John1122

The Canadian went from being entirely north of almost all of Tennessee to making a run at breaking Nashville's all time storm record.

Canadian is just pummeling the mid-state at hour 90.

Through 54 the Canadian is about 50 miles SE of 12z.

GFS is well south and east again vs earlier runs from today when it took the low up into Kentucky on its way to a hand off. Still on the northern edge of guidance and very amped which was a Para bias as mentioned earlier. I wouldn't be surprised if the Canadian is the furthest north suite here at 00z. But I'd guess it's still south of its 12z run the LP crossing Tennessee.

The snow shield is better deeper into the south vs 18z. Deeper into Alabama. The random snow hole over Roane and Loudon County, may be some kind of downsloping off the Plateau. Globals struggle with placement of it though. But if you live in an area that gets downsloping in these events, know it's possible.

GFS buries 40 corridor and North. Gets below 40 in the mid-State as 40 gets furthest north at Nashville.

RGEM was faster, slightly further south too. It was just smashing West Tennessee. Looks like a front end thump/rain then a back side blitz.

The ICON, from all I've read, has a warm bias. The NAM/ICON are in the almost Miller A camp. Will have to see how it goes the next few days still. I can see plenty of big changes all the way to the event. For areas that get snow, you may see huge silver dollar flakes that just plaster everything. For the non elevated or more southern areas you may see monster flakes piling up fast and 10 miles away under lighter returns it may be raining. If this comes as it's being modeled today, the power grid will probably take a hit. There were a ton of outages here last January with a 4 or 5 inch paste event. Then more with the endless freezing fog. So hopefully my area has lost enough weak limbs and trees recently that the ones standing are doing okay. If these solutions are showing up Friday, I'd recommend anyone reading this get a back up heat source if you use electricity for heat. Just make sure it's a safe to use indoors set up. But this kind of snow threatens the power grid at about 3 inches, more than that and you will see widespread outages most likely.

18z Euro control may be seeing what he was talking about too. It was a good 150 miles SE of 12z.

His reasoning was that the 18z saw this, caused heights to bump up in the region and sent the storm further SE.

The 18z Euro Mean.

It should be none. WXBell claims to have separate maps for sleet, freezing rain and snow. For the most part, this is a snow or no situation for most of the forum region except maybe some parts of Kentucky, far NW or far NE. The Euro showed less than .01 zr and around .2 to .3 sleet at most.

The GEFS mean Wurbus was referring to.

I'm in the 40 percent chance of 12+ that GFS run. 11 from the Euro. Everything is fine. Not gonna bite.......

The slightly faster GFS gives the 50/50 less time to clear out, the result is boomage. Still overamped imo but nice to see the track coming towards it's ensembles and other guidance.

The best feature on the NAM to me is that 1037 H over Iowa. The Euro has a 1034 over Iowa as well. HP over Iowa is often a very good sign for a winter storm here.

It's frozen shield looked like it would evolve in similar fashion to the Euro had it continued.

WPC says they are using the Euro through D4, then the ensemble blend d5+.

I put very very little stock in it, but the JMA has the LP over Panama or Tallahassee area and 850s well south of the forum area.

The GFS is the more unbelievable outcome to me, just in the fact that it dumps close to 30 inches of snow in Western Kentucky. Those extremes rarely ever happen in the weather world. I'd guess right now it's just too amped, I honestly wonder if they didn't give it some of the NAM physics when they upgraded the resolution. We would see the Para just amp up and double up on QPF plenty of times before it became the normal op.

EPS Mean once more solid for the whole forum area basically. Snow still falling as of this moment Eastern half of the area.

We have more on our side currently than not. Won't affect which, if any, are correct but it's GFS/Canadian OP vs everything else right now for the most part.

I'm glad you started this. It's worthwhile to have regardless of the final outcome. Definitely an interesting model battle. I think we always tend to side with the models that don't show the most wintery outcome because we are used to that happening. If the Euro/UKIE/GEFS were showing nothing and the Canadian/GFS were showing a major winter storm we'd not believe it was happening either. I think we have several more days of model madness to come. The NAM will probably be amped and in Indiana.

The Euro, UKIE, GEFS, and somewhat the ICON are in the major winter weather camp, as of the 12z suite so far. Will see soon what the EPS/Control say.