John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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That definitely looks less strung out and more tilted that those two runs. I'd love to see it slightly ahead of the northern energy and let it tug it back some.
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Wait until 0z and it will change again I suspect.
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The NAM at 84 is similar to the 12z GFS with the 500mb vort in the SW. Probably going to see the 18z GFS evolve in similar fashion.
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06z GEFS had a sizable bump on the mean as well.
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Very cold behind the storm that run. Highs in the 20s and lows near 0 in snowpack areas.
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Another big improvement with the 06 GFS. Taps the gulf and gets East Tennessee into some heavy snow.
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It was marginal but the Euro is slightly better with some small dusting to an inch accumulations for more of the forum area with the clipper Friday. It was very light but better than 12z.
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The UKIE also doesn't look bad for a general 1 to 3 event from the Eastern Rim to NE Tennessee. But the UKIE has been pretty bad this year so who knows. Hopefully a lot of us manage to have snow in the air again this week. I still have about 1 to 1.5 inches on the ground in places that face north or east. It's melted off spots that get direct late afternoon and evening sun. There's school tomorrow but busses are on limited routes in some areas because the roads still aren't clear. So for here at least, it's been a pretty awesome January. I actually think we will have some shots at a big storm or two in February. Historically we would in a La Nina/Falling QBO pattern. Plus February likes to snow more than any other month the last decade or so. I don't think we will see anything like last year or February 2015, when it was weeks on end of bitter cold. But that 2015 winter was a similar QBO situation.
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Canadian is still okay for some of us next weekend. Upslope event on the GFS that probably a little overdone in the lower elevations but if you do well in upslope you will possibly get a few inches. The ICON lost anything impacted. Anything that does come still looks to come from the northern stream as everything else is suppressed into oblivion.
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The GEFS is more in line with the Canadian or ICON. Only one big hitter but quite a few 1-2 inch members vs the desert that is the OP.
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It's odd, no matter how the GFS starts handling the energy, the result is always the same. Super suppressed/OTS.
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The pattern is already changed/changing dramatically if modeling is accurate. We are shifting from well AN precip the first half of January to near drought conditions the second half. Moisture hasn't been an issue imby in several years now but apparently it will be the next 10-12 days. Counting the last several days of dry cold, the last few runs of the GFS/Euro/GEM would be the driest 15-17 day period I've experienced since the September into October flash drought several years ago. The GFS finally brings precip back around D13, but shows me at 17 days with around .10 qpf falling. The odd thing is, 24 hours ago the EURO had a sold inch of QPF falling over the next week or so, now it has .01 or so over the next 10 days. Gonna have to see it to believe it on the sudden drying up to that extent. On a minor positive note, the GEM and ICON aren't awful for the next Friday system.
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0z modeling is back in the crapper. If the Euro is correct we will have fire danger possible by the end of the run. 0 precip over 95 percent of the forum area through D10. Huge warm up vs 12z too. Basically 30 degrees warmer by the end of the run. Crazy swings on modeling right now. Usually a pattern reshuffle is coming when that happens.
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Sadly, no GEFS support for the OP. It's in the mostly dry camp through 186.
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Back to the very ugly look. Precip does everything it can do dodge most of the valley.
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The next weekend system is even more suppressed and looks more like a Miller B/transfer. A clipper dies out near here and a low pops over Jacksonville. Earlier the clipper was okay for a lot of us. Not it's just dry and barely spits out anything. A long way to go still but a Jacksonville to Bermuda track used to be what you want to see, not so much this year. Wild times that the NAO is + and storms are more suppressed in the East than they would be if it were negative.
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GFS has now lost the midweek system to the south. The one time all season it's folding towards the Euro. Looks like it would be a storm that would send moisture here but it just doesn't.
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This should be a massive winter storm but it looks like the GFS is going to turn it into a rainer over Tennessee.
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GFS was more suppressed with the first two events. The deep low wasn't as strong and missed really wide. A massive event coming in for Feb 1st but 10+ days away. We know song will change a lot.
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The similarities to 1984-85 continue. The extremes aren't here but snow fall dates, cold shots etc continue to line up. These last two days are liable to be the coldest of winter, just like 84-85. 84-85 featured a late January storm, then a big February storm and then it went warm. Looks like it may possibly roll out that way again this year.
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The DGZ is really low and the moisture is shallow and close to the ground as well. The crystals don't have time to form into a flake before they hit the ground. They form when the temperature is around 23 degrees a few hundred feet above feet surface.
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For some reason these really cold days always seem to have a few snow showers as we get towards sunset.
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There's a few flakes falling here. I'm in town right now so not sure what's going on at home. Looking towards Cross Mtn I'd guess that there's a steady snow above 2000ft. I've seen it evaporate down to flurries like this when it's snowing higher up plenty of times.
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It's bitter cold this afternoon, 23 degrees and snow flurries.
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The Euro is the great desert again this run, but it's been folding towards the GFS with surface features/storms this year. So hopefully the GFS is onto something next week.
