122
    I have basically no faith in seasonal models. A gulf of Alaska low would generally not be La Nina climo. I believe that normally features a high pressure just south of Alaska off western Canada. Low pressure out there generally is an El Nino feature.
  6. John1122
    That I could find there hasn't been a SSW earlier than late November recorded. I believe the person I saw talking about it was saying late November/early December was the hinted time frame but as mentioned, that's just pure spitballing off some very long range modeling that was showing rapid 10mb warming there later in November.
  7. John1122
    Nov '58 had a SSW Dec '58 was -5 to -7 across the state, January '59 was around -3. Early Dec '65 had an SSW Jan '66 was -6 to -8 across the area, Feb '66 was -2 to -3 Nov '68 had a SSW Dec '68 was -5 to -7 across the area, and January '69 was around -3 Dec '81 had a SSW Jan '82 was -5 to -7 in the area Feb '82 was cold from the Plateau and west at around -3 to -5 but near normal far east Dec '87 had a SSW Jan '88 was -4 to -6 in the area, Feb '88 was -3 to -5 Dec '98 had a SSW that produced no wintery effects here, temps were AN the next two months. Those are the only Nov/Dec events that I can find listed. The 1985 event was underway in late December but peaked on Jan 1st 1985. Some happen to late to matter much for winter here, but most of them seemed to produce some really cold temps and snow chances. A few, like 1998, were complete duds.
  8. John1122
    Models were hinting at a SSW event in late November or Early December. That could pay dividends in January if it comes to pass. Salt boulders with that one too.
  9. John1122
    Heavy, soaking rains, especially the last two hours. Just what we needed with fire and leaf season on the door step.
  10. John1122
    Looks like boring weather will prevail the next couple of weeks. Mostly slightly AN temps overall with a cool shot or two to keep it seasonal. Some rain might get thrown into the mix with slight probs of N to AN precip in the area. As long as it's not uber dry and the fire danger is under control, I will take whatever comes the first half of the month and be happy with it, hopefully the leaves keep responding. Reds and yellows are peeking out now and one tree I saw yesterday was about half red already.
  11. John1122
    Got down to 41 this morning. Beautiful last two days. 60s yesterday and currently 66. Gonna be great football weather tonight.
  12. John1122
    Afternoon temps in the upper 50s with a few rogue showers. Feels like late October.
  13. John1122
    Quoting this one because the GFS handled this cool snap pretty well at D11/12.
  14. John1122
    Hadn't kept up with the forecast for today apparently. Last I saw was a 30 percent chance of scattered storms. Instead it rained steady for around 4 hours earlier. Stayed cloudy and misty the rest of the day.
  15. John1122
    It's out in fantasy land but the GFS is advertising highs in the 50s and the first frost in the area in late September. I remember a few Septembers with light frosts before. Huge grain of salt with it that far out though.
  16. John1122
    Heavy rain earlier but a sharp cutoff south of the Cumberlands. Went down to town and transitioned from rain running down the highway and large puddles to stone dry pavement in about 100 yards as I cleared the mountains through Big Creek Gap.
  17. John1122
    50 this morning. It was down to 65 in my house around 8am.
  18. John1122
    My highest point and click is 86 over the next week. I don't see much on the 12z modeling that suggests any just crazy temperatures. Also grain of salt, but the GFS is advertising the first major cold front of fall in about 11 days or so. Looks like high temps would be in the 50s and 60s with lows in the upper 30s or low 40s.
  19. John1122
    I'm not sure what happened in the 60s but it was a mini-ice age. Every winter then was cold/snowy it seems like.
  20. John1122
    Dacula Weather has these handy maps to look at regarding the QBO. It's better as a rule if it is falling through winter. But those forecasts above would generally be good news according to these reanalysis maps. https://www.daculaweather.com/4_qbo_index.php
  21. John1122
    The GFS looks way hotter in about a week over the Ark/La/Tex than the Euro or Canadian. The GFS is throwing out stuff about 10f hotter than those two. Oklahoma is over 110 in spots on the GFS. That heat bubbles into Memphis with 102 there. It's a big outlier right now so I have my doubts about its record heat coming to pass.
  22. John1122
    52 degrees this morning. It felt spectacular.
  23. John1122
    Day one of met fall, highs in the 70s, humidity fell through the day. Hard to beat after the heat, humidity and rain that ended met summer.
  24. John1122
    This is my second favorite long range thread each year. 60 degrees out there right now and the humidity is non-existent compared to the last two weeks of drippy weather. Was looking forward to heading down to Lenoir City to actually enjoy the best weather of the young high school football season but they had to forfeit due to covid issues. BN temps and BN precip is the forecast for the 6-10 and 8-14 day CPC outlooks. As long as it's not hot and dry I'll take it. I always want to get through leaf season without a wildfire near my house, but about 2 or 3 of every 10 years they get pretty close. Last year the leaves got out of dodge here pretty fast. They were completely gone by Halloween. I went to Johnson City the first week of November and they were still awesome there. The black gum tree in my yard has had some red leaves for about a week now and the sycamore has been dropping leaves like fall already. My windshield was plastered with yellow leaves from it during the rain yesterday.
  25. John1122
    4.8 inches since the start yesterday, it's been heavy and steady this evening and it's coming down pretty hard right now. Was at a high school volleyball match earlier and the gym roof started leaking in multiple places during the game. Lots of water on the roof. There was high water in the school parking lot just trying to leave there.
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