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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    It's odd, no matter how the GFS starts handling the energy, the result is always the same. Super suppressed/OTS.
  2. John1122
    The pattern is already changed/changing dramatically if modeling is accurate. We are shifting from well AN precip the first half of January to near drought conditions the second half. Moisture hasn't been an issue imby in several years now but apparently it will be the next 10-12 days. Counting the last several days of dry cold, the last few runs of the GFS/Euro/GEM would be the driest 15-17 day period I've experienced since the September into October flash drought several years ago. The GFS finally brings precip back around D13, but shows me at 17 days with around .10 qpf falling. The odd thing is, 24 hours ago the EURO had a sold inch of QPF falling over the next week or so, now it has .01 or so over the next 10 days. Gonna have to see it to believe it on the sudden drying up to that extent. On a minor positive note, the GEM and ICON aren't awful for the next Friday system.
  3. John1122
    0z modeling is back in the crapper. If the Euro is correct we will have fire danger possible by the end of the run. 0 precip over 95 percent of the forum area through D10. Huge warm up vs 12z too. Basically 30 degrees warmer by the end of the run. Crazy swings on modeling right now. Usually a pattern reshuffle is coming when that happens.
  4. John1122
    Sadly, no GEFS support for the OP. It's in the mostly dry camp through 186.
  5. John1122
    Back to the very ugly look. Precip does everything it can do dodge most of the valley.
  6. John1122
    The next weekend system is even more suppressed and looks more like a Miller B/transfer. A clipper dies out near here and a low pops over Jacksonville. Earlier the clipper was okay for a lot of us. Not it's just dry and barely spits out anything. A long way to go still but a Jacksonville to Bermuda track used to be what you want to see, not so much this year. Wild times that the NAO is + and storms are more suppressed in the East than they would be if it were negative.
  7. John1122
    GFS has now lost the midweek system to the south. The one time all season it's folding towards the Euro. Looks like it would be a storm that would send moisture here but it just doesn't.
  8. John1122
    This should be a massive winter storm but it looks like the GFS is going to turn it into a rainer over Tennessee.
  9. John1122
    GFS was more suppressed with the first two events. The deep low wasn't as strong and missed really wide. A massive event coming in for Feb 1st but 10+ days away. We know song will change a lot.
  10. John1122
    The similarities to 1984-85 continue. The extremes aren't here but snow fall dates, cold shots etc continue to line up. These last two days are liable to be the coldest of winter, just like 84-85. 84-85 featured a late January storm, then a big February storm and then it went warm. Looks like it may possibly roll out that way again this year.
  11. John1122
    The DGZ is really low and the moisture is shallow and close to the ground as well. The crystals don't have time to form into a flake before they hit the ground. They form when the temperature is around 23 degrees a few hundred feet above feet surface.
  12. John1122
    For some reason these really cold days always seem to have a few snow showers as we get towards sunset.
  13. John1122
    There's a few flakes falling here. I'm in town right now so not sure what's going on at home. Looking towards Cross Mtn I'd guess that there's a steady snow above 2000ft. I've seen it evaporate down to flurries like this when it's snowing higher up plenty of times.
  14. John1122
    It's bitter cold this afternoon, 23 degrees and snow flurries.
  15. John1122
    The Euro is the great desert again this run, but it's been folding towards the GFS with surface features/storms this year. So hopefully the GFS is onto something next week.
  16. John1122
    If you want to see a storm that's probably going to trend NW, look for the Northern energy to be behind the southern and let it phase. That's what the Euro was showing early with the system that's way East but the northern stream ended up getting out ahead of the Southern energy and it had nothing to pull it NW.
  17. John1122
    I got around a half inch on raise surfaces and on top of the snow. The road where the pavement was wet just had a few patches of snow. It snowed pretty hard for a while though. This has been an excellent month from the Plateau west and less good to the East but I think almost everyone except parts of Chattanooga has gotten a couple of inches. I just hope the current pattern can pull a rabbit out for everyone. It would be a shame to see a BN Jan with AN precip and it warms up just enough to rain a few times, then the pattern relaxes.
  18. John1122
    The 06z GFS is back to a Miller A look that somehow cools enough on the Plateau and NE TN to snow, but rains to the Ohio River.
  19. John1122
    I still had about 2 inches on the ground, it's covered vehicles now.
  20. John1122
    Flipped over down in LaFollette at 35 degrees.
  21. John1122
    Pretty heavy snow here. Dumping quarter sized flakes.
  22. John1122
    I've changed over to snow. Precip is broken right now but still a nice slug of it to the west if it doesn't break up.
  23. John1122
    Outstanding! Congratulations.
  24. John1122
    Mighty dry on the Euro too, basically no precip for a week after today outside the mountains with some light snow. Hopefully it flips back. Last night at this time it was a storm parade.
  25. John1122
    Man, that GFS run was even worse than the last. The whole state with less than 3/10ths inch of precip from day 2-15.
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