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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    They almost always get a little lower, and colder further south and east in these situations. Hopefully you don't get the 1 inch ice totals. Those just smash the power grid.
  2. John1122
    There was a big winter storm Valentines Day 2016. It was ice/sleet in lower elevations and a front end snow thump along the Plateau and NE areas.
  3. John1122
    For travel, an inch of snow and sleet plus .10 ice, that's awful travel.
  4. John1122
    For whatever reason, January 28th-30th shows up repeatedly in history for winter storms, and we had one this year. The other time frame that really sticks out is Feb 13th-15th. I'm sure it's anecdotal but it seems like we see a lot of Valentine's Day winter events.
  5. John1122
    It definitely is for a lot of us. I'd love to see the Tri to Chattanooga section of the Valley get cranked up too. It's crazy that Austin Texas has had three major winter storms since Knoxville has had one.
  6. John1122
    They missed one event in Tazewell as far as how much fell. I believe they had something like 1 or 2 inches when 4-5 fell per a relative I have that lives there. The Newcomb station is the one I refer to that's a bit NW of me. Them getting 17 inches is particularly impressive because they are only 978 feet in elevation in a deep valley. Most of Campbell County is well over 1000 feet, if you live below 1000 feet in the southern part of the county you're under Norris Lake.
  7. John1122
    From MRX for January. Nashville had 9.5 per OHX, Jamestown 13, Allardt 20.1. Couldn't find Crossville data. I ended up with 19.8 inches in January. Sad that 4 inches is the most snow in Knoxville in January since 2014. Also wild to set all time monthly record highs, not get remotely close to any record lows, but still finish BN for the month temp wise.
  8. John1122
    It was 47 at TYS when I posted that, 44 at Tri, 43 at Crossville and 53 at Chattanooga. 32 in Middlesboro and Jacksboro.
  9. John1122
    Sitting at 31 degrees right now. A good 13-20 degrees cooler than the rest of the area outside of Middlesboro. Some reason there's just a cold pocket hanging on here. My snow survived another day in the shady spots that face North and East. So it will survive at least part of tomorrow too.
  10. John1122
    The biggest question I have from the OHX statement is that the ground is warm. Not that it matters with freezing rain, as it's biggest threats are to elevated surfaces like limbs, powerlines and bridges. The 5-day average soil temperature just north of Nashville is 31.2.
  11. John1122
    I've often found in these situations the cold creeps further S/E than modeled. JKL crept a little south with their winter storm watch this update. I think OHX will eventually have to issue winter products and that MEG will have to move theirs east. Hopefully our western forum guys aren't in the dark for days on end like some of the big 90s ice storms.
  12. John1122
    It's becoming more and more likely that at the minimum, western forum area members see a dangerous ice event as the week unfolds. The modeling is currently trending towards heavy ice accumulation for West Tennessee, moderate to heavy for the mid-State and Kentucky, and light to moderate over the Plateau areas. These ice amounts would be devastating for trees and the power grid. West Tennessee is actually one of the most freezing rain prone areas in the United States and these massive ice storms happen there.
  13. John1122
    The GFS just super amps everything this year. It's like the NAM. It tended to do that when it was the para. It amps these storms and shows 20 and 30 inch snowfall totals over large areas. So I don't really trust it's handling of the weekend system as of now. Ironically, as soon as the Euro and UK went to it's solution for mid-week, it started trending towards their prior solutions.
  14. John1122
    It's odd to see that track and not a bigger precip field. Oneida, London KY, Somerset KY and Middlesboro KY all recorded 0 qpf, as did Big Stone Gap and Wise VA. However, Pennington Gap and Abington got 4 to 5 inches.
  15. John1122
    I believe it was a system that tracked South and East of the forecast area and Oneida and into Kentucky was too far NW. It was February 15th 2004. There was an arc of snow from Cumberland, to Morgan, to Anderson, to Campbell and Claiborne County and east along the border but not as heavy to the East. I missed work the next day because I had 8 inches of snow and people in West Knoxville didn't believe me. Wartburg, Lancing, and Southeast Scott like Winfield had 8 to 12 inches as well. Norris had 4 inches and so did Tazewell to the East. Johnson City got 2 inches but almost .8 precip. So it must have changed over to snow or from snow there. Morristown had 1.7 inches of snow, and .7 precip. Knoxville got rain, Oak Ridge got rain, Lenoir City got rain.
