John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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There's a stalled warm front just south of Knox per one of the TV mets. Its in the 50s and 60s just south of it. I figured it would come north but has so far.
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The Euro run showed sleet here for the same storm, the sounding showed snow though. Last storm was the same. Kept showing sleet but here it was rain or snow, never sleet.
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Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
John1122 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Didn't see this here and was just posting about it. Thats virtually a zero chance event beyond 360. But warming up just enough to rain between extreme cold shots like it shows for next week would be a kick in the bottom. -
Man, that 18z GFS was ugly. 30s with rain even with 850s being below 32, then by the end a super SE ridge/Arctic divide like last winter. 3-5 inches of freezing rain in West Tennessee, near 70 in Knox. Virtually no chance it happens but it would be an all time worst ice storm candidate.
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There's cold trapped here, I would guess it's 5 or 6 degrees warmer a few hundred feet above me. I got up to 38.8 about an hour ago but am back down to 37.2 now. I still expect it to scour out ahead of the front.
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I expect us on the east side to raise up just ahead of the front.
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The upper levels won't be right until the front passes, so I'd guess it may be a little faster but not much.
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It's surprisingly cold today as the rain has moved in and started. I'm sitting at 36 degrees, I though it was suppose to be 45-47.
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The Euro has a ton of activity along the Gulf with a massive high in place in the Mid-West but slides several lows by with no amping at all. At one point there's a 1046 in Iowa and a L around New Orleans and nothing. There's another in the barrel and ready to fire behind that one. Looks like it may be a winner for us, at least on this run.
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It moved the energy west like the GFS, not quite as far though. Maybe 75-100 miles.
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When the Euro dumped on everyone from the western Plateau east, the 500mb energy was wrapping up over NE Texas/SW Arkansas.
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This is what Tellico is referring too. Watch the final frame vs the prior 3 runs.
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It's to sit energy in the 4 corners region and let it sit there longer than it does in reality.
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The RGem tried again and even got snow a little further NW but overall less moisture made it over the mountains vs earlier. There's a trailing piece of energy that the Euro was allowing to interact with the storm and that pulled it West. Now the Euro just blows it away. The GFS has been developing it behind the first piece and giving the Carolinas a long long duration overrunning event.
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Top of Cross Mtn above Caryville at around 3300 feet. That's 28 inch tires and the ground clearance is 13 inches on the machine at the front and back bars you can see barely above the snow. Around 15-18 inches of snow I'd guess since it's sitting on top of several packed down inches.
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It didn't come quite as far as it looked like it might. Still a nice event in the 81 corridor and NC border counties.
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NAM made another big NW move with its precip shield. Could just be the NAM doing NAM things with amping a system. This is going to be a big run for areas East of 75.
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I think the Euro now may be the most suppressed model.
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Didn't see much change on the GFS. It's not always been right this year but it locks on and doesn't change much so far.
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The Euro and all other guidance seem to handle the first event Wednesday and Wednesday night a lot differently too. You'd think they'd converge a bit more by now.
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The RGEM jumped more NW than the NAM. Has a nice 2-4 inch event East of 75.
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I will say this about the storm, it seems oddly warm here to get a deep south ice and snow storm like the one being modeled. Normally we'd have to be in the 10's or low 20s for highs and lows in the 0-5 range for the Florida Panhandle to have a winter weather threat.
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It's the NAM at 84 so not the best, but it's much further N/W with the precip than anything from 12z at hr90.
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I really hope the Canadian is right, because the GFS was one of the most frustrating runs ever. Dry cold while people to the S/E/N/W of the forum area get 6+ inches of snow.
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I'd say that Euro run will just about wrap it up. It's folded to the GFS several times this winter. Unfortunately this one was a fold that takes virtually all of us out of the game except for a few passing flakes, maybe. Not sure if there's any path back this close to the start of the system. Looks like we are gonna get missed to the north with system one, missed to the east with two and if the GFS is to be believed, missed to the south with system 3. The Carolinas will look like Texas last year by early next week.
