John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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Snow now falling. I'm at 35 degrees. I must have good upper levels compared to points south of here.
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The HRRR seems to really like 3000 feet or so on Cross Mountain.
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Radar has blue over me but nothing is hitting the ground yet.
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Euro managed to creep west with the next potential event. Still buries NC but has a 3-6+ from the West side of the Plateau East to the mountains. Super cold, high ratio snow if it happens like it was shown.
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Clarksville is snowing at 37.
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Canadian with next weekends system. GFS looked like this at 18z but is suppressed at 0z.
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34.5/32. Probably can't go much lower without precip causing the cooling. It's gonna be eternity waiting on the band behind the low and hoping it holds together as modeled.
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I would think that this one being an under the ocean eruption it probably didn't release as much ash and sulfur into the atmosphere as an eruption of that size otherwise would have. It was comparable in size to Mount Pinatubo which cooled global temps half a C.
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If the upper trough Nashville speaks about holds together longer, more people to the east will do better. They usually collapse when the parent low transfers.
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On days like today, southerly flow, cloudy, saturated atmosphere, the difference isn't as much normally.
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So far, it's overperforming everywhere. Parts of Iowa got 14-15 inches. I believe it had been showing 6-8 there. Unfortunately, past performance doesn't guarantee future success.
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Storms seem to repeat some years. Looks like next weekend is a prime chance for a nice event. The GFS has it. The Euro is suppressed to the south and east of here but Nina climo would suggest just enough Atlantic Ridge to nudge it back our way. If we can cash in tomorrow and get that one, it would be epic. It's great seeing multiple threats of snow inside D10 in the heart of winter. It doesn't get any better outside a nice Christmas snow. QBO dropping in winter is magic.
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The waiting game is on. The hours until snow actually starts is the hard time. Will it, won't it? I hate marginal set ups. I want a Miller A/Slider with 20s forum wide. Not sure where the HRRR had my temperature a few runs ago for this hour, but it's 36/32.
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I didn't look but assume their snow map is computer generated and likely close to the NMB snow map.
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Looks like MRX finally bit on the models here. Hopefully their faith us rewarded. It's drizzling here with a few melty flakes mixed in. I drove up to 2000 feet and it was snowing dime sized flakes. So Hopefully we can get some rate driven cooling.
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Steady light snow falling here now. Can't see Cross Mountain from about 2.5 miles away. At a basketball game and recording Tennessee vs Kentucky.
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MRX lowered my chance of > than 4 inches from 70+ percent to 40ish percent from last night into today. They seem convinced models aren't right here.
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Snow showers this morning at 35 degrees. 8-13 inches here across most modeling as the event is imminent. What could possibly go wrong?
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They finally released the AFD. Cited no winter storm warning here due to uncertainty, though I'm not sure how it's a certainty in parts of SWVA under a warning vs here. They got roasted on the last event when it didn't snow in Knoxville. I think they are gun shy.
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The GFS is just all in. It's either gonna bust wide open or score big. 13 inches imby that run.
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MRX upgraded SWVa to a winter storm warning. Left the watch for my area and added a tier of counties below the watch to a WWA. I'm curious to read their AFD explaining why they did so. It's certainly not based on model guidance from overnight. Also not sure why it takes so long for the AFD to come out on days when it's potentially snowy. It normally rolls out around 3 am, looks like it's going to be 2 hours behind this morning.
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Looks like MRX lowered my snow totals quite a bit from the forecast yesterday. Odd, the models actually all got better tonight. Oh well, boom or bust as the thread says.
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They will likely add winter products of some kind with their update here shortly. I am not sure what though. It's a tough forecast at best. Especially in the I-81 corridor.
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Low seemed to transfer at 42, then it moves from Central NC. NW into WVA. It's at 990 in West Virginia Sunday evening. That's a tropical storm strength. NE areas getting snow still. Low drops to 989 then starts moving due east through 48. Good run for most except the Knoxville area and NW Tennessee/SWKY.
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By 40 it's filled in precip in NE areas as frozen. The Low is about to cross into Virginia.