  16. John1122
    It appears the snow depth maps are in error. It looks like the very highest spots in Cumberland Co got 2-3 inches per OHX and Crossville proper got 1/4th inch or so. It was the oddest event. It was mainly a snow event for the Tri-Cities and randomly, Campbell County. Oneida got 1 inch. My uncle in Speedwell on the Claiborne/Campbell line got 1 inch. Campbell County got hammered, my power was out for several days. After I had about 5 inches down MRX issued a Winter Storm Warning for the Northern Plateau but it never snowed much in Scott/Claiborne/Morgan. "PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN555 AM CST SAT DEC 19 2009...SNOWFALL REPORTS ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU THROUGH 530 AM...GENERALLY LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THECUMBERLAND PLATEAU OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHESIN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WERE REPORTED IN CUMBERLAND COUNTY.THE FOLLOWING ARE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BY COUNTY.CUMBERLAND....LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH EXCEPT 2 TO 3 INCHES INISOLATED AREAS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.FENTRESS...LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH.PICKETT...LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH.OVERTON...ONE HALF INCH.WARREN...LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH.CLAY...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH.
  17. John1122
    The Euro folded to the GFS for the most part, for the mid-week system. Will have to see if it maintains that or not. But it went from a major winter storm at 12z and 0z to nada today.
  18. John1122
    The Canadian took a step towards the Euro with the midweek system. Hopefully the Euro keeps up the S/E jogs.
  19. John1122
    MRX map for this one. It is not correct here. The 3 and 4 inch area in Campbell isn't big enough. I saw their storm reports had LaFollette at 3.2 inches. It's 2.4 on here. They have a Co-op site in NW Campbell, they erroneously reported 1.8 inches of snow there in their local reports. It was corrected a couple hours later on their storm reports page to 4.8 inches and they mention the correction. Yet the spot in NW Campbell where the 1-2 inch circle is is at the area of the co-op site. They are generally the official reporting station in Morristown, we know they reported 1.5 inches, they report 0.1 on the map for some reason. Knoxtron reported 1.5 inches by McGhee-Tyson, Stove reported 1.25 at least, Knoxville listed as 0.2. They even made a point to put out the map of 1.5-2 inch snow streaks this morning but they don't appear on this map. This is why snowfall averages and data can't be trusted here. It's chronically underreported.
  20. John1122
    UKIE is a monster winter storm for most of the forum. I believe this is mostly ice or sleet other than West Tennessee/Arkansas.
  21. John1122
    GFS continues honking low road systems in the extended. The Euro is another big time ice event in a few days. It's further South and East again this run vs 12z. It's looking like it won't cut the Apps at all.
  22. John1122
    I'm at 16, there's a 15 and an 18 nearby. Areas with less snow are near 20. Do they have less snow now than your area?
  23. John1122
    There was amazingly sharp cutoffs outside those bands in the valley.
  24. John1122
    MRX map of the snow streaks. Red=snow cover.
  25. John1122
    Western areas are looking at a potentially crippling ice event. The first half of February, if the MJO does work through the COD into Ph 3, should provide opportunity for continued cold/frozen chances into the mid-month at least. Super charged cold vs a SE Ridge like last February is possible, though PH 3 actually shows up as nearly nationwide BN winter temps. That tells me you see what models are showing. Cold builds in the west and rolls east rather than getting hung up anywhere. The QBO also remains deeply negative. Around -26 at 30mb. That's one of the lowest winter readings of the last 30 years. I know I've had it better than most this year, with right at 20 inches of snow this month and there's been at least some snow on the ground all but around 4 days this month. My mom, who is in her early 70s, remarked that this reminds her of winters when she grew up, a good portion of which were the late 50s and 1960s. Legendary Tennessee winters. Those winters usually featured some big hitters in February and even March.
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