John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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Slightly less amped, slightly less SW to NE angle from the NAM. Basically came in line with the RGEM from 18z.
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HRRR really dumps on the mid-State. Basically unchanged elsewhere vs 18z. I expect Middle Tennessee to be under a Winter Storm Warning soon if the rest of the 0z suite comes in this way.
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Tennessee's offense is like watching that December pattern day after day.
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It's much better than it was yesterday. Especially for Southern and Western areas. It's somewhat better for eastern areas.
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The least likely occurrence that MRX mentions even for my area is that we start as snow, switch to rain, then back to snow. It's extremely rare to switch back and forth in a continual cooling situation like this should be.
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Often on the edge of rain you see the heaviest snow fall.
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Pretty big freezing rain event in North Miss and North Alabama. I assume there may be some sleet in the areas below the snow cover and above the ZR.
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Still snowing in NE TN and parts of SWVa at this time.
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RGEM is gonna be nice to everyone except the southern border counties.
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RGem is coming in a bit south and slightly weaker than the NAM.
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Bell is 4-6 inches across all modeling. The axis of the heaviest snow is furthest NW in the 12k 18z NAM. It's more wound up and comes across at more of an angle. The NAM is notorious for overamping systems. Where the NAM does hit the hardest, its showing much heavier snow than all other models. I personally don't believe it will be correct.
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The 12k NAM remains the very northern/slower guidance here. The 3k is slightly better than the 12k. I'll be curious to see where the remainder of 18z goes. The HRRR was better than the NAM.
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You seem to be in a golden spot for 6-8 inches.
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What?? "However, 12Z models have shown a substantial increase in qpf. This could translate to snow amounts pushing over 4 to maybe 6 inches for areas along and north of I-40 and this would require a Winter Storm Warning. Our reason for keeping the advisory in place is the sudden jump in model qpf." Models have been showing 4-6 inches in northern Middle and the plateau for days on end. Not sure where this "sudden jump" talk came from.
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That's actually warning criteria for MRX, so may as well take it as a warning.
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I'm consistently around the 6" number across all modeling. I always feel like I never want to be there the day before.
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I honestly can't figure out why Morgan isn't in the WSW. Nor can I figure the WWA for the Mid-State, which looks to be the bullseye in Tennessee. The forecast even calls for warning level snow there. I'd think a WSW is the more fitting product instead of a WWA they say they will probably upgrade to a Winter storm warning.
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Gonna roll with this forecast and keep my fingers crossed.
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06z GFS. Looks like the GFS and Euro are on the southern edge of guidance. NAM is on the northern edge and most of the other modeling is in the middle of those two camps.
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RGem is a slightly south version of the NAM. Stubborn rain/snow line along the southern tier of counties.
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Mountains/Plateau Winter Storm Watch from MRX.
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NAM just falls apart East of the Plateau. Not sure why and I don't believe it for a second. I think it's way to juiced in Western Kentucky. The 3k is going to be just as juiced almost but it's going to spread east and stay juiced.
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The NAM is fully NAMing western areas and Kentucky. Much more wound up and slower than the other models. Northern Middle into Kentucky are going to jackpot this run. Lots of freezing rain from Memphis NE along the bottom edge of the snow.
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06z HRRR has freezing rain along the south edge, especially in west and middle areas of the valley. Snow from HRRR
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Forums crashed again for a while there. The Euro is on board for everyone in the region almost. Freezing rain/sleet/light snow in the northern Gulf Coast states, at least an inch in basically all of Tennessee. The Canadian was another monster run for everyone. I would be pretty happy with 50-60 percent of the Canadian run.
