John1122

These are the MJO phase posts I've been talking about. I misremembered about phase 8, it's the coldest at low amplitude per GAWX. 7 isn't bad though. According to Larry(GAWX) over a 40 year period in January in Atlanta while he's been a weather observer. He said 7-8 low amp are his favorite for winter temps in the Southeast but that 1-2 were also good. The graphic is Webber's NC snow event chart by phase/ENSO. The drivers can be much different for the other side of the Apps, but cold often arrives here before there. Occasionally they can get CAD when we have cold rain.

Modeling run to run beyond D8 is rarely stable, I'm surprised it's not been more volatile to be honest. Small things have big consequences down the road that far so it's not shocking at all to see them moving around a lot. Yes, phase 7 low amp was -4 in Atlanta. 8-2 were something like -1 or -2. In low amp, around the COD, even 6 was BN.

If you look at the GAWX post, it's all about the amplitude. Lower in Phase 7 was the coldest in January of all MJO phases for Atlanta. They normally get cold via the same way we do except for very extreme CAD.

As I expected a week ago, the GFS was trying to bring the pattern change too quickly and the Euro, with basically no pattern change at all on the Weeklies was delaying too much. As of now, the extended ensembles on all modeling has a potent, well placed NAO, a good Pacific set up, and very cold air on tap for our side of the world. Lots of BN heights across the lower 48 with reds where we want them. As Carvers mentioned, we don't often have that many things going correctly. Some of the times we had a cooperative Atlantic, and Pacific in a La Nina was 1995-96, and 1984-1985. We are definitely having a torchy December ala 1984.

Webb noted the EPS is struggling with the -NAO still. It's very hard to have that and a SE Ridge. The best thing about right now, is that winter hasn't really started for any of us yet. We can get snow in December but it's much less common than the months to come. We are still a solid month away from the beginning of prime snow/cold climatology for the area. If we are at January 10th, have received nothing and still hoping for a SSW or some kind of blocking to actually happen we might be in trouble, but even then we've had later winters that turned severe. I believe the aforementioned 2015 had a cold shot around New Years then warmed for a long stretch before mid February brought about 2 weeks of the most brutal winter conditions many of us had experienced since the mid 1990s.

Curious to see if the weeklies have changed. Saw some tweets earlier that they are performing horribly so far this fall and early winter, having completely missed several troughs/cold shots. Carvers has noted they struggle as the seasons change. Will have to see if they stabilize at some point and start actually coming close.

GFS was awesome that run. The Rex Block Jax mentioned is there over Alaska. Banter really, but heading into Christmas eve.

The CFS is crazy cold for January. We'd be rocking some 1970s winter if it was right.

Leaves have been gone here a couple of weeks but the rain was nice to get them good and soaked again. After being massively above normal through July, we finally had some BN rainfall months lately. Nothing severe here but some of the loudest thunder in a while. Must have had a really close cloud to ground strike.

With the still falling QBO, the pattern we've experience in the past when it was below -20 in winter months, the correlation between that and BN winters during Ninas, the cold November to winter correlation and the fact that our source region looks to be very cold, I think we flip cold at some point for an extended time. However, we have also seen a lot of climo that behaves the opposite of normal lately, so I'm certainly not confident.

This is why op runs will keep bouncing around the next few days, likely from one extreme to the other. Seems like that is often a precursor to a major pattern change, which the GFS at times seems to rush and the Euro at times seems to delay.

Also wanted to add, I know we have a few posters that are very near the track area. I hope you guys and your family are okay.

Investigation by the NWS to see if the huge tornado super cell was one continuous track or if it lifted at times and respawned new ones. If it's one tornado it will remove the tri-state tornado from the record books as longest single track on record.

Looked like the 06z had a storm like Carvers mentioned, a low pops on an Arctic front and moves up through the Piermont and there's a statewide snow event to ring in the first day of winter.

From what Larry noted, we apparently do want it to hit the COD in 8. He said it was even more wintry if it hit the COD there and went counterclockwise into 7.

Saw a post from GAWx/Larry, who is an encyclopedia of weather history. He noted for Atlanta (and likely here by extension here, though we aren't always cold in the same way) that the MJO in low amplitude/near or just inside the cod phase 8 was the absolute coldest for the area in January. It was -6, -4 in low Ph 7, -3 in low 1,2, and 3. Surprisingly, phase 6 cod/low was -2. Oddly, phase 7 high amplitude was -1 in Jan, normal in phase 8 high, and above average in all other phases in high amplitude. 4/5 were above normal low or high but way above normal high 5.

I seem to recall that 14-15 had big event winter for nearly everyone and several for some of us. It's the year of collapsed boat docks here due to heavy snow and ice that came in several waves. Knox had a 6 inch snow and a monster ice storm. Chattanooga had a 6+ storm. West Tennessee had blizzard conditions and widespread 12 inch snows. Nashville may have missed out, but I know they got 3 inches in the 1st week of March event.

Not in any way saying this will repeat but weak Nina 1984 saw November start warm, then turn really cold late month. Same thing happened this year. November was -2.6 here in 1984, -3.1 here this year. December 1984 had a few chilly days around the 8th, with some light snow, then it torched and finished +7 for the month. There was a little light snow and chilly temps today and it's supposed to get really reallywarm the next couple of weeks. The CFS is showing what would be below 0 cold for the valley in January. 99.9 percent sure it's a coincidence but patterns repeat even if extremes don't.

It started as micro flakes and after about 10 minutes it went to a full on light snow shower.

Flakes achieved. Welcome winter 2021-22.

The QBO was still falling at the end of November. It's down to -15.92, from -14.52 in October. That should still help us out if it continues downward as winter unfolds.

Looks like some snow showers are knocking on the door. Should be over my area in 10-20 minutes by looking at the radar. Fingers crossed.

GFS and Canadian are back on the possible rain to snow event heading into next weekend. GFS is Plateau and East Tennessee based. Much more widespread across the state on the Canadian. See if the Euro comes back on board too.

All overnight models have an Eastern Valley snow event. The Euro was the biggest of them all and got the mid Valley involved as well.

Potent front on the 00z GFS in about 8 days. 30 degree temp drops and back side snow with cold catching and undercutting the storm.