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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    That's very unusual, it would definitely be something to experience.
  2. John1122
    Looks like back in Nebraska and Kansas where models besides the GFS showed .5 to 1 inch, they ended up with 1-3 inches. That's if the snowfall maps can be believed, and we know from our own back yard they are very often wrong and virtually always on the low side of wrong.
  3. John1122
    In my experience with the DGZ that low and temps so cold, you get small ice crystals, even if the sky is blue. I don't recall ever seeing freezing mist at temps below 10.
  4. John1122
    I believe modeling is a simulated radar and I'm not sure it's equipped to handle snow falling that low in the atmosphere. We see that pretty often here, where the models have cleared things and snow showers linger one as the DGZ drops below radar.
  5. John1122
    No modeling caught this.
  6. John1122
    The 15Z HRRR tried to fill in some of the areas in the Valley with snow. It still has a snow hole there but it's much smaller than it was even at 14z.
  7. John1122
    I usually like the RGEM but it's on something. At hour 27 it has rain over my area with single digit temps. The temp was in the 20s at hour 24, so no way it's a 3 hour average ptype. It has snow to my west, rain over me and snow to my east.
  8. John1122
    Looks like the Euro coming in with accumulation was enough to get MRX on board to issue a WWA. The added heavy snow wording to my forecast. They also lowered temps. My forecast is -3 tomorrow night with a high of 3 Friday.
  9. John1122
    HRRR is faster with the cold. At 1am tomorrow it has me in the single digits. The 3k NAM has me in the 20s.
  10. John1122
    Had a sleet to rain transition there.
  11. John1122
    That Euro was it's snowiest in days since before it was showing a cutter.
  12. John1122
    12z GFS forecast for there.
  13. John1122
    This was today's 12z Euro run for there.
  14. John1122
    No idea if it means anything for here, but the Euro is badly missing on snowfall in Southern Nebraska and Northern Kansas. At 00z last night it was giving 1 inch in those areas, 1.5 inches at 12z. They are looking at 3-4+ with 3 hours of blizzard conditions. This is the current OBS there. Their NWS said 3 additional inches look possible.
  15. John1122
    The GFS had a crazy sharp cut off on a storm last year in a similar place and it happened. I got 5 or 6 inches and Eastern Campbell and Western Claiborne got about an inch. But that was a case where it was snow or rain. There was plenty of precjp around. It was just a ptype issue.
  16. John1122
    3z RAP was a little better than the 21z.
  17. John1122
    The GFS does have support from the HRRR and the HRW hi res model.
  18. John1122
    It's amazing how much of a carbon copy of the 18z it was with its snowfall map. At this point its either crazy or a genius with very little in between.
  19. John1122
    The snow maps honestly look like the Cumberlands in many runs, are acting like the Smokies normally do with snow dying out in Western NC.
  20. John1122
    A half inch to 5+ is my modeled range 48 hours out. That's how crazy this system is.
  21. John1122
    Gonna choose to hug the HRRR for now. The higher the resolution the model, the better for mby. It may be finding the low atmosphere level snow better. These are simulated radar runs and snow will be falling from atmosphere levels lower than the radar can find in some cases.
  22. John1122
    The craziest thing to me is my high is predicted to be 6 Friday for the daytime, and 14 for Saturday but nothing below 0. Rare to get daytime highs in the single numbers and stay above 0.
  23. John1122
    I think a lot of models are slowing the cold up as it hits the western Plateau, just enough for the moisture to race away from the front.
  24. John1122
    MRX has been referring to this as December cold not seen in decades. 2014 and 2015 had -10s across a lot of the area. But that was Jan and Feb.
  25. John1122
    The NAM is working towards the GFS. The 12k is getting snow into East Tennessee now.
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