John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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GEFS. MRX noted that they are currently favoring the ensembles as the OP is erratic. Right now it's the Euro/EPS/Control/UKIE/GEFS in one camp, and the GFS in another way out from them. The Canadian is sort of in between them.
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The GEFS moves the low from Texas to Central Mississippi,to Central Alabama, to S. Georgia/N. Florida, off the SC coast and up inside Hattaras. What we would expect with a big high dropping into the Upper Midwest behind and over the top of a storm and moving east above it.
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I don't even know what to say about the 06z GFS. The low travels NE from the ArkLaTex to NE Miss, drops SSE to Central Alabama, jumps way back NW to West Tennessee, bombs to 999 north of Nashville then hands off to SE NC. It would be the weirdest surface track in the history of a Winter Storm.
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Euro mean. It and the GEFS are pretty close to each other right now.
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The Euro control keeps firing bullets.. There's a 30 to 50 percent probability of greater than 6 inches of snow across a lot of areas in the state on the EPS probability map.
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The UKIE finally left the extreme suppression camp. It's been bad all year but who knows. I still think the GFS is off but maybe not. Just too many crazy things on it you never see happening.
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Canadian is similar to the GFS through 120. Just not as amped up and a bit further south with the transfer. As of the 00z runs, Western North Carolina is getting a massive winter storm, NW Tennessee has a very good shot, as does Western Kentucky. Outside of that, just gotta hope for the best.
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I don't believe any of it right now. I've never seen a storm move in a steep V pattern like that, then just ramble around for a long time while transferring from Nashville to Charlotte. I expect it'll be Friday before we have a good idea and maybe not then.
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GFS is about the same as 18z. Big front end thump for Eastern areas north of 40 and northwestern areas get clobbered. The mid-state gets rained on for the most part.
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18z Euro Control.
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GEFS Mean is still healthy most areas. We are still far enough out that the OP runs are gonna waffle. 06z or 12z, don't even remember right now, had me with bare ground almost. 18z has me with 8 inches. I believe Friday we will see things stabilize. The low will be climbing the coast by then.
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The 50/50 low moved up the coast a bit faster this run and was a bit more north. The storm came north as a result.
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We know there's gonna be a storm. Just no idea where yet. It's been a Miller B from the start just with a weird handoff to the south in a Miller A area instead of to the east like a traditional Miller B. In Miller A set ups we get a lot of our overrunning snow when a storm exits off Texas into the Gulf and sends precip NE. This one has been showing a thump on the northern path and it weakens near or over us on various runs before rolling again over the eastern areas. Still a huge hit north of 40. I expect it to waffle back and forth until late in the game and the storm moving over Thursday gets up the coast.
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The NAM is trying to give parts of TN, SE KY and SW Va an inch or two from the dry clipper that turns into the 50/50.
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This is going to be an odd one to resolve for a while yet. There's a storm ahead of it that bombs into a 50/50 low with a high over the top. Until that first storm resolves I don't think we know where it's going yet.
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The Euro is very closely following the GFS but a run or two behind. That looks a lot like the 06z GFS run.
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Gonna be a south of 40 special it looks like. I don't think I've ever seen a northern stream system drop in like this one.
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GFS is even further W and S at 06 and is gonna get Arkansas and blast Memphis too. Have to see how she heads East.
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Pretty good agreement that a 1-4 inch type system is possible for the weekend. Granted, we won't be sure until the last minute, as the track is more fickle with these systems than a slider type system where temps are the major issue and not the exact track of the low.
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Yes, both take a western path, then transfer to a coastal. The GFS made it further south and transferred further west so it was better for Tennessee. After the handoff it winds up NAM style and crushes the deep south from Georgia to the Carolinas. We need a SW trend to continue! With this type of storm the trend is far more likely to be NE with the initial low.
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That was an epic GFS run, I've never seen a storm take quite that path before and can't imagine this one will, but dang what a site it would be if it did.
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I meant -EPO.
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My favorite is a well positioned +EPO. It drives frigid cold down it's right flank. Last year it did it more from the Plateau, west. In 2015 it did it for most all of the East. Last year it was record cold in a lot of the South from Texas to Alabama and points North while the MJO hung around Phase 6.
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Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
John1122 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
8 arms to snow us. Hoping the cold front gets past here soon. Holding onto some snow still but it's being consumed quickly. -
A comparison to where the Euro takes us to some past 500mb looks. Feb 2015 Jan 1985 EPS 500mb for day 15, but has this look earlier.
